AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday on safe haven inflows as coronavirus cases continue to mount and the idea of pre-election stimulus in the U.S. is officially consigned to the trash. The French government on Wednesday declared a public health state of emergency as the increase of coronavirus cases in the country reached worrying levels. France is just one of a number of countries battling a second wave of the Covid-19 virus, with new cases hitting 100,000 daily in Europe, and governments are having to make tough decisions on localized lockdowns. This comes as U.S. stimulus plans appear to fatally bogged down, as far as having a timeline ahead of the elections in early November is concerned. Delay has supported the dollar for a few weeks, by weighing on investors' sentiment and boosting demand for safer assets. That said, many traders are now looking past the election, with the polls increasingly suggesting a victory for the Democrat candidate Joe Biden. The European Union and Britain now expected to prolong Brexit talks past a mid-October deadline to try to overcome a few tricky issues holding up a new trade agreement. European Union leaders are set to meet in Brussels later Thursday to discuss progress in the Brexit discussions. Although the two sides retain differences on the three key issues of fisheries, fair competition and methods of solving disputes, with cable around 1.30, the forex market seems to expect progress in the near future. The dollar inched higher on Thursday as rising coronavirus cases and scant progress towards a U.S. stimulus deal unsettled investors, while the Aussie dropped to a one-week low after the central bank chief hinted of a possible rate cut or bond buying. France has imposed curfews as autumn brings a steep rise in infections, and the fear is that a new wave of lockdowns could stall the global recovery just as hopes for U.S. stimulus before the Nov. 3 election are fading. The safe-haven yen stayed just shy of a two-week peak on the dollar. The greenback held or gained ground elsewhere, except against sterling which had jumped on signs of progress in Brexit talks. Slightly better-than-expected Australian employment data did little to shift those expectations. Delay has supported the dollar for a few weeks, by weighing on investors' sentiment and boosting demand for safer assets. But a full blown rally has so far been staved off by the expectation that spending happens eventually. clung to a 0.5% overnight gain as the European Union and Britain were set to prolong Brexit talks past a mid-October deadline to try to bridge stubborn gaps holding up a new trade agreement, according to sources and documents. European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday will pressure Britain for concessions, saying a trillion euros worth of trade could be sunk if London does not budge on fisheries, fair competition and solving disputes.
  • Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, extending their 2% gains from the previous session, after data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week, while OPEC and its allies were seen complying with their pact to curb output in September. Oil markets climbed for a third day despite resurgence in COVID-19 infections across Europe potentially denting fuel demand. The American Petroleum Institute industry group said U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories all fell in the week to Oct. 9, according to a report released after market close on Wednesday. Crude stockpiles fell by 5.4 mn barrels, while distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 3.9 mn barrels. Those drawdowns were nearly double analysts' expectations in a Reuter’s poll. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to release its weekly data on Thursday, a day later than normal following a public holiday. The OPEC and its allies, together called OPEC+, had 102% compliance with their agreement to cut oil supply in September, two OPEC+ sources told Reuters ahead of a meeting of the OPEC+ technical committee on Thursday to review the oil market.
  • Gold was down on Thursday morning in Asia as the dollar gained strength. Deadlocked U.S. COVID-19 stimulus talks kept the greenback up. Gold fell in morning trade, with the dollar strengthening as investors looked to the safe-haven currency against the increasing likelihood of no U.S. COVID-19 relief measures being in place before the Nov. 13 U.S. elections. A rapid rise in new coronavirus cases in Europe is also pushing the dollar, with new restrictions coming into force. In the U.S., negotiations over COVID-19 stimulus have stalled, with House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin unable to reach agreement over the details of any package. European COVID-19 cases continue to rise in the major economies, with Germany, the U.K., and France all beginning to put in place further restrictions such as closing schools and introducing regional lockdowns. The threat to economic recovery sent investors toward the greenback and safe-haven investments, reducing any appetite for risk. The world's mines will produce 3,368 tonnes of gold this year, down 4.6% from 2019 and the lowest in 5 years, but high bullion prices will help to push up output by 8.8% to a record 3,664 tonnes in 2021, consultancy Metals Focus said on Wednesday The likely extension of the Brexit trade deal discussions also gave the yellow metal downward pressure, with talks between Britain and the E.U. now likely to be extended beyond U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s self-imposed cut-off date of Oct. 15. Markets are currently looking to the outcomes of this week’s European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings for indications of market direction.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th October 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,916-1,934 1,944 1,955-1,968
Silver-XAG 24.50-25.30 26.05 26.80-27.50
Crude Oil 42.00 42.50 43.10-43.85
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1860 1.1900 1.1950-1.2010
GBP/USD 1.3020-1.3100 1.3190 1.3250-1.3400
USD/JPY 105.50-105.90 106.90 107.60-108.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th October 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,890-1,882 1,875 1,865-1,848
Silver-XAG 24.00 23.30 22.90-22.20
Crude Oil 40.80-40.00 39.70 39.00-38.40
EURO/USD 1.1690 1.1635 1.1570-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2940-1.2900 1.2820 1.2710-1.2670
USD/JPY 104.90 104.30 103.90-103.10

Intra-Day Strategy (15th October 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1912.86/oz and low of US$1882.27/oz. Gold up 0.552% at US$1900.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1916-1810 with risk below 1810, targeting 1934-1944 and 1955-1964-1976. Sell below 1934-1980 keeping stop loss closing above 1955, targeting 1916-1900-1882 and 1869-1862-1850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,890-1,882
S2     1,875
S3     1,865-1,848
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,916-1,934
R2     1,944
R3     1,955-1,968

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.576

Buy
20-DMA   1906.39 Buy
50-DMA  

1944.06

Buy
100-DMA   1855.12 Buy
200-DMA   1736.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.45 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$24.62/oz and low of US$23.85/oz settled up by 0.398% at US$24.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 24.00-21.05 targeting 24.50-25.10 and 26.00-26.50, stop breakage below 21.50. Sell below 24.50-28.00 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.00-23.30-22.90 and 22.20-21.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.00
S2     23.30
S3     22.90-22.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.50-25.30
R2     26.05
R3     26.80-27.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.681 Buy
20-DMA   26.82 Buy
50-DMA   25.61 Buy
100-DMA   21.51 Buy
200-DMA   19.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.914 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US41.38/bbl, intraday low of US$40.07/bbl and settled up by 1.525% to close at US$41.27/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 40.80-37.50 with risk daily closing below 37.50 and targeting 41.20-42.00-42.50 and 43.10-43.85. Sell in between 40.80-43.85 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 40.10-39.70-39.00 and 38.40-37.50-36.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     40.80-40.00
S2     39.70
S3     39.00-38.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     42.00
R2     42.50
R3     43.10-43.85

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.194 Sell
20-DMA   39.86 Sell
50-DMA   40.76 Sell
100-DMA   39.92 Buy
200-DMA   38.96 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0111 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1719/EUR, high of US$1.1770/EUR and settled the day up by 0.019% to close at US$1.1744/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1750-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1800-1.1860 and 1.1900-1.1955-1.2010. Sell below 1.1800-1.2000 targeting 1.1690-1.1635-1.1570 and 1.1500-1.1460 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2050.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1690
S2     1.1635
S3     1.1570-1.1500

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800-1.1860
R2     1.1900
R3     1.1950-1.2010

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.726 Buy
20-DMA   1.1758 Buy
50-DMA   1.1800 Buy
100-DMA   1.1548 Buy
200-DMA   1.1258 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   64.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2862/GBP, high of US$1.3063/GBP and settled the day down by 0.589% to close at US$1.3011/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3020-1.3400 with targets at 1.2940-1.2820-1.2735 and 1.2650-1.2600 stop-loss should be 1.3270. Buy above 1.2940-1.2600 with targets 1.3020-1.3100-1.3190 and 1.3250-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2940-1.2900
S2     1.2820
S3     1.2710-1.2670

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3020-1.3100
R2     1.3190
R3     1.3250-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.544

Buy
20-DMA   1.2890 Sell
50-DMA   1.3019 Buy
100-DMA   1.2830 Buy
200-DMA   1.2707 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY105.02/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.50/USD and settled the day up by 0.002% at JPY105.16/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.90-104.50-103.90 and 103.50-103.10. Long positions above 105.50-103.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     104.90
S2     104.30
S3     103.90-103.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     105.50-105.90
R2     106.90
R3     107.60-108.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.716 Buy
20-DMA   105.38 Sell
50-DMA   105.77 Sell
100-DMA   106.42 Sell
200-DMA   107.40 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   19.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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