Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, ending a tough week as it saw losses against the euro and its largest weekly drop against the yen in a month. U.S. President Donald Trump and Joe Biden participated in a restrained final presidential debate before the Nov. 3 presidential election earlier in the day. Although the dollar remained above Wednesday’s seven-week low, it was down 0.7% for the week and remained in the bottom half of a months-long range. Trump was more restrained than during the first presidential debate on Sep. 29, where he constantly interrupted both Biden and moderator Chris Wallace. Bookmaker Ladbrokes (LON:LCL) tweeted that betting markets showed a small movement in Trump’s favor in the immediate aftermath of the debate. However, some investors expected caution and no big moves ahead of the election. The yen saw its highest weekly rise since mid-September, reversing some overnight losses after House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed optimism about a consensus on the latest stimulus measures. Investors also turned to the safe-have yen over the anticipated turbulent trade ahead of the election. The yuan had held onto gains against the greenback as Wang Chunying, spokeswoman for China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), told a news conference that the yuan has been more stable than expected. The pound saw losses on Thursday over the Brexit uncertainty, with investors monitoring the intensified talks between the U.K. and European Union, started on Thursday as a last-ditch effort to reach a deal. The U.K. and Europe will release Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures due later in the day, with investors gauging the economic damage as the region battles a second wave of COVID-19 cases. The U.S. will also release its PMI figures later in the day.
• The dollar took stock at the end of a poor week on Friday, having shed about a cent against the euro and suffered its largest weekly drop against the yen in a month, as investors began to wager on a Biden presidency and big U.S. stimulus. Daily moves were slight and mostly in the dollar's favour early in the Asia session as traders awaited the final U.S. presidential debate, which begins at 0100 GMT. Markets could be sensitive to any vote-shifting moments as campaigning hits fever pitch ahead of polling day on Nov. 3. Persistent hopes that Congress might pass a stimulus package before the election and confidence that spending follows anyway, no matter who gets elected, has driven a selloff in the bond market in anticipation of more government borrowing. The dollar has been sold through the week because the prospect of stimulus has supported investors' mood and their appetite for riskier currencies instead, while underlying caution has also given the safe-haven Japanese yen a boost. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar inched 0.1% higher early on Friday and is about 0.7% firmer this week, with further gains capped by a growing expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates when it meets in November. British, European and U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index figures are due later on Friday. Sterling slipped overnight on uncertainty over Brexit outlook, but it is up 1.2% this week and is clinging on above $1.30 thanks to hopes that Britain and the European Union can reach a trade deal before a transition period ends on Dec. 31.Analysts said the debate may not move markets immediately, but that political uncertainty over the election meant for a risky environment.
• Oil prices held on to gains from the previous session on Friday, after Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated he would be prepared to extend record supply cuts in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Putin said on Thursday that Russia did not see a need for major oil producers to alter a deal on cutting global supply, but did not rule out extending oil cuts if market conditions warranted. His comments were the clearest indication so far from Russia, one of the world's top oil producers, that it is prepared to extend unprecedented curbs on output to meet the demand slump caused by the pandemic. Russia has allied with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporters (OPEC), in a grouping known as OPEC+, in making the cuts to production that are due to be lifted at the end of year. The spiralling numbers of new infections of COVID-19 in Europe and the U.S. is likely to keep a lid on prices, analysts say, with fresh coronavirus restrictions suggesting more pressure on fuel demand. Several U.S. states reported record daily increases in infections on Thursday, further evidence that the pandemic is accelerating as cooler weather takes hold in many parts of the country. France extended curfews for about two-thirds of the country's population, while Belgium's foreign minister was taken into intensive care with COVID-19, as the second wave of the pandemic swept across Europe. Although Russia did not see a need to alter the OPEC deal cutting global oil supply from earlier in the year, she did not rule out extending the cuts if market conditions warranted, Putin said on Thursday. His comments come as OPEC mulls easing the cuts, in place until the end of the year, and as the worsening COVID-19 pandemic threatens to further dampen fuel demand. They were also Russia’s clearest push for the extension of cuts to avoid a supply glut.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1925.94/oz and low of US$1894.25/oz. Gold down 1.052% at US$1903.42/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1900-1870 with risk below 1870, targeting 1916-1934-1944 and 1955-1964-1976. Sell below 1916-1980 keeping stop loss closing above 1955, targeting 1900-1882 and 1869-1862-1850.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$25.07/oz and low of US$24.36/oz settled up by 1.07% at US$24.69/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 24.00-21.05 targeting 24.50-25.10 and 26.00-26.50, stop breakage below 21.50. Sell below 24.50-28.00 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.00-23.30-22.90 and 22.20-21.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US41.05/bbl, intraday low of US$39.75/bbl and settled up by 1.305% to close at US$40.58/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 40.00-37.50 with risk daily closing below 37.50 and targeting 40.50-41.20-42.00 and 42.50 43.10. Sell in between 40.80-43.85 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 40.10-39.70-39.00 and 38.40-37.50-36.40.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1810/EUR, high of US$1.1866/EUR and settled the day down by 0.328% to close at US$1.1816/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1800-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1860 and 1.1900-1.1955-1.2010. Sell below 1.1860-1.2000 targeting 1.1690-1.1635-1.1570 and 1.1500-1.1460 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2050.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3069/GBP, high of US$1.3151/GBP and settled the day down by 0.509% to close at US$1.3075/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3490 with targets at 1.3020-1.2940-1.2820 and 1.2735-1.2650 stop-loss should be 1.3270. Buy above 1.3020-1.2600 with targets 1.3100-1.3190 1.3250 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2650.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY104.47/USD and made an intraday high of JPY104.91/USD and settled the day up by 0.233% at JPY104.83/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.90-104.50-103.90 and 103.50-103.10. Long positions above 105.50-103.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.