Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar handed back some recent gains against most of its major rivals on Tuesday, as strong regional economic data helped to offset worries about a second wave of COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States. Profits at China's industrial firms rose for a fifth straight month in September and South Korea's economy roared back to growth, official data showed. That supported the yuan and sent the won soaring close to a seven-month peak. It also unwound some of the previous day's modest dollar gains against major currencies amid an equities selloff driven by a resurgence in coronavirus infections Christopher Wong, senior FX strategist at Maybank in Singapore, said the region's firm handle on the coronavirus, especially in North Asia, was also a positive factor, with Japan, Singapore, South Korea and China combined posting fewer than a thousand new cases a day through October. That compares with the United States, Russia and France, all of which hit fresh records with tens of thousands of new daily coronavirus infections this week. Europe needs a "serious acceleration" in the fight against the coronavirus, with the spectre of further shutdowns looming, a top World Health Organization official said on Monday. Growing wariness about the U.S. presidential election kept a lid on large currency movements, however. Since the vote is just a week away many investors appear to have already figured out their positions. Data shows long bets on the yen shrank for a fourth straight week last week, as investors wagered on a victory for Democrat Joe Biden, though short bets against the yen also fell - pointing to heightened uncertainty around the vote. If the Democrats also secure the Senate, a Biden-led administration is likely to press for a larger coronavirus aid package, lifting sentiment, widening the U.S. current account deficit and weakening the dollar. Ahead on Tuesday, investors are looking to U.S. consumer confidence figures and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index at 1400 GMT, as well as the progress of the virus in Europe and the United States. Elsewhere, the Taiwan dollar rose by as much as 1% in Asia to a more than nine-year high. The Turkish lira hit a record low on Monday amid a slew of geopolitical concerns and as a surprise central bank decision to keep its policy rate on hold last week reveberates through markets.
• Oil prices eked out small gains on Tuesday after recent sharp losses, but sentiment remained subdued as a surge in global coronavirus cases hit prospects for crude demand while supply is rising. A lack of progress on agreeing a U.S. coronavirus relief package added to market gloom, although U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Monday she hoped a deal can be reached before the Nov. 3 elections. A wave of coronavirus infections sweeping across the United States, Russia, France and many other countries has undermined the global economic outlook, with record numbers of new cases forcing some countries to impose fresh restrictions as winter looms.[MKTS/GLOB] Prices got some support from a potential drop in U.S. production as oil companies began shutting offshore rigs with the approach of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday the worst is over for the crude market. But his comment contradicted an earlier remark from OPEC's secretary general, who said any oil market recovery may take longer than hoped as coronavirus infections rise around the world. Meanwhile, Libyan production is expected to reach 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the coming weeks, the country's national oil company said on Friday, a quicker return than many analysts had predicted. That is likely to complicate efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to restrict output to offset weak demand. OPEC+ - made up of OPEC and allies including Russia - is planning to increase production by 2 million bpd from the start of 2021 after record output cuts earlier this year. An analyst survey by Reuters ahead of data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday estimated that U.S. crude stocks rose in the week to Oct. 23, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell. Meanwhile, Libyan production is expected to reach 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the coming weeks, the country's national oil company said on Friday, a quicker return than many analysts had predicted. That is likely to complicate efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to restrict output to offset weak demand. OPEC+ - made up of OPEC and allies including Russia - is planning to increase production by 2 million bpd from the start of 2021 after record output cuts earlier this year. An analyst survey by Reuters ahead of data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday estimated that U.S. crude stocks rose in the week to Oct. 23, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1908.57/oz and low of US$1891.25/oz. Gold down 0.0325% at US$1901.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1900-1870 with risk below 1870, targeting 1916-1934-1944 and 1955-1964-1976. Sell below 1916-1980 keeping stop loss closing above 1955, targeting 1900-1882 and 1869-1862-1850.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$24.64/oz and low of US$24.08/oz settled down by 1.478% at US$24.26/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 24.00-21.05 targeting 24.50-25.10 and 26.00-26.50, stop breakage below 21.50. Sell below 24.50-28.00 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.00-23.30-22.90 and 22.20-21.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US39.79/bbl, intraday low of US$38.35/bbl and settled down by 3.460% to close at US$39.59/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 38.90-36.50 with risk daily closing below 36.50 and targeting 39.70-40.50-41.20 and 42.00-42.50-43.10. Sell in between 39.50-43.85 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 39.00-38.40-37.50 and 36.40-36.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1802/EUR, high of US$1.1859/EUR and settled the day down by 0.404% to close at US$1.1808/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1800-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1860 and 1.1900-1.1955-1.2010. Sell below 1.1860-1.2000 targeting 1.1690-1.1635-1.1570 and 1.1500-1.1460 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2050.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2991/GBP, high of US$1.3074/GBP and settled the day down by 0.240% to close at US$1.3016/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3490 with targets at 1.3020-1.2940-1.2820 and 1.2735-1.2650 stop-loss should be 1.3270. Buy above 1.3020-1.2600 with targets 1.3100-1.3190 1.3250 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2650.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY104.64/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.04/USD and settled the day up by 0.168% at JPY104.83/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.00-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.50-103.90 and 103.50-103.10. Long positions above 104.30-102.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.