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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was largely unchanged in early European trade Thursday, holding onto recent gains as new lockdowns in Europe to combat the surge in Covid-19 cases prompted demand for safe havens. Concerns of further damage to the economic recovery have grown as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel returned their countries back into lockdown on Wednesday, after recording new record levels of cases in the second wave of the Covid-19 virus. The European Central Bank may move up additional stimulus - which many expect for December's meeting - to today's meeting. It's also a heavy day for U.S. data, with the weekly report on jobless claims in focus. Third-quarter GDP will provide for more dramatic headlines, but the data has essentially been overtaken by the events of the last few weeks already. The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rates and asset purchases unchanged earlier Thursday, as widely expected. However, the central bank cut its growth forecast for the year ending in March to a 5.5% contraction from a 4.7% drop, citing a delayed recovery in the services sector. GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.3002, showing some strength as European Union and U.K. negotiators continue discussions over the trading arrangements between the two blocs, raising hopes that a Brexit deal could be reached by early November.
  • The dollar held gains against a basket of major currencies on Thursday as escalating coronavirus cases in Europe stoked fears across markets that fresh lockdowns would further hit the already fragile economic recovery. Concerns of further damage to the economic recovery grew as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel ordered their countries back into lockdown on Wednesday, as a massive second wave of coronavirus cases threatened to overwhelm Europe. Amid surging cases across Europe, the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday is expected to resist pressure to unveil new stimulus measures, but will likely pave the way for action in December. Traders also braced for volatility with the U.S election less than a week away, while the country, like Europe, also faces an increase in coronavirus infections With former Vice President Joe Biden consistently leading in the polls over President Donald Trump, traders cautiously bet on his victory and a possible "blue wave" outcome, where Democrats control both chambers of Congress. Data due on Thursday includes U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product, which analysts expect to show record growth but not enough to make up for the pandemic impact. The greenback steadied against the Japanese yen at 104.33 yen , having dropped to a more than one-month low on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan ends its two-day policy meeting later in the day and analysts expect the central bank to keep monetary settings unchanged.
  • Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending a 5% slump in the previous session, as governments' renewed restrictions to curb a second wave of coronavirus infections and signs of a growing global oil supply glut send prices tumbling. Amid surging COVID-19 cases in Europe, France will require people to stay home for all but essential activities as of Friday, while Germany will shut bars, restaurants and theatres from Nov. 2 through the end of the month. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, plan on tapering their production cuts in January 2021 from a current 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to around 5.7 million bpd. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday provided further evidence of the growing glut: U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 4.3 million barrels in the week to Oct. 23, a bigger increase than expected. Meanwhile, the prospects for any shift in the bitter trade dispute between China and the United States, whose relations have sunk to the lowest point in decades over a range of issues, remain unclear. In an interview with Reuters six days before the U.S. election next week, top advisers to Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden said he would consult with America's main allies before deciding on the future of U.S. tariffs on China, seeking "collective leverage" to strengthen his hand against Beijing if he is elected. Oil had initially rebounded slightly from overnight losses in Asian morning trade on technical support and the prospect of tighter short-term supply as Hurricane Zeta slammed Louisiana. But the hurricane is forecast to weaken into a non-tropical gale-force low by Thursday morning in the United States, and the return of U.S. production will add to existing oversupply, as Libya rapidly ramps up output after an eight-month blockade.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th October 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,890-1900 1,916 1,934-1,944
Silver-XAG 24.00-25.00 25.65 26.05-26.80
Crude Oil 37.70-38.00 38.90 39.70-40.00
EURO/USD 1.1790-1.1860 1.1900 1.1950-1.2010
GBP/USD 1.3020-1.3100 1.3190 1.3250-1.3400
USD/JPY 104.90-105.40 105.90 106.90-107.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th October 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,882-1,875 1,868 1,860-1,854
Silver-XAG 23.3-22.900 22.20 21.50-21.00
Crude Oil 36.50-35.70 35.00 34.75-34.10
EURO/USD 1.1710 1.1635-1.1570 1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2940 1.2900 1.2820-1.2750
USD/JPY 104.10-103.90 103.10 102.50-102.00

Intra-Day Strategy (29th October 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1910.78/oz and low of US$1897.80/oz. Gold down 1.579% at US$1876.37/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1882-1854 with risk below 1854, targeting 1887-1900-1916 and 1934-1944-1956. Sell below 1887-1955 keeping stop loss closing above 1955, targeting 1882-1868-1860-1854.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,882-1,875
S2     1,868
S3     1,860-1,854
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,890-1900
R2     1,916
R3     1,934-1,944

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.576

Buy
20-DMA   1903.03 Buy
50-DMA  

1918.97

Buy
100-DMA   1886.12 Buy
200-DMA   1766.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.45 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$24.55/oz and low of US$23.01/oz settled down by 4.14% at US$23.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 24.00-21.05 targeting 24.50-25.10 and 26.00-26.50, stop breakage below 21.50. Sell below 24.50-28.00 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.00-23.30-22.90 and 22.20-21.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.3-22.900
S2     22.20
S3     21.50-21.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.00-25.00
R2     25.65
R3     26.05-26.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.681 Buy
20-DMA   24.21 Buy
50-DMA   25.29 Buy
100-DMA   23.25 Buy
200-DMA   19.59 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.914 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US39.90/bbl, intraday low of US$38.59/bbl and settled up by 0.695% to close at US$38.95/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 36.50-34.10 with risk daily closing below 34.10 and targeting 37.70-38.00-38.90 and 39.70-40.50-41.20 Sell in between 39.50-43.85 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 36.40-35.70-35.00 and 34.75-34.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     36.50-35.70
S2     35.00
S3     34.75-34.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     37.70-38.00
R2     38.90
R3     39.70-40.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.498 Sell
20-DMA   39.95 Sell
50-DMA   40.28 Sell
100-DMA   40.37 Buy
200-DMA   37.81 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.016 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1717/EUR, high of US$1.1787/EUR and settled the day down by 0.352% to close at US$1.1745/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1710-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1790-1.1860- 1.1900 and 1.1955-1.2010. Sell below 1.1790-1.2010 targeting 1.1690-1.1635-1.1570 and 1.1500-1.1460 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2050.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1710
S2     1.1635-1.1570
S3     1.1500

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1790-1.1860
R2     1.1900
R3     1.1950-1.2010

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.804 Buy
20-DMA   1.1727 Buy
50-DMA   1.1799 Buy
100-DMA   1.1604 Buy
200-DMA   1.1282 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2915/GBP, high of US$1.3063/GBP and settled the day down by 0.445% to close at US$1.2983/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3020-1.3490 with targets at 1.2940-1.2820 and 1.2735-1.2650 stop-loss should be 1.3270. Buy above 1.2940-1.2600 with targets 1.3100-1.3190 1.3250 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2940
S2     1.2900
S3     1.2820-1.2750

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3020-1.3100
R2     1.3190
R3     1.3250-1.3400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.544

Buy
20-DMA   1.2890 Sell
50-DMA   1.3019 Buy
100-DMA   1.2830 Buy
200-DMA   1.2707 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY104.10/USD and made an intraday high of JPY104.55/USD and settled the day down by 0.154% at JPY104.30/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.00-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.50-103.90 and 103.50-103.10. Long positions above 104.10-102.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     104.10-103.90
S2     103.10
S3     102.50-102.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     104.90-105.40
R2     105.90
R3     106.90-107.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.726 Buy
20-DMA   105.25 Sell
50-DMA   105.51 Sell
100-DMA   106.09 Sell
200-DMA   107.15 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   18.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

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