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  • The dollar maintained overnight gains in early European trade Friday, while the euro struggled near four-week lows as new Covid-inpired lockdowns in Europe prompted the European Central Bank to hint at more monetary easing. The ECB kept interest rates steady on Thursday, but acknowledged that the fallout from the second wave of coronavirus infections had damaged the economic outlook. A further cut in interest rates seems in doubt, however, with Robert Holzmann, a member of the ECB's governing council, telling Bloomberg that there would be "little effectiveness" from lower interest rates. Nordea is looking for an expansion of the ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program of 500 billion euros and the announcement of more Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations. However, “given the recent developments in terms of weak inflation and more economic restrictions due to Covid-19, risks are tilted towards an even bigger easing package,” von Gerich added. Attention will turn to the release of the euro zone’s third-quarter GDP release, with a rebound expected from the second quarter’s 11.8% decline. The U.S. equivalent rebounded at a 33.1% annualised rate last quarter, data showed on Thursday, and earlier Friday France's GDP release showed a rise of 18.2%. A great deal of uncertainty remains ahead of next week’s U.S. presidential election and as the number of Covid-19 cases grows rapidly globally.
  • The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia, and the euro hovered near a four-week low against the dollar over hints from the European Central Bank (ECB) that it could roll out further monetary easing by the end of the year. The U.K. and the European Union (EU) continue to work towards reaching a post-Brexit trade agreement by the end of the year. The ECB announced its monetary policy on Thursday, keeping interest rates steady but committing to craft a response to the second wave of COVID-19 cases in the region by its December meeting and conforming to investor expectations. An advance estimate of U.S. third-quarter GDP released on Thursday showed a 33.1% rise quarter-on-quarter, the fastest pace since records began in 1947. Separate data showed that 751,000 Americans filed for unemployment claims in the week ended Oct. 24, against the 791,000 claims from the previous week. Although the dollar was on track to post its second monthly gains, uncertainty over the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential elections and worries over the mounting number of COVID-19 cases capped gains. The number of global cases rose by 479,000, according to the World Health Organization, and France and Germany begin government-mandated lockdowns on Friday and Monday respectively. The U.S. also reported rising cases in 41 of the country’s 50 states. Investors now await data due to be released later in the day, including the EU’s third quarter GDP and October inflation, while across the Atlantic, the U.S. is due to release September data on personal consumption and expenditures, as well as the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
  • Global oil prices fell more than 1% on Friday, extending losses and on track for a second monthly fall, on growing concerns that the rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States could hurt fuel consumption. Prices had swung between parity and a more than 2% decline during Friday's session as the "market is anxious" over renewed lockdowns in Europe and U.S. elections next week, a Singapore-based oil trader said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, are expected to raise their output by 2 million bpd in January as part of their production agreement. However, top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia are in favour of maintaining the group's output reduction of about 7.7 million bpd currently into next year amid lockdowns in Europe while Libya has resumed production. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1 to set policy. Global coronavirus cases rose by a single-day record of half a million on Wednesday prompting governments across Europe to impose mobility restrictions again to curb the spread. While that has reduced mobility and fuel consumption within Europe, demand in the United States is holding up for now, RBC Capital's Mike Tran said in a note. Oil was up on Friday morning in Asia after further sustained falls overnight. Prices hit a four-month low with COVID-19 surges threatening demand. Slowing demand combined with oversupply is pulling prices down. Both Brent and WTI futures remained below the $40 benchmark with further falls expected, though Asian demand pulled up the general slide. Oil is now at its lowest point since May, and with the COVID-19 pandemic resurgent across Europe and the U.S., demand is forecast to remain weak for the foreseeable future. In Europe, Germany and France are preparing for major public restrictions, with France going into lockdown on Friday, and Germany following it on Monday. COVID-19 cases are rapidly rising across Europe, and any economic recovery is looking increasingly unlikely for some time to come. Issues of oversupply are also dogging the markets, with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) mulling over a continuation of the supply cuts currently in place. The cartel had been considering a relaxation of the restrictions, beginning in January. Further oversupply worries are being caused by Libya’s return to the markets, with the country’s current production at 680,000 barrels per day (bpd) and expected to hit 1 million bpd in a few weeks. This comes after an 8-month embargo on the country’s exports.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th October 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,875-1,882 1,890 1,900-1,916
Silver-XAG 24.00-25.00 25.65 26.05-26.80
Crude Oil 36.50-37.70 38.00 38.90-39.70
EURO/USD 1.1710-1.1790 1.1860 1.1900-1.1950
GBP/USD 1.2940-1.3020 1.3100 1.3190-1.3250
USD/JPY 104.90-105.40 105.90 106.90-107.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th October 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,868- 1,860 1,854 1,847
Silver-XAG 23.30-22.90 22.20 21.50-21.00
Crude Oil 35.70-35.05 34.75 34.10-32.70
EURO/USD 1.1635-1.1570 1.1500 1.1420
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2820 1.2750 1.2705-1.2650
USD/JPY 104.10-103.90 103.10 102.50-102.00

Intra-Day Strategy (30th October 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1884.90/oz and low of US$1859.82/oz. Gold down 0.361% at US$1867.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,868- 1,860
S2     1,854
S3     1,847
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,875-1,882
R2     1,890
R3     1,900-1,916

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.912

Buy
20-DMA   1898.99 Buy
50-DMA  

1914.76

Buy
100-DMA   1888.66 Buy
200-DMA   1769.33 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.45 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$23.57/oz and low of US$22.57/oz settled up by 0.556% at US$23.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 23.10-21.05 targeting 24.50-25.10 and 26.00-26.50, stop breakage below 21.50. Sell below 24.50-28.00 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.00-23.30-22.90 and 22.20-21.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.30-22.90
S2     22.20
S3     21.50-21.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.00-25.00
R2     25.65
R3     26.05-26.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.681 Buy
20-DMA   24.21 Buy
50-DMA   25.29 Buy
100-DMA   23.25 Buy
200-DMA   19.59 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.914 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US37.87/bbl, intraday low of US$35.05/bbl and settled down by 3.54% to close at US$36.15/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 35.70-32.70 with risk daily closing below 32.70 and targeting 36.50-37.70-38.00 and 38.90- 39.70-40.50 Sell in between 36.50-39.70 with stop loss at 40.00; targeting 35.70-35.00 and 34.75-34.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     35.70-35.05
S2     34.75
S3     34.10-32.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     36.50-37.70
R2     38.00
R3     38.90-39.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.498 Sell
20-DMA   39.70 Sell
50-DMA   40.00 Sell
100-DMA   40.35 Buy
200-DMA   37.61 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   15.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.776 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1694/EUR, high of US$1.1758/EUR and settled the day down by 0.606% to close at US$1.1673/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1635-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1710-1.1790-1.1860 and 1.1900-1.1955. Sell below 1.1710-1.1950 targeting 1.1635-1.1570 and 1.1500-1.1460 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1635-1.1570
S2     1.1500
S3     1.1420

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1710-1.1790
R2     1.1860
R3     1.1900-1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.804 Buy
20-DMA   1.1769 Buy
50-DMA   1.1784 Buy
100-DMA   1.1653 Buy
200-DMA   1.1313 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2879/GBP, high of US$1.3024/GBP and settled the day down by 0;.451% to close at US$1.2924/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2940-1.3490 with targets at 1.2900-1.2820-1.2750 and 1.2705-1.2650 stop-loss should be 1.3270. Buy above 1.2900-1.2600 with targets 1.30-1.3190 1.3250 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2900-1.2820
S2     1.2750
S3     1.2705-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2940-1.3020
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3190-1.3250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.539

Buy
20-DMA   1.2979 Sell
50-DMA   1.2994 Buy
100-DMA   1.2873 Buy
200-DMA   1.2704 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY104.01/USD and made an intraday high of JPY104.72/USD and settled the day up by 0.286% at JPY104.60/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.00-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.50-103.90 and 103.50-103.10. Long positions above 104.10-102.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     104.10-103.90
S2     103.10
S3     102.50-102.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     104.90-105.40
R2     105.90
R3     106.90-107.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.726 Buy
20-DMA   105.25 Sell
50-DMA   105.51 Sell
100-DMA   106.09 Sell
200-DMA   107.15 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   18.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

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