Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar steadied on Monday as investors prepared for U.S. presidential elections on Tuesday, while a surge in global coronavirus cases continued to weigh on sentiment. The greenback held onto gains after posting its largest weekly percentage rise since late September in the previous trading session. The pound inched lower on cornavirus worries, after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced over the weekend a one-month lockdown across England. Investors are sticking to the U.S. currency, which is often considered to be safe, as Tuesday's presidential election keeps financial markets on edge. Democratic challenger Joe Biden leads in national opinion polls though the race is seen as close in enough battleground states that President Donald Trump could achieve the 270 votes needed to win in the state-by-state Electoral College that determines the overall victor. Meanwhile, the novel coronavirus continues to ravage already-battered economies. England's lockdown aimed to last until Dec. 2 could be extended as Britain struggles to contain a second wave of COVID-19, a senior cabinet member said on Sunday. The United Kingdom is grappling with more than 20,000 new coronavirus cases a day. EU and British Brexit negotiators will continue talks in Brussels on Monday until around mid-week, people on both sides told Reuters. In Europe, new COVID-19 cases have doubled in five weeks, a Reuters tally showed, with total infections surpassing 10 million. Indeed, the United States posted nearly 87,000 cases on Saturday and record hospitalizations in Midwestern state. Besides the U.S. presidential election, this week is filled with economic data, including PMI data from the United States, euro zone and elsewhere, as well as U.S. non-farm payrolls and Chinese trade. Three central banks are also due to announce policy decisions this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, while the Bank of England and U.S. Federal Reserve deliver their decisions on Thursday.
• The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, with the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential elections and rising number of COVID-19 cases globally continuing to weigh on investor sentiment. The dollar held onto gains from the previous week, seeing its largest weekly percentage rise since late September during the previous session as investors cautiously turned to the safe-haven asset. Although the polls predict a win for Democrat candidate Joe Biden over incumbent president Donald Trump, the race remains tight and the possibility of a contested election is keeping investors from making firm predictions on the election’s outcome. Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rising to 53.6 in October, ahead of the expected growth of 53. Data released on Saturday also showed growth in the in October's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs of 51.4 and 56.2 respectively, although the manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than September’s reading of 51.5. The Caixin services PMI is due later in the week. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday announced a second lockdown in England beginning later in the week and ending on Dec. 2 as the number of daily COVID-19 cases surpassed 20,000. However, Cabinet minister Michael Gove warned on Sunday that an extension of the lockdown is likely. The news overshadowed the extension of Brexit trade deal talks with the European Union until later in the week. Although the number of COVID-19 cases continue to rise in Europe and U.S., some investors suggested that the market is developing an immunity to news of rising cases numbers and new lockdowns. It is also big week for central banks, with the Reserve Bank of Australia handing down its monetary policy on Tuesday and the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve unveiling their respective polices on Thursday.
• Oil prices fell more than 3% on Monday on worries a swathe of coronavirus lockdowns across Europe will weaken fuel demand, while traders braced for turbulence during the U.S. presidential election week. Countries across Europe have reimposed lockdown measures aimed at slowing COVID-19 infection rates which have accelerated in the continent in the past month. Oil pared some losses after Japan's export orders grew for the first time in two years, China's factory activity accelerated at the fastest pace in nearly a decade in October. More manufacturing data is expected from the eurozone and the United States. Still, concerns about weakening demand and rising supplies from OPEC and the United States caused oil prices to fall for a second straight month in October, with WTI falling 11% and Brent 8.5%. Rising supplies from Libya and Iraq, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) offset production cuts by other members and caused the group's output to rise for a fourth month in October, a Reuters survey showed. OPEC and their allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, are cutting output by about 7.7 million barrels per day in a pact aimed at supporting prices. OPEC+ is scheduled to hold a policy meeting over Nov. 30 and Dec. 1. In the United States, the total oil and natural gas rig count rose in October for a third straight month, according to Baker Hughes data. A tighter race in the lead-up to the U.S. Election Day and potential electoral uncertainty raised investors' caution in global markets.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1889.72/oz and low of US$1864.22/oz. Gold up 0.690% at US$1878.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1884-1847 with risk below 1854, targeting 1887-1900 and 1916-1934-1944. Sell below 1887-1934 keeping stop loss closing above 1940, targeting 1874-1868-1860 and 1854-1847.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$23.80/oz and low of US$23.16/oz settled up by 0.556% at US$23.61/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 23.10-21.05 targeting 24.50-25.10 and 26.00-26.50, stop breakage below 21.50. Sell below 24.50-28.00 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 24.00-23.30-22.90 and 22.20-21.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US6.72/bbl, intraday low of US$35.325/bbl and settled down by 3.54% to close at US$35.80/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 34.10-30.70 with risk daily closing below 30.70 and targeting 34.75-36.50-37.70 and 38.00-38.90-39.70. Sell in between 35.05-39.70 with stop loss at 40.00; targeting 34.10-33.80-32.70 and 31.90-30.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1639/EUR, high of US$1.1703/EUR and settled the day down by 0.242% to close at US$1.1645/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1635-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1710-1.1790-1.1860 and 1.1900-1.1955. Sell below 1.1710-1.1950 targeting 1.1635-1.1570 and 1.1500-1.1460 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1950.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2898/GBP, high of US$1.2987/GBP and settled the day up by 0.118% to close at US$1.2939/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2940-1.3490 with targets at 1.2900-1.2820-1.2750 and 1.2705-1.2650 stop-loss should be 1.3270. Buy above 1.2900-1.2600 with targets 1.30-1.3190 1.3250 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2650.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY104.11/USD and made an intraday high of JPY104.73/USD and settled the day up by 0.031% at JPY104.62/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.00-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.50-103.90 and 103.50-103.10. Long positions above 104.10-102.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.