AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar hit a 10-week low on Monday as investors heralded Joe Biden's election as U.S. president by buying trade-exposed currencies on expectations that a calmer White House could boost world commerce and that monetary policy will remain easy. Biden crossed the threshold of the 270 Electoral College votes required for victory on Saturday by winning the battleground state of Pennsylvania. Republicans appear to have retained control of the Senate, though the final makeup may not be clear until runoff votes in Georgia in January. The prospect of more gridlock also means that expectations for a massive U.S. fiscal stimulus package have been lowered, which has sent bond yields down in anticipation of less borrowing and more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve. The buoyant mood sent equities surging and the safe-haven Japanese yen slipped a fraction to 103.42 per dollar - just below an eight-month high made on Friday when the dip in U.S. yields deterred investment flows from Japan. The yuan, particularly sensitive to the election outcome because of a perception that Biden will take a softer or more predictable line on China, was also boosted by strong Chinese trade data over the weekend to stand at 6.5758 per dollar. Selling was held in check by underlying virus worries and because Donald Trump, the first incumbent to lose a re-election bid in 28 years, has made no sign of conceding while fighting legal battles to overturn the result. Traders are also wary of fresh lockdowns as coronavirus cases surge, with the global tally of infections topping 50 million on Sunday as cases in the United States surpassed 10 million. He cited the possibility of fresh lockdowns in the United States or hoped-for European stimulus ultimately disappointing as major risks to the dollar's decline. Europe's fiscal and monetary responses to a second wave of coronavirus infections, which have already prompted new restrictions on everyday life, will be in focus when European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks on Thursday. Later on Monday are appearances from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and chief economist Andy Haldane at 1035 GMT and 1400 GMT, where talk of negative rates is in focus. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan makes a speech at 2200 GMT. On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets, with expectations it will hold rates but lay the framework for going negative next year. In emerging markets, the beaten-down Turkish lira rose more than 2% in the wake of the ouster of the central bank chief and the resignation of Turkey's finance minister over the weekend. Investors retreated from the greenback over the expectation that a Biden administration would mean a steadier U.S. foreign policy and the continuation of a soft monetary policy, as announced by the Federal Reserve during the previous week. Biden won the state of Pennsylvania on Sunday, thereby obtaining the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election against incumbent president Donald Trump. However, Trump is refusing to concede and continuing legal action to contest the result. Adding to the uncertainty is which party holds the Senate majority, with four races yet to declare winners, some investors warned that it was too early to say whether market volatility has finally calmed down. However, some investors are betting on the Republicans retaining their majority in the Senate, boosting stocks but putting downward pressure on the greenback. Should their bets be correct, the divided Congress would create more work for the Federal Reserve as the Democrat agenda on taxes or regulations is thwarted. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and chief economist Andy Haldane are due to speak later in the day, with the focus squarely on negative rates. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is also due to speak later in the day.
  • Oil rose toward $38 a barrel and gold climbed for a third day as President-elect Joe Biden prepared to transition into the White House even as Donald Trump rejected the outcome of the U.S. election. While Biden declared victory and prepared to navigate America’s pandemic-hit economy out of the crisis, the unresolved status of Senate control may dampen prospects for a major stimulus package before January. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign team mounted lawsuits in key states after alleging election fraud. Biden inherits a divided country and an economy ravaged by the coronavirus as infections race toward 10 million. Already, a second wave of Covid-19 has led to lockdowns across. Europe, fueling concerns over a slowdown in a global oil-demand recovery amid rising crude supplies from Libya. Officials from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers offered support for a review and delay in the group’s plans to roll-back output curbs, lifting oil prices last week. Investors are assessing the implications of Biden’s leadership on U.S. foreign policy and its stance toward China and key oil producers Iran and Venezuela. A potential U-turn from Trump’s combative “America First” approach could bring improved relations with allies and China. Biden has also pledged a range of first-day actions once inaugurated, including rejoining the Paris climate accord. In the physical crude market, traders were keeping close tabs on Libyan production after state-run National Oil Corp. reported Saturday that output now exceeds the million-barrel-a-day level -- the most since December. Incremental production from the African nation comes as Brent’s 3-month timespread remains firmly in contango, where prompt prices are cheaper than later-dated ones, a market structure that signals oversupply. In Asia, foreign oil purchases by China slumped to a six-month low last month amid lower seasonal demand, even as overall imports are seen rising 10% this year as its economy continues to show strong signs of recovery. The region remains a bulwark against faltering oil demand worldwide as the virus spreads unabated across the U.S. and Europe, spurring more stay-home measures.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th November 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,960-1,967 1,974 1,992-2,010
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.80 27.60 28.00-28.50
Crude Oil 38.90-39.40 40.35 41.00-41.90
EURO/USD 1.1900 1.1950 1.1970-1.2000
GBP/USD 1.3190 1.3250 1.3290-1.3340
USD/JPY 103.90-104.50 105.00 105.40-105.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th November 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,953-1,940 1,933 1,916-1,900
Silver-XAG 25.65-24.95 24.40 23.90-23.30
Crude Oil 37.90-37.00 35.70-34.75 35.70-34.75
EURO/USD 1.1860-1.1790 1.1750 1.1710-1.1635
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3100 1.3020 1.2950-1.2820
USD/JPY 103.10-102.50 102.00 101.50-101.10

Intra-Day Strategy (9th November 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1960.25/oz and low of US$1935.48/oz. Gold up 0.180% at US$1951.11/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1953-1900 with risk below 1900, targeting 1959-1966 and 1974-1992-2010. Sell below 1954-2010 keeping stop loss closing above 2010, targeting 1953-1940-1933 and 1913-1900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,953-1,940
S2     1,933
S3     1,916-1,900
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,960-1,967
R2     1,974
R3     1,992-2,010

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

62.912

Buy
20-DMA   1906.45 Buy
50-DMA  

1912.83

Buy
100-DMA   1900.40 Buy
200-DMA   1779.87 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   7.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$25.83/oz and low of US$24.87/oz settled up by 1.049% at US$25.60/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 25.65-23.50 targeting 26.00-26.40-26.80 and 27.60-28.00, stop breakage below 23.50. Sell below 26.05-28.50 with stop loss above 28.50; targeting 25.65-24.90-24.00 and 23.30-22.90-22.20.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.65-24.95
S2     24.40
S3     23.90-23.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.80
R2     27.60
R3     28.00-28.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.681 Buy
20-DMA   24.32 Buy
50-DMA   24.97 Buy
100-DMA   23.84 Buy
200-DMA   20.04 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.032 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US38.77/bbl, intraday low of US$37.26/bbl and settled down by 2.911% to close at US$37.60/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 37.90-34.10 with risk daily closing below 34.10 and targeting 38.90-39.40-40.35 and 41.00-41.90. Sell in between 38.50-41.90 with stop loss at 41.90; targeting 37.90-37.00-36.50 and 35.70-34.75-33.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     37.90-37.00
S2     35.70-34.75
S3     35.70-34.75

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     38.90-39.40
R2     40.35
R3     41.00-41.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.979 Sell
20-DMA   39.43 Sell
50-DMA   39.69 Sell
100-DMA   40.35 Buy
200-DMA   37.37 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   76.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.053 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1794/EUR, high of US$1.1890/EUR and settled the day up by 0.440% to close at US$1.1875/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1860-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1900-1.1950. Sell below 1.1900-1.2010 targeting 1.1860-1.1790-1.1710 and 1.1635 1.1570 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1860-1.1790
S2     1.1750
S3     1.1710-1.1635

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1900
R2     1.1950
R3     1.1970-1.2000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1767 Buy
50-DMA   1.1775 Buy
100-DMA   1.1685 Buy
200-DMA   1.1335 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3091/GBP, high of US$1.3176/GBP and settled the day down by 0.117% to close at US$1.3158/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3190-1.3490 with targets at 1.3150-1.3100-1.3020 and 1.2940-1.2820-1.2750 stop-loss should be 1.3490. Buy above 1.3150-1.2600 with targets 1.3190 1.3250 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3150-1.3100
S2     1.3020
S3     1.2950-1.2820

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3190
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3290-1.3340

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.539

Buy
20-DMA   1.3005 Sell
50-DMA   1.2979 Buy
100-DMA   1.2900 Buy
200-DMA   1.2703 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY103.17/USD and made an intraday high of JPY103.75/USD and settled the day down by % at JPY103.34/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 103.90-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 103.10-102.50-102.00 and 101.50-101.10. Long positions above 103.10-101.00 with targets of 103.90-104.00-106.90 and 107.50-107.90-108.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     103.10-102.50
S2     102.00
S3     101.50-101.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     103.90-104.50
R2     105.00
R3     105.40-105.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.726 Buy
20-DMA   105.25 Sell
50-DMA   105.51 Sell
100-DMA   106.09 Sell
200-DMA   107.15 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   18.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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