AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia, with investors adjusting earlier bullish expectations for a COVID-19 vaccine. This adjustment tempered the risk assets rally triggered by the vaccine expectations while maintaining enough confidence to support the greenback against other safe-haven assets. Pfizer Inc's announcement of positive results for the vaccine candidate that it is co-developing with BioNTech earlier in the week saw the dollar fall more than 10% from a March peak to a 10-week low. A selloff of safe-haven assets since then boosted the dollar’s nearly-1% rally to just below the one-week high hit during the previous session. However, a sharp decline in U.S. bond yields, as well as the Federal Reserve’s policy of an extended period of low rates and hopes for a global economic recovery from COVID-19 that would boost other currencies could contribute to further decline in the dollar. This means that new drivers might now need to be sought to prevent the dollar falling any lower, OCBC strategist Terence Wu said in a note. The yen was around 2% below the eight-month high it saw against the dollar during the previous week, after U.S. president-elect Joe Biden took the lead in the presidential election, spurring a dollar sell-off. Tensions between the U.S. and China rose over the National People’s Congress Standing Committee Wednesday resolution disqualifying any lawmakers in Hong Kong's Legislative Council deemed insufficiently patriotic without going through the city’s courts. The immediate removal of four opposition legislators triggered the resignation of the fifteen remaining opposition legislators later in the day. In the U.S. there are mounting concerns about the transfer of power from current President Donald Trump to incoming President-elect Joe Biden. At present, the Trump administration is refusing to concede defeat, and has yet to allow the Biden team access to information held by federal departments. ECB President Christine Lagarde announced the bank’s plans to focus on emergency bond purchases and cheap loans for banks as a major plank in its policies for assisting eurozone economies. Lagarde will join other central bankers including Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the online “Central Banks in a Shifting World” forum later in the day. Central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of 20 are also due to convene on Friday for an extraordinary meeting to discuss measures to help nations struggling to repay their debts.
  • The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia, with investors adjusting earlier bullish expectations for a COVID-19 vaccine. This adjustment tempered the risk assets rally triggered by the vaccine expectations while maintaining enough confidence to support the greenback against other safe-haven assets. However, a sharp decline in U.S. bond yields, as well as the Federal Reserve’s policy of an extended period of low rates and hopes for a global economic recovery from COVID-19 that would boost other currencies could contribute to further decline in the dollar. This means that new drivers might now need to be sought to prevent the dollar falling any lower, OCBC strategist Terence Wu said in a note. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Wednesday in thin volumes, as traders continued to digest the implications of Pfizer’s potential Covid-19 vaccine. Some focus Wednesday may be on the European Central Bank's annual two-day forum, an occasion that has previously been used to signal changes in monetary policy. That is unlikely this year as the ECB has already signaled new monetary policy measures for December, but traders will be listening to President Christine Lagarde’s views about the European economic outlook and stimulus prospects. This view was helped by the news that the House of Lords has rejected the government’s controversial Internal Markets bill, which would breach the Withdrawal Agreement that is governing the post-Brexit transition and undermine the basis for a free trade agreement after the transition. The central bank reiterated it is prepared to use additional tools such as negative rates if required, but the country’s successful containment of Covid-19 has buoyed confidence that this measure won’t be needed.
  • Oil was up on Thursday morning in Asia as investors look toward continued OPEC+ supply cuts. Oil continues upwards on a combination of likely supply cuts and optimism over vaccines. Prices have risen more than 12% over the week to date, with prices well over $40 per barrel, even though the COVID-19 pandemic looks likely to rein back any growth in demand in the near future. Markets are boosted by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) looking likely to maintain current supply cuts into 2021, and possibly even deepening them, Algeria’s energy minister Abdelmadjid Attar said on Wednesday. Algeria is the current chair of OPEC. OPEC had been looking at reducing its present 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) production cuts by 2 million bpd. Ever-increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases in Europe, the U.S. and Latin America continues to put fuel demand under pressure, with OPEC acknowledging that demand will rebound more slowly in 2021 than previously estimated. OPEC+ will convene for a high-level ministerial meeting on Nov. 17, followed by further meetings on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1. Investors also await the U.S. Energy Information Administration's crude oil supply data, due later in the day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th November 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,874-1,882 1,900 1,916-1,933
Silver-XAG 24.40-24.95 25.65 26.05-26.80
Crude Oil 41.90-42.50 43.00 43.90-44.50
EURO/USD 1.1790-1.1860 1.1900 1.1950-1.1970
GBP/USD 1.3250-1.3290 1.3340 1.3390-1.3440
USD/JPY 105.40-105.90 106.40 106.95-107.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th November 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,860-1,848 1,840 1,834-1,826
Silver-XAG 23.90-23.20 22.60 22.00-21.60
Crude Oil 41.50-41.00 40.35 39.40-38.90
EURO/USD 1.1750 1.1700-1.1635 1.1590
GBP/USD 1.3185 1.3150 1.3100-1.3020
USD/JPY 105.00-104.50 103.90 103.10-102.50

Intra-Day Strategy (12th November 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1884.37/oz and low of US$1856.20/oz. Gold down 0.750% at US$1864.50/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1860-1826 with risk below 1826, targeting 1874-1882-1900 and 1909-1916-1933. Sell below 1874-1933 keeping stop loss closing above 1933, targeting 1860-1848-1848 and 1834-1826.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,860-1,848
S2     1,840
S3     1,834-1,826
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,874-1,882
R2     1,900
R3     1,916-1,933

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.912

Buy
20-DMA   1901.45 Buy
50-DMA  

1909.83

Buy
100-DMA   1900.40 Buy
200-DMA   1780.87 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$24.41/oz and low of US$23.77/oz settled up by 0.397% at US$24.24/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 23.90-21.60 targeting 24.40-24.95-26.00 and 26.40-26.80 and 27.60-28.00, stop breakage below 23.50. Sell below 24.95-26.80 with stop loss above 26.80; targeting 24.00-23.20-22.60 and 22.00-21.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.90-23.20
S2     22.60
S3     22.00-21.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.40-24.95
R2     25.65
R3     26.05-26.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.681 Buy
20-DMA   24.30 Buy
50-DMA   24.76 Buy
100-DMA   24.04 Buy
200-DMA   20.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0373 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US43.25/bbl, intraday low of US$41.52/bbl and settled down by 0.993% to close at US$41.55/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 41.50-39.00 with risk daily closing below 39.10 and targeting 41.90-42.50-43.00 and 43.90-44.50-45.00. Sell in between 41.90-45.00 with stop loss at 45.00; targeting 41.50-41.00-40.35 and 39.40-38.90-37.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     41.50-41.00
S2     40.35
S3     39.40-38.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     41.90-42.50
R2     43.00
R3     43.90-44.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.979 Sell
20-DMA   39.07 Sell
50-DMA   39.43 Sell
100-DMA   40.39 Buy
200-DMA   37.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.253 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1744/EUR, high of US$1.1832/EUR and settled the day down by 0.317% to close at US$1.1775/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1750-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1790-1.1860-1.1900 and 1.1950-1.1970. Sell below 1.1790-1.2010 targeting 1.1750-1.1710 and 1.1635 1.1570 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750
S2     1.1700-1.1635
S3     1.1590

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1790-1.1860
R2     1.1900
R3     1.1950-1.1970

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1771 Buy
50-DMA   1.1771 Buy
100-DMA   1.1689 Buy
200-DMA   1.1339 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3190/GBP, high of US$1.3312/GBP and settled the day up by 0.369% to close at US$1.3220/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3250-1.3490 with targets at 1.3250-1.3150-1.3100 and 1.3020-1.2940-1.2820 stop-loss should be 1.3490. Buy above 1.3250-1.2600 with targets 1.3250 1.3250 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3185
S2     1.3150
S3     1.3100-1.3020

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3250-1.3290
R2     1.3340
R3     1.3390-1.3440

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.539

Buy
20-DMA   1.3005 Sell
50-DMA   1.2979 Buy
100-DMA   1.2900 Buy
200-DMA   1.2703 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY104.99/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.67/USD and settled the day down by 0.176% at JPY105.41/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.40-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 105.00-104.50-103.10 and 102.50-102.00-101.50. Long positions above 103.10-101.00 with targets of 103.90-104.00-106.90 and 107.50-107.90-108.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.00-104.50
S2     103.90
S3     103.10-102.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     105.40-105.90
R2     106.40
R3     106.95-107.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.726 Buy
20-DMA   105.25 Sell
50-DMA   105.51 Sell
100-DMA   106.09 Sell
200-DMA   107.15 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   18.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING