AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, headed towards its best week against the yen since March. Although hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine continued to whet investors’ risk appetite, a worsening of the second wave of COVID-19 cases in Europe and the U.S. meant that riskier currencies made little headway. As the week draws to an end, investors took stock of a slew of positive news on the vaccine front, with Pfizer Inc and BioNTech announcing positive results for their candidate BNT-162b2 on Monday, Russia saying on Wednesday that its Sputnik V vaccine candidate showed 92% efficacy, and Moderna Inc saying on the same day that the accumulation of data for a first analysis of its vaccine mRNA-1273 is complete, with an announcement on the vaccine's efficacy expected by the end of the month. However, logistical issues in mass-producing and transporting these vaccines, the unceasing uptick in the number of COVID-19 cases in Europe and the U.S. and fears that more countries will re-impose lockdowns to curb the spread of the virus. These fears would outweigh any positive developments in eurozone industrial production numbers, due later in the day. The pound was sitting near a one-week low after a slew of data, including GDP data, released on Thursday missed forecasts. The U.K.’s third quarter GDP contracted 9.6% year-on-year against the forecast 9.4% contraction in forecasts prepared by Investing.com. It grew 15.5% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% month-on-month, against the forecast 15.8% and 1.5% respectively. Central bank heads sounded a warning note that the pandemic is far from over, although the vaccine developments show that an end is in sight, during Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB)’s “Central Banks in a Shifting World” forum.
  • The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, with traders shying away from riskier currencies as they readjusted their expectations surrounding a potential Covid-19 vaccine. Pfizer’s announcement of positive results for the vaccine candidate that it is co-developing with BioNTech earlier in the week saw the dollar fall to a 10-week low that was more than 10% off its March peak. However, the enthusiasm has since waned and the dollar has rebounded by almost 1%, as traders readjusted their positions. EUR/USD dropped 0.1% to 1.1770, continuing to fall after dropping around 0.4% late Wednesday after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that Europe could still see an acceleration of virus transmission and tighter restrictions, hinting at further easing in the near future. Her comments were taken as suggesting that the ECB won't cut its deposit rate any further. Elsewhere, GBP/USD traded 0.3% lower at $1.3186, after the release of the latest U.K. growth data. This showed Britain's economy grew by a slower than expected 1.1% in September from August, even before the latest restrictions on businesses. In the July-September period, gross domestic product grew by a record 15.5% compared with the previous three months, a strong rebound but still not enough to make up for the 19.8% crash in the second quarter when the country was in the grip of its first coronavirus lockdown President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday committed to contain inflation while putting Turkey on a sustainable growth path, and comes after he removed the central bank chief and his son-in-law as economy czar in recent days.
  • Oil was down on Friday morning in Asia as the COVID-19 pandemic reasserted its influence against this week’s buoyant prices. Fears over demand have capped a week of gains for oil as a second wave of COVID-19 cases builds across the U.S. and Europe, threatening to reduce economic activity even further. In the U.S., coronavirus cases have reached an all-time high of 14,231 a day according to Johns Hopkins University data, with higher numbers expected to follow. The good news on the vaccine front from Pfizer Inc and BioNTech at the start of the week is now factored into prices, with the initial excitement turning to realization that any effect will only be seen well into 2021. Responding to the global conditions, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has said that the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) is looking into maintaining its current supply cuts well into 2021, given agreement between its members. Crude oil supply data released by the U.S. EIA on Thursday showed a surprise 4.278-million-barrel build during the week ending Nov. 6, against the forecast draw of 913,000 barrels. Crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday showed a draw of 5.147 million barrels. Oil prices fell on Friday, pressured by fears about a slow recovery in the global economy and fuel demand due to an accelerating rise in COVID-19 infections, but remained on track for a second straight weekly gain, helped by vaccine hopes. For the week, both were headed for a surge of about 8%. U.S. government data also added pressure, as crude inventories rose by 4.3 mn barrels last week, compared with an expected fall of 913K barrels New corona virus infections in the United States and elsewhere are at record levels and tightening economic restrictions to contain the spread have dampened the prospect of a near-term end to the global health crisis. But the IEA said on Thursday that global oil demand is unlikely to get a significant boost from the roll-out of vaccines against COVID-19 until well into 2021. Analysts say tougher restrictions on mobility to deal with sky-rocketing corona virus cases mean the OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, may hesitate to implement a planned loosening of output curbs agreed in a deal earlier this year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th November 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,882 1,900 1,916-1,933
Silver-XAG 24.40-24.95 25.65 26.05-26.80
Crude Oil 41.00-41.50 41.90 42.50-43.00
EURO/USD 1.1860 1.1900 1.1950-1.1970
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3185 1.3250 1.3290-1.3340
USD/JPY 105.40-105.90 106.40 106.95-107.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th November 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,874-1,860 1,848 1.840-1,834
Silver-XAG 23.90-23.20 22.60 22.00-21.60
Crude Oil 40.35-39.40 38.90 38.00-37.30
EURO/USD 1790-1.1750 1.1700 1.1635-1.1590
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3020 1.2965 1.2910-1.2880
USD/JPY 105.00-104.50 103.90 103.10-102.50

Intra-Day Strategy (13th November 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1883.67/oz and low of US$1862.59/oz. Gold up 0.214% at US$1876.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1874-1826 with risk below 1826, targeting 1882-1900 and 1909-1916-1933. Sell below 1882-1933 keeping stop loss closing above 1933, targeting 1874-1860-1848 and 1834-1826.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,874-1,860
S2     1,848
S3     1.840-1,834
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,882
R2     1,900
R3     1,916-1,933

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.052

Buy
20-DMA   1896.50 Buy
50-DMA  

1905.83

Buy
100-DMA   1903.40 Buy
200-DMA   1785.87 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$24.39/oz and low of US$24.02/oz settled down by 0.045% at US$24.25/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 23.90-21.60 targeting 24.40-24.95-26.00 and 26.40-26.80 and 27.60-28.00, stop breakage below 23.50. Sell below 24.95-26.80 with stop loss above 26.80; targeting 24.00-23.20-22.60 and 22.00-21.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.90-23.20
S2     22.60
S3     22.00-21.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.40-24.95
R2     25.65
R3     26.05-26.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.649.68181 Buy
20-DMA   24.30 Buy
50-DMA   24.76 Buy
100-DMA   24.04 Buy
200-DMA   20.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0373 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US42.38/bbl, intraday low of US$41.05/bbl and settled down by 1.460% to close at US$41.08/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 40.50-39.00 with risk daily closing below 39.10 and targeting 41.00-41.90-42.50 and 43.00-43.90-44.50. Sell in between 41.00-43.00 with stop loss at 43.00; targeting 40.35-39.40 and 38.90-37.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     40.35-39.40
S2     38.90
S3     38.00-37.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     41.00-41.50
R2     41.90
R3     42.50-43.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.979 Sell
20-DMA   39.07 Sell
50-DMA   39.43 Sell
100-DMA   40.39 Buy
200-DMA   37.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.253 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1757/EUR, high of US$1.1822/EUR and settled the day up by 0.231% to close at US$1.1803/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1790-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1860-1.1900 and 1.1950-1.1970. Sell below 1.1860-1.2010 targeting 1.1790-1.1750-1.1710 and 1.1635 1.1570 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1790-1.1750
S2     1.1700
S3     1.1635-1.1590

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1860
R2     1.1900
R3     1.1950-1.1970

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1771 Buy
50-DMA   1.1771 Buy
100-DMA   1.1689 Buy
200-DMA   1.1339 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3105/GBP, high of US$1.3227/GBP and settled the day down by 0.810% to close at US$1.3113/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3150-1.3340 with targets at 1.3100-1.3020-1.2965 and 1.2910-1.2880-1.2820 stop-loss should be 1.3390. Buy above 1.3100-1.2880 with targets 1.3150-1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3020
S2     1.2965
S3     1.2910-1.2880

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3150-1.3185
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3290-1.3340

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.539

Buy
20-DMA   1.3005 Sell
50-DMA   1.2979 Buy
100-DMA   1.2900 Buy
200-DMA   1.2703 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY105.06/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.47/USD and settled the day down by % at JPY105.12/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.40-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 105.00-104.50-103.10 and 102.50-102.00-101.50. Long positions above 103.10-101.00 with targets of 103.90-104.00-106.90 and 107.50-107.90-108.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.00-104.50
S2     103.90
S3     103.10-102.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     105.40-105.90
R2     106.40
R3     106.95-107.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.726 Buy
20-DMA   105.25 Sell
50-DMA   105.51 Sell
100-DMA   106.09 Sell
200-DMA   107.15 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   18.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

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