Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, despite optimism over the latest positive news on the COVID-19 vaccine front. This is as more U.S. states introduce restrictive measures to curb the virus and as worries about a smooth transfer of presidential power in the U.S. in January mount up. The Pfizer news saw the dollar rise against safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc. However, the logistics of producing and distributing the vaccine, distributing the vaccine, which suggests it is not likely to be available anytime soon, curbed the initial enthusiasm and subdued market reactions. Also dampening the enthusiasm is the continual rise in COVID-19 cases globally. Several U.S. states reported a record number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths, with officials’ response to these figures of more concern to investors. The U.K., Europe and Japan reported an increased number of cases, with over 54.8 million cases globally as of Nov.17, according to Johns Hopkins University. Concerns are also growing about the smooth transition of power from incumbent U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to that of President-elect Joe Biden, with the Trump administration recalcitrant to pass over the control of government, and thus hampering the Biden administration’s ability to handle ability to handle the COVID-19 situation and stimulate economic recovery. Some investors remained pessimistic about the dollar’s short-term prospects. The pound saw gains over reports that the U.K. and the European Union could reach a Brexit divorce agreement by the beginning of the following week. U.S. retail sales and industrial production data is due later in the day, following China’s release of its own retail sales and industrial production data on Monday.
• The dollar steadied against most currencies on Tuesday as a return of coronavirus restrictions in some U.S. states and worries about a smooth transition for President-elect Joe Biden offset optimism about a coronavirus vaccine. The British pound edged higher on media reports the UK could reach a post-Brexit trade agreement with the European Union by early next week. Moderna (O:MRNA) became the second U.S. pharmaceutical company in a week to report positive results from trials of a COVID-19 vaccine, considered necessary to eradicate the pandemic. Last week, encouraging progress in coronavirus vaccine testing helped the dollar rise against the safe-harbour yen and the Swiss franc. However, reaction in the currency market to subsequent developments has been subdued as the United States struggles to contain a second wave of infections, and with vaccine distribution not expected any time soon. There is also some uncertainty about Biden's plans to tackle the coronavirus and stimulate the economy as the Trump administration resists cooperation with Biden's transition team. Investors in the dollar are looking ahead to the release of U.S. retail sales and industrial production later on Tuesday to gauge the health of the economic recovery. However, policymakers' response to a record number of coronavirus cases, hospitalisations, and deaths in several U.S. states is likely to remain of greater concern. New infections are also increasing in Britain, Europe, and Japan, which further clouds the economic outlook.
• Oil was up on Tuesday morning in Asia as multiple vaccine makers delivered positive information on their progress. Moderna Inc has released information about its candidate mRNA-1273, which has both a greater efficacy and better storage conditions than the Pfizer Inc and BioNTech product BNT162b, giving rise to optimism about the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Oil continues its rise on more vaccine news, with investors pinning their hopes on a rise in demand in the coming year. The energy sector has leapt over 23% in the last week on the back of information regarding efficacy and storage data released by major vaccine makers. Adding to the bullish sentiment are the expectations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) will extend their current supply cuts for a minimum of three months. OPEC+ is due to hold a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee later in the day as a prelude to its full meeting, the 180th Meeting of the OPEC Conference on Nov. 30 and the 12th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on Dec. 1The body's Joint Technical Committee met on Monday. Creating even further support for prices is the latest demand news from China. October has seen the country’s highest-ever level of crude throughput, showing a rapid recovery in the Asian powerhouse’s economy. Investors now await crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day. Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday on expectations OPEC and its allies will extend oil production cuts for at least three months, while sentiment was bolstered by news of another promising coronavirus vaccine. OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, is set to hold a ministerial committee meeting on Tuesday that could recommend changes to production quotas when all the ministers meet on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1. The group is leaning towards postponement of a planned January increase in oil output for at least three months to support prices as the COVID-19 pandemic continues its second wave, sources told Reuters on Monday. China's crude oil throughput in October rose to its highest-ever level, underpinning a fast demand recovery in the world's second largest oil consumer.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1898.90/oz and low of US$1864.15/oz. Gold up 0.019% at US$1887.85/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1885-1826 with risk below 1826, targeting 1900 and 1909-1916-1933. Sell below 1882-1933 keeping stop loss closing above 1933, targeting 1874-1860-1848 and 1834-1826.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$25.06/oz and low of US$24.20/oz settled up by 0.198% at US$24.73/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 24.40-21.60 targeting 24.95-26.00 and 26.40-26.80-27.60, stop breakage below 23.50. Sell below 24.95-26.80 with stop loss above 26.80; targeting 24.00-23.20-22.60 and 22.00-21.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US42.30/bbl, intraday low of US$40.36/bbl and settled up by 2.852% to close at US$41.59/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 41.50-39.00 with risk daily closing below 39.10 and targeting 41.90-42.50 and 43.00-43.90-44.50. Sell in between 41.90-44.00 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 41.50-41.00-40.35 and 39.40-38.90-37.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1813/EUR, high of US$1.1822/EUR and settled the day up by 0.231% to close at US$1.1850/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1790-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1860-1.1900 and 1.1950-1.1970. Sell below 1.1860-1.2010 targeting 1.1790-1.1750-1.1710 and 1.1635 1.1570 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3105/GBP, high of US$1.3241/GBP and settled the day down by 0.810% to close at US$1.3187/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3200-1.3340 with targets at 1.3150-1.3100-1.3020-1.2965 and 1.2910-1.2880-1.2820 stop-loss should be 1.3390. Buy above 1.3150-1.2880 with targets 1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY104.35/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.12/USD and settled the day down by 0.129% at JPY104.56/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.00-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.50-103.10 and 102.50-102.00-101.50. Long positions above 103.10-101.00 with targets of 103.90-104.00-106.90 and 107.50-107.90-108.40 with stop below 105.00.