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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged lower in early European trade Tuesday, as the surge in Covid-19 cases in the U.S. prompted more restrictions and as worries about a smooth transfer of presidential power mount. News from Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) of positive results from trials of its Covid-19 vaccine, the second U.S. pharmaceutical company in a week to do so, gave the risk currencies an initial boost on Monday. But this hasn’t lasted long as the United States struggles to contain a second wave of infections, and with vaccine distribution not expected any time soon. The World Health Organization warned that "many questions" remained about the delivery and storage of a vaccine, and there was no time for complacency. Moderna said, however, that its vaccine can be stored at normal refrigerator temperatures for up to 30 days, something that should help ease distribution problems. The U.S. recorded more than 1 million new coronavirus cases last week, according to Reuters data, and several states, including Michigan, North Dakota and Washington, imposed new restrictions on public gatherings and indoor dining to try to slow the spread of the virus. At the same time, worries have grown about the prompt transition of power in Washington, with President-elect Joe Biden saying on Monday "more people may die" from the pandemic if outgoing President Donald Trump continues to block the move. Trump has still refused to officially concede the election, two weeks after the event, withholding cooperation with Biden’s transition team. Elsewhere, GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3199, following reports that the U.K. and the European Union could reach a Brexit divorce agreement by the beginning of next week. Recent gains for sterling tend to suggest that some form of a deal is largely priced into the foreign exchange market. The pound could weaken by 5% if the U.K. and European Union fail to reach a trade agreement, falling to $1.25 by the middle of next year, according to a Bloomberg survey of nine strategists.
  • The safe-haven Japanese yen sat near a one-week high and a steady U.S. dollar held commodity currencies in check on Wednesday, as worries about rising coronavirus cases tempered optimism around promising vaccine trials. Surging cases have driven record hospitalisations and fresh restrictions on gathering in the United States, while new outbreaks vex authorities in Japan, South Korea and Australia. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that there was "a long way to go" to economic recovery. Elsewhere sterling edged higher as traders hoped for a Brexit trade deal breakthrough Britain's chief negotiator David Frost has told Prime Minister Boris Johnson to expect a Brussels trade deal "early next week", The Sun newspaper reported, with "a possible landing zone" as soon as next Tuesday. As soft economic data in the United States weighed on dollar sentiment, strong industrial output in China kept the yuan's barnstorming run alive, sending it to an almost 29-month high of 6.5457 per dollar in offshore trade . Later on Wednesday British inflation figures are due and several U.S. Fed members make speeches. In emerging markets, focus is on a Bank of Thailand meeting, though most economists expect rates to be kept on hold.
  • Oil prices were mixed on Wednesday as a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. crude stocks and weaker U.S. retail sales stoked fears over fuel demand, although hopes that OPEC and its allies will delay a planned rise in oil output lent support. The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 4.2 million barrels last week, well above analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a build of 1.7 million barrels. Disappointing U.S. retail sales also raised concerns over weaker U.S. consumption in light of the COVID-19 resurgence, he said. U.S. retail sales increased less than expected in October, restrained by spiraling new COVID-19 infections and declining household income as millions of unemployed Americans lose government financial support. To tackle weaker energy demand amid a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Saudi Arabia called on fellow members of the OPEC+ grouping - OPEC and other producers including Russia - to be flexible in responding to oil market needs as it builds the case for a tighter production policy in 2021. He predicted WTI will stay boxed into a range of $39 to $44 a barrel until a full meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) later this month. OPEC+ held a ministerial committee meeting on Tuesday that made no formal recommendation. The group will hold a full ministerial meeting on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1 to discuss policy. OPEC+ members are leaning towards delaying a previously agreed plan to boost output in January by 2 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2% of global demand, sources told Reuters early this week. Supporting the case for a tighter supply policy next year, OPEC and its allies have revised oil demand scenarios for 2021 with demand seen weaker than previously anticipated, a confidential document seen by Reuters shows.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th November 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,882-1,900 1,916 1,933-1,945
Silver-XAG 24.95-25.65 26.05 26.80-27.60
Crude Oil 41.90-42.50 43.00 43.60-44.00
EURO/USD 1.1905-1.1950 1.1970 1.2010
GBP/USD 1.3290-1.3340 1.3400 1.3440-1.3480
USD/JPY 104.50-105.00 105.40 105.90-106.40

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th November 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,874 1,860 1,848-1.840
Silver-XAG 24.40-23.90 23.20 22.60-22.00
Crude Oil 41.40-41.00 40.35 39.40-38.90
EURO/USD 1.1860-1.1790 1.1750 1.1700-1.1635
GBP/USD 1.3250¬-1.3200 1.3150 1.3100-1.3020
USD/JPY 103.90 103.15-102.50 102.05

Intra-Day Strategy (18th November 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1893.40/oz and low of US$1876.77/oz. Gold up 0.428% at US$1880.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1885-1826 with risk below 1826, targeting 1900 and 1909-1916-1933. Sell below 1882-1933 keeping stop loss closing above 1933, targeting 1874-1860-1848 and 1834-1826.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,874
S2     1,860
S3     1,848-1.840
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,882-1,900
R2     1,916
R3     1,933-1,945

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.052

Buy
20-DMA   1896.50 Buy
50-DMA  

1905.83

Buy
100-DMA   1903.40 Buy
200-DMA   1785.87 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$24.79/oz and low of US$24.35/oz settled down by 0.979% at US$24.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 24.40-21.60 targeting 24.95-26.00 and 26.40-26.80-27.60, stop breakage below 23.50. Sell below 24.95-26.80 with stop loss above 26.80; targeting 24.00-23.20-22.60 and 22.00-21.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.40-23.90
S2     23.20
S3     22.60-22.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.95-25.65
R2     26.05
R3     26.80-27.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.681 Buy
20-DMA   24.34 Buy
50-DMA   24.59 Buy
100-DMA   24.34 Buy
200-DMA   20.28 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   57.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0373 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US41.89/bbl, intraday low of US$40.77/bbl and settled down by 0.257% to close at US$41.50/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 41.40-39.00 with risk daily closing below 39.10 and targeting 41.90-42.50 and 43.00-43.90-44.50. Sell in between 41.90-44.00 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 41.50-41.00-40.35 and 39.40-38.90-37.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     41.40-41.00
S2     40.35
S3     39.40-38.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     41.90-42.50
R2     43.00
R3     43.60-44.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.979 Sell
20-DMA   39.07 Sell
50-DMA   39.43 Sell
100-DMA   40.39 Buy
200-DMA   37.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.253 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1841/EUR, high of US$1.1893/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0869% to close at US$1.1860/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1860-1.1635 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1900-1.1950 and 1.1970-1.2010. Sell below 1.1905-1.2010 targeting 1.1860-1.1790 and 1.1750-1.1710-1.1635 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1860-1.1790
S2     1.1750
S3     1.1700-1.1635

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1905-1.1950
R2     1.1970
R3     1.2010

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1771 Buy
50-DMA   1.1771 Buy
100-DMA   1.1689 Buy
200-DMA   1.1339 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3184/GBP, high of US$1.3272/GBP and settled the day down by 0.810% to close at US$1.3247/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3290-1.3480 with targets at 1.3250-1.3150-1.3100 and 1.3020-1.2965-1.2910 stop-loss should be 1.3390. Buy above 1.3290-1.2880 with targets 1.3290-1.3340 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3250¬-1.3200
S2     1.3150
S3     1.3100-1.3020

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3290-1.3340
R2     1.3400
R3     1.3440-1.3480

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.539

Buy
20-DMA   1.3005 Sell
50-DMA   1.2979 Buy
100-DMA   1.2900 Buy
200-DMA   1.2703 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY104.06/USD and made an intraday high of JPY104.59/USD and settled the day down by 0.370% at JPY104.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 104.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 103.90-103.10-102.50 and 102.00-101.50. Long positions above 103.10-101.00 with targets of 103.90-104.00-106.90 and 107.50-107.90-108.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     103.90
S2     103.15-102.50
S3     102.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     104.50-105.00
R2     105.40
R3     105.90-106.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.726 Buy
20-DMA   104.61 Sell
50-DMA   105.11 Sell
100-DMA   105.73 Sell
200-DMA   106.28 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   34.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

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