AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia, clawing back gains from earlier losses. The market saw small moves as the number of COVID-19 cases globally continues to rise incessantly, and expectations of further monetary stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve begin to grow. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.09% to 92.472 by 10:07 PM ET (2:07 AM GMT). It has been on a downward trend in general, despite stocks also slipping, as the recently released industrial production and retail sales data highlighted the fragility of the U.S. economic recovery.The AUD saw a slight lag as South Australia imposed a lockdown to curb a fresh COVID-19 outbreak in the state, which overshadowed positive labor data released earlier in the day. The country’s employment change grew by 178,800 in October, beating the expected 30,000 contraction and the 29,500 contraction in September. The unemployment rate for the month was 7%, also beating the forecast 7.2% reading. The pound had been boosted by hopes of the U.K. and the European Union reaching a post-Brexit trade deal ahead of the end-of-year deadline. COVID-19 continues its global rampage, and the increasing number of global cases continues to concern investors. The U.S. remains in a “severe recession” and growth is vulnerable to swings in infection rates, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams warned on Wednesday. Williams also reiterated that the central bank would use all its tools to help in the economic recovery. New York City, the country’s largest public school district, said that it would suspend in-person teaching from Thursday to curb the spread of COVID-19 in the city. The number of U.S. deaths surpassed 250,000 as of Nov. 19, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Investors will also look to U.S. jobless claims data, due later in the day, which is expected to dictate the Fed’s next steps. Across the Atlantic, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will attend a European Parliament Committee hearing in Frankfurt later in the day.
  • The dollar nursed losses on Thursday following five sessions of declines as investors' longer-term optimism about COVID-19 vaccines ran in to worries about rising infections and risks to the fragile global economic recovery. Small gains against most majors lifted the greenback from Wednesday's eight-session low against a basket of currencies, but it remains near the month's trough of 92.129. Surging coronavirus cases in the United States have exerted opposing forces on the dollar, with a safety bid supporting the currency while fresh speculation of monetary easing to boost the economy has undermined it. Concern has also driven the safe-haven yen about 0.8% higher this week, recouping roughly three-quarters of the steep loss it suffered last week, when Pfizer announced its COVID-19 vaccine. The Times newspaper has reported Europe's leaders would demand the European Commission publish no-deal plans as the year-end deadline neared. The dollar's gains in the wake of the vaccine announcement as traders quit safe haven currencies have now nearly evaporated as selling pressure returned to the greenback through this week. With fiscal stimulus plans gone by the wayside as President Donald Trump's refusal to concede electoral defeat consumes lawmakers' attention, speculation is growing that Federal Reserve may further loosen monetary at its December meeting. Two top Fed officials on Wednesday held out the option of doing more and Treasuries have rallied in anticipation of a possible expansion of Fed bond buying. U.S. jobs figures will be closely watched on Thursday for guidance on the Fed's next moves and at 1000 GMT European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde appears at a European Parliament Committee hearing in Frankfurt.
  • Oil was down on Thursday morning in Asia, as COVID-19 numbers across the globe continued upwards and added to fuel demand worries. The global coronavirus pandemic is steadily worsening, with the virus now firmly entrenched across Europe and the U.S. Economically disruptive lockdowns, mostly recently in South Australia state, and public activity restrictions are also on the rise, pulling oil prices down. The latest COVID-19 data is reducing investor appetite for oil, with global cases now past 56 million, of which 11.5 million are in the U.S., along with over 250,000 deaths, nearly one fifth of total global fatalities, according to Johns Hopkins University. The positive news about vaccine progress over the last week appears to now be fully absorbed by the markets, with demand worries once again pushing to the fore as countries begin to harden their public health restrictions. However, not all the news is negative for oil. Wednesday's crude oil supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing a 768,000-barrel build for the week to Nov. 13, against the forecast 1.650 million. U.S. distillate stockpiles fell by 5.217 million barrels, higher than the expected 1.457 million. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute had reported a 4.174-million-barrel crude gain.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th November 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,874-1,882 1,900 1,916-1,933
Silver-XAG 24.95-25.65 26.05 26.80-27.60
Crude Oil 41.90-42.50 43.00 43.60-44.00
EURO/USD 1.1905-1.1950 1.1970 1.2010
GBP/USD 1.3290-1.3340 1.3400 1.3440-1.3480
USD/JPY 104.50-105.00 105.40 105.90-106.40

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th November 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,860-1,848 1.840 1,833-1,824
Silver-XAG 24.40-23.90 23.20 22.60-22.00
Crude Oil 41.40-41.00 40.35 39.40-38.90
EURO/USD 1.1840-1.1790 1.1750 1.1700-1.1635
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3150 1.3100-1.3020
USD/JPY 103.80 103.15-102.50 102.05

Intra-Day Strategy (19th November 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1884.76/oz and low of US$1863.50/oz. Gold down 0.413% at US$1872.03/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1860-1824 with risk below 1826, targeting 1874-1887-1900 and 1909-1916-1933. Sell below 1874-1933 keeping stop loss closing above 1933, targeting 1860-1848 and 1834-1824.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,860-1,848
S2     1.840
S3     1,833-1,824
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,874-1,882
R2     1,900
R3     1,916-1,933

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.052

Buy
20-DMA   1896.50 Buy
50-DMA  

1905.83

Buy
100-DMA   1903.40 Buy
200-DMA   1785.87 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$24.69/oz and low of US$24.18/oz settled down by % at US$24.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 24.40-21.60 targeting 24.95-26.00 and 26.40-26.80-27.60, stop breakage below 23.50. Sell below 24.95-26.80 with stop loss above 26.80; targeting 24.00-23.20-22.60 and 22.00-21.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.40-23.90
S2     23.20
S3     22.60-22.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.95-25.65
R2     26.05
R3     26.80-27.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.681 Buy
20-DMA   24.34 Buy
50-DMA   24.59 Buy
100-DMA   24.34 Buy
200-DMA   20.28 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   57.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0373 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US42.65/bbl, intraday low of US$41.28/bbl and settled up by 0.505% to close at US$41.72/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 41.40-39.00 with risk daily closing below 39.10 and targeting 41.90-42.50 and 43.00-43.90-44.50. Sell in between 41.90-44.00 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 41.50-41.00-40.35 and 39.40-38.90-37.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     41.40-41.00
S2     40.35
S3     39.40-38.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     41.90-42.50
R2     43.00
R3     43.60-44.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.979 Sell
20-DMA   39.07 Sell
50-DMA   39.43 Sell
100-DMA   40.39 Buy
200-DMA   37.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.253 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1848/EUR, high of US$1.1890/EUR and settled the day up by 0.072% to close at US$1.1852/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1860-1.1635 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1900-1.1950 and 1.1970-1.2010. Sell below 1.1905-1.2010 targeting 1.1860-1.1790 and 1.1750-1.1710-1.1635 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1840-1.1790
S2     1.1750
S3     1.1700-1.1635

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1905-1.1950
R2     1.1970
R3     1.2010

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1771 Buy
50-DMA   1.1771 Buy
100-DMA   1.1689 Buy
200-DMA   1.1339 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3238/GBP, high of US$1.3311/GBP and settled the day up by 0.183% to close at US$1.3267/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3290-1.3480 with targets at 1.3200-1.3150-1.3100 and 1.3020-1.2965-1.2910 stop-loss should be 1.3390. Buy above 1.3200-1.2880 with targets 1.3290-1.3340 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200
S2     1.3150
S3     1.3100-1.3020

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3290-1.3340
R2     1.3400
R3     1.3440-1.3480

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.539

Buy
20-DMA   1.3005 Sell
50-DMA   1.2979 Buy
100-DMA   1.2900 Buy
200-DMA   1.2703 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY103.64/USD and made an intraday high of JPY104.20/USD and settled the day down by 0.365% at JPY103.79/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 104.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 103.90-103.10-102.50 and 102.00-101.50. Long positions above 103.10-101.00 with targets of 103.90-104.00-106.90 and 107.50-107.90-108.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     103.80
S2     103.15-102.50
S3     102.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     104.50-105.00
R2     105.40
R3     105.90-106.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.726 Buy
20-DMA   104.61 Sell
50-DMA   105.11 Sell
100-DMA   105.73 Sell
200-DMA   106.28 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   34.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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