AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar halted its slide on Friday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called an end to some of the Federal Reserve's pandemic lending, derailing a risk rally and surprising investors who had counted on central bank support. The announcement damped a previously positive mood after reports that U.S. Senate Republican and Democrat leaders had agreed to resume negotiations on another coronavirus stimulus package. While Mnuchin's move was aimed at re-appropriating some $455 billion allocated to Treasury under the CARES Act in the spring for other spending, some investors were concerned about ending programmes that they think have played a vital role in reassuring markets. The Fed also said it "would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop," a rare open confrontation with the government. Also souring risk appetite, California ordered a curfew placed on all indoor social gatherings and non-essential activities outside the home across most of the state in a major escalation of measures to curb an alarming surge in coronavirus infection. For over a week, the dollar has lost ground against riskier currencies due to coronavirus vaccine breakthroughs and hopes of reduced political uncertainty after the U.S. election. The reaction in currency markets, however, has been limited compared with the U.S. stocks and bond markets. The British pound was on the defensive after the Times newspaper reported that European leaders will urge the European Commission to publish no-deal Brexit plans as the year-end deadline approaches.
  • The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia, with investors digesting U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin request on Thursday for the Federal Reserve to return funds earmarked for COVID-19 lending to businesses, nonprofits and local governments. Markets continued to avoid big moves overall, however. The dollar has lost ground against riskier currencies for over a week as the uncertainty from the U.S. presidential election dies down and vaccine developers continue to report progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine. Mnuchin’s move seeks to re-appropriate some $455 billion allocated to Treasury under the CARES Act earlier in the year, and sparked concern from some investors that programs that are viewed to have played a vital role in cushioning the COVID-19 blow will be suspended. The move also stopped the dollar’s slide after U.S. Senate Republicans reportedly agreed to resume negotiations with the Democrats on the latest COVID-19 stimulus package. The GBP/USD pair inched down 0.02% to 1.3259. The pound was down after reports that European leaders will urge the European Commission to publish no-deal Brexit plans as the deadline to reach a deal, set for the end of the year, rapidly approaches.
  • Oil was up on Friday morning in Asia despite conflicting U.S. stimulus reports, an apparent schism in OPEC, and the ever-rising COVID-19 numbers. The continuing rampage of COVID-19 across the globe continues to form the main driver of oil prices, as the coronavirus pandemic escalates, with Western economies particularly hard hit. There are over 56 million global cases and 1.36 million deaths, as of Nov. 20, with a fifth of both totals are from the U.S. alone, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The fears over lack of demand will be keeping a firm lid on prices for some time come. Other factors influencing oil’s current uncertain behavior stem from contradictory U.S. signals over a COVID-19 stimulus package and the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) appearing to conflict with each other over a way forward In the U.S., Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has asked for $455 billion of the current U.S. stimulus package to be returned to the U.S. Treasury, the funds were meant for general lending to local government, business, and non-profits. The lending program has been credited with playing a vital role in shielding the country from being far worse hit by the COVID-19-caused economic recession. The potential loss of the program is causing fears of an even greater slump in demand than previously factored in. The U.S. Federal Reserve, which is responsible for overseeing the loan program responded that it “would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy.” At the same time, U.S. Senate Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has agreed to return to the table with the Democrats to try and hammer out a new COVID-19 relief package, which gives rise to hopes of a sustaining demand, rather than a fall. Consequently, markets were uncertain of quite which way to turn. Adding to market caution are suggestions of split within OPEC, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are taking stance unusually at odds to that of Saudi Arabia. The UAE is suggesting that continuing the current supply cuts may not be the way forward, whereas Saudi Arabia has been strongly advocating the reverse. There have been strong, but unverified, reports that the UAE may even be considering quitting its membership of OPEC, should this be the case, it would be one of the largest crises in the oil cartel’s history. Investors now look to OPEC+'s full ministerial meeting, to be held on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, for further guidance.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th November 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,874-1,882 1,900 1,916-1,933
Silver-XAG 24.95-25.65 26.05 26.80-27.60
Crude Oil 41.90-42.50 43.00 43.60-44.00
EURO/USD 1.1905-1.1950 1.1970 1.2010
GBP/USD 1.3290-1.3340 1.3400 1.3440-1.3480
USD/JPY 104.50-105.00 105.40 105.90-106.40

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th November 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,860-1,848 1.840 1,833-1,824
Silver-XAG 23.90 23.20 22.60-22.00
Crude Oil 41.40-41.00 40.35 39.40-38.90
EURO/USD 1.1840-1.1790 1.1750 1.1700-1.1635
GBP/USD 1.3250-1.3200 1.3150 1.3100-1.3020
USD/JPY 103.80 103.15-102.50 102.05

Intra-Day Strategy (20th November 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1873.89/oz and low of US$1852.46/oz. Gold down 0.383% at US$1864.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1899) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1860-1824 with risk below 1826, targeting 1874-1887-1900 and 1909-1916-1933. Sell below 1874-1933 keeping stop loss closing above 1933, targeting 1860-1848 and 1834-1824.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,860-1,848
S2     1.840
S3     1,833-1,824
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,874-1,882
R2     1,900
R3     1,916-1,933

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.052

Buy
20-DMA   1888.50 Sell
50-DMA  

1899.25

Sell
100-DMA   1908.94 Sell
200-DMA   1793.28 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$24.36/oz and low of US$23.62/oz settled down by 1.156% at US$24.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 20DMA (24.50), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 24.00-21.60 targeting 24.95-26.00 and 26.40-26.80-27.60, stop breakage below 21.50. Sell below 24.95-26.80 with stop loss above 26.80; targeting 24.00-23.20-22.60 and 22.00-21.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.90
S2     23.20
S3     22.60-22.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.95-25.65
R2     26.05
R3     26.80-27.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.681 Buy
20-DMA   24.24 Sell
50-DMA   24.43 Sell
100-DMA   24.49 Sell
200-DMA   20.38 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0373 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US42.13/bbl, intraday low of US$41.25/bbl and settled up by 0.00% to close at US$41.82/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 40.52 which is a support level and breakage above will call for 42.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 41.40-39.00 with risk daily closing below 39.10 and targeting 41.90-42.50 and 43.00-43.90-44.50. Sell in between 41.90-44.00 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 41.50-41.00-40.35 and 39.40-38.90-37.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     41.40-41.00
S2     40.35
S3     39.40-38.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     41.90-42.50
R2     43.00
R3     43.60-44.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.213 Sell
20-DMA   39.55 Buy
50-DMA   39.82 Buy
100-DMA   40.52 Buy
200-DMA   36.75 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   63.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.623 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1815/EUR, high of US$1.1881/EUR and settled the day up by 0.072% to close at US$1.1873/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1860-1.1635 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1900-1.1950 and 1.1970-1.2010. Sell below 1.1905-1.2010 targeting 1.1860-1.1790 and 1.1750-1.1710-1.1635 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1840-1.1790
S2     1.1750
S3     1.1700-1.1635

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1905-1.1950
R2     1.1970
R3     1.2010

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1771 Buy
50-DMA   1.1771 Buy
100-DMA   1.1689 Buy
200-DMA   1.1339 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   92.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3195/GBP, high of US$1.3278/GBP and settled the day up by 0.049% to close at US$1.3260/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3290-1.3480 with targets at 1.3200-1.3150-1.3100 and 1.3020-1.2965-1.2910 stop-loss should be 1.3390. Buy above 1.3200-1.2880 with targets 1.3290-1.3340 and 1.3400-1.3450 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3250-1.3200
S2     1.3150
S3     1.3100-1.3020

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3290-1.3340
R2     1.3400
R3     1.3440-1.3480

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.539

Buy
20-DMA   1.3005 Sell
50-DMA   1.2979 Buy
100-DMA   1.2900 Buy
200-DMA   1.2703 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY103.71/USD and made an intraday high of JPY104.21/USD and settled the day down by % at JPY103.73/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 104.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 103.90-103.10-102.50 and 102.00-101.50. Long positions above 103.10-101.00 with targets of 103.90-104.00-106.90 and 107.50-107.90-108.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     103.80
S2     103.15-102.50
S3     102.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     104.50-105.00
R2     105.40
R3     105.90-106.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.726 Buy
20-DMA   104.61 Sell
50-DMA   105.11 Sell
100-DMA   105.73 Sell
200-DMA   106.28 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   34.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING