AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was on the defensive on Thursday as downbeat U.S. economic data and optimism about coronavirus vaccines prompted investors to seek out riskier assets tied to global commodities and emerging markets. The British pound traded near a more than two-month high against the dollar as investors awaited details on trade talks between Britain and the European Union this week. The dollar's fall has been so rapid that it could rebound in the short term, market watchers said, but some investors still expect a decline over the longer term as they shift positions in expectation that the coronavirus outbreak will wane next year. Investors have rushed to riskier currencies and emerging-market assets in recent weeks after positive data on COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and signs of stability in U.S. politics, which has weighed broadly on the dollar Sentiment for the greenback took a hit after data on Wednesday showed weekly U.S. jobless claims rose more than expected and personal incomes fell. Some economists said more job losses are likely as many U.S. states reinforce restrictions on businesses to curb a spread of coronavirus infections. The dollar index against a basket of six other currencies was near the lowest in more than two months. In Asia, trading in the dollar was subdued because U.S. financial markets are closed later on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. The Australian dollar traded near its highest since September, supported by improving risk appetite and strong Chinese demand for the commodities that Australia exports.
  • The dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia, subdued by weak U.S. economic data but with lingering optimism over the development of a COVID-19 vaccine leading investors to riskier assets tied to global commodities and emerging markets. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched down 0.09% to 91.918 by 10:05 PM ET (2:05 AM GMT), its lowest level in more than two months. It was also close to its weakest in more than two months against the euro. The dollar also took a hit after data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S.’s GDP grew 33.1% quarter-on-quarter during the third quarter, just missing the 33.1% growth in forecasts prepared by Investing.com but unchanged from the second quarter The data also showed 778,000 jobless claims for the past week, higher than the forecast 730,000 claims and the 748,000 claims submitted during the previous week. There were grim warnings that even more job losses could be on the way, with many states imposing restrictive measures to curb the spiking number of COVID-19 cases. The number of global COVID-19 cases has surpassed 60 million as of Nov. 26, of which over 12.7 million are U.S. cases, according to Johns Hopkins University data Positive data for three vaccine candidates’ efficacies, and a smoother transition to the Joe Biden administration in the U.S than appeared to be likely, saw a recent turn towards riskier currencies and emerging market assets. Although the dollar’s subsequent fall was rapid enough to open the possibility of a rebound in the short term, some investors warned that a longer-term decline could be possible and are already shifting their positions in anticipation of the COVID-19 outbreak waning in 2021. The pound was near its strongest level against the dollar since Sep. 2, while holding steady against the euro. Investors await details on the Brexit trade talks between the U.K. and the European Union this week. The Asian session saw small moves overall as the U.S. markets close for the Thanksgiving holiday.
  • Oil was up on Thursday morning in Asia, with a surprise draw in U.S. crude oil supplies tempering fears of an oversupply. Hopes for a return to pre-COVID-19 conditions and demand levels also continue to drive investor appetite. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a draw of 754,000 barrels for the week to Nov. 20. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.2 million barrels in the week to 230.2 million barrels, the EIA said, more than forecasts for a 614,000-barrel rise. Data from the American Petroleum Institute released a day earlier showed an 8-million-barrel build in supplies The price of oil continues to rise as markets look toward a return to global normality and demand rising back to the levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. With a number of COVID-19 vaccines now moving toward public release, there is strong optimism among investors that 2021 will see economic conditions that return oil demand to its usual levels. The encouraging vaccine results are “pushing aside concerns of enduring containment measures and prompting some follow-through buying from the speculative community,” Citigroup (NYSE:C) Global Markets said in a note. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has urged people to forgo big family gatherings, wear protective masks and maintain social distancing for the Thanksgiving holiday in the face of the surging coronavirus pandemic. But Americans are defying pleas from officials to stay home. The United States has recorded 2.3 million new infections in the past two weeks. Oil prices have been on a tear lately, with WTI and Brent both rising about $11 per barrel, or nearly 30%, over the past five weeks. The rally has come on the back of promising coronavirus vaccine trials, even as a rash of new COVID-19 infections are reported across a nation with 12.6 million positive cases since January and almost 260,000 fatalities related to that. US COVID-19 hospitalizations have hit daily record highs of above 100,000 in recent weeks, with New York reporting 5,000 cases on Wednesday, the first such statistic since April. Wednesday’s run-up in crude prices also seemed underpinned by another inventory data that had been improving of late: diesel, which powers the trucks that form the backbone of the country’s delivery system that had become all the more important due to the century’s worst pandemic ever.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th November 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,821-1,833 1.840 1,848-1,860
Silver-XAG 23.90-24.95 25.65 26.05-26.80
Crude Oil 45.90-46.50 47.50 48.60-49.30
EURO/USD 1.1950-1.1970 1.2010 1.2050-1.2100
GBP/USD 1.3400-1.3440 1.3480 1.3550
USD/JPY 104.50-105.00 105.40 105.90-106.40

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th November 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,805 1,796 1,790-1,781
Silver-XAG 23.20 22.60 22.00-21.50
Crude Oil 45.50-44.60 44.00 43.60-43.00
EURO/USD 1.1905-1.1840 1.1790 1.1950-1.1970
GBP/USD 1.3340-1.3290 1.3250 1.3200-1.3150
USD/JPY 103.90 103.15-102.50 102.05

Intra-Day Strategy (26th November 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1817.62/oz and low of US$1801.67/oz. Gold up 0.017% at US$1806.80/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1899) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1800-1781 with risk below 1781, targeting 1821-1833-1840 and 1848-1860. Sell below 1821-1860 keeping stop loss closing above 1860, targeting 1805-1796 and 1790-1781.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,805
S2     1,796
S3     1,790-1,781
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,821-1,833
R2     1.840
R3     1,848-1,860

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.763

Buy
20-DMA   1877.19 Sell
50-DMA  

1880.96

Sell
100-DMA   1909.62 Sell
200-DMA   1796.62 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   7.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -19.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$23.51/oz and low of US$23.08/oz settled up by 0.404% at US$23.33/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 50DMA (24.30), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy silver in between 23.20-21.60, targeting 23.90-24.95-25.65 and 26.05-26.40-26.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.50. Sell below 24.95-26.80 with stop loss above 26.80; targeting 24.00-23.20-22.60 and 22.00-21.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.20
S2     22.60
S3     22.00-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.90-24.95
R2     25.65
R3     26.05-26.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.681 Buy
20-DMA   24.17 Sell
50-DMA   24.28 Sell
100-DMA   24.59 Sell
200-DMA   20.43 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1573 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US45.20/bbl, intraday low of US$42.85/bbl and settled up by 4.46% to close at US$44.76/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 40.58 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 40.10. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 45.60-42.00 with risk daily closing below 42.00 and targeting 45.90-46.50-47.50 and 48.60-49.30. Sell in between 46.00-49.30 with stop loss at 49.30; targeting 44.60-44.00-43.60 and 43.00-42.50-41.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.50-44.60
S2     44.00
S3     43.60-43.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     45.90-46.50
R2     47.50
R3     48.60-49.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.489 Sell
20-DMA   40.98 Buy
50-DMA   40.26 Buy
100-DMA   40.70 Buy
200-DMA   36.60 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.1415 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1881/EUR, high of US$1.1929/EUR and settled the day up by 0.198% to close at US$1.1912/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1905-1.1635 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1950-1.1970 and 1.2010-1.2050-1.2100. Sell below 1.1950-1.2110 targeting 1.1905-1.1860-1.1790 and 1.1750-1.1710 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1905-1.1840
S2     1.1790
S3     1.1950-1.1970

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1950-1.1970
R2     1.2010
R3     1.2050-1.2100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1794 Buy
50-DMA   1.1774 Buy
100-DMA   1.1748 Buy
200-DMA   1.1386 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3303/GBP, high of US$1.3392/GBP and settled the day up by 0.077% to close at US$1.3365/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3400-1.3550 with targets at 1.3340-1.3290-1.3200 and 1.3150-1.3100-1.3020 stop-loss should be 1.3550. Buy above 1.3340-1.2880 with targets 1.3400-1.3450 and 1.3480-1.3550 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3340-1.3290
S2     1.3250
S3     1.3200-1.3150

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3400-1.3440
R2     1.3480
R3     1.3550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.539

Buy
20-DMA   1.3132 Sell
50-DMA   1.3005 Buy
100-DMA   1.2988 Buy
200-DMA   1.2717 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY104.24/USD and made an intraday high of JPY104.59/USD and settled the day up by 0.0047% at JPY104.43/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 104.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 103.90-103.10-102.50 and 102.00-101.50. Long positions above 103.10-101.00 with targets of 103.90-104.00-106.90 and 107.50-107.90-108.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     103.90
S2     103.15-102.50
S3     102.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     104.50-105.00
R2     105.40
R3     105.90-106.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.726 Buy
20-DMA   104.61 Sell
50-DMA   105.11 Sell
100-DMA   105.73 Sell
200-DMA   106.28 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   34.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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