AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia, holding steady amid small market moves. However, it looks set to see weekly losses as improved risk appetite continue to apply pressure. The pound saw a near three-month high as well on Thursday, with investors look towards progress on Brexit talks between the U.K. and the EU. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier is reportedly due to speak with some EU fisheries ministers later in the day to discuss the current state of the trade discussions. Volume and moves were thin overall, with the U.S. market closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Optimism over several COVID-19 vaccine developers, including Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) and Moderna Inc, announcing positive results for their offerings over the last two weeks, put the dollar under pressure as investors sought risker assets. Also boosting the trend was the beginnings of a transition from incumbent President Donald Trump's administration to that of President-elect Joe Biden. Although Barclay’s Kadota saw the dollar remaining under pressure in the short-term as vaccine hope linger, market expectations see it firming in mid-term. Across the Atlantic, European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane and the minutes from the ECB’s October meeting further confirmed the expected announcement of stimulus measures when the central bank meets in December. The minutes showed policymakers in agreement that complacency is not an option as Europe continues to struggle through a second wave of COVID-19 cases and beginning to prepare for more stimulus measures. Lane also warned that tolerating “a longer phase of even lower inflation” would hurt consumption and investment as well as cementing expectations for low price growth in the long run. The euro saw little change against the dollar but did reach a more than two-months high on Thursday in the wake of the minutes’ release.
  • The dollar held steady in thin trade on Friday but was on track for weekly losses against a basket of major currencies as it remained under pressure on improving risk appetite. The dollar has been under pressure this week, as riskier currencies benefited from increased optimism over a string of COVID-19 vaccines news reports and hopes for a more stable period in U.S. politics. While the greenback will remain under pressure in near term due to prolonged "risk-on" sentiment led by vaccine hopes, Barclay's Kadota said the market expects the currency to firm in mid-term. Dovish messaging from the European Central Bank's chief economist and the minutes from last month's meeting provided further confirmation of widely expected stimulus at its December gathering. The central bank's minutes from its October meeting showed policymakers agreed they could not afford to seem complacent during the second wave of the coronavirus, opting instead to lay the groundwork for more stimulus. The ECB's chief economist Philip Lane had also warned that tolerating "a longer phase of even lower inflation" would hurt consumption and investment as well as cementing expectations for low price growth in the future. The European Union chief negotiator Michel Barnier will talk on Friday with some of the bloc's ministers responsible for fisheries to discuss the state of play in the trade discussions with Britain, EU official said.
  • Oil prices were lower on Friday in quiet trade due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, dropping amid concerns about oversupply and doubts about a vaccine to end the coronavirus pandemic. Both benchmarks have risen about 6% this week, after AstraZeneca earlier announced that its COVID-19 vaccine could be up to 90% effective, adding to successful trial results of two others under development in the fight to end the worst pandemic in a century. But questions have been raised over the so-called "vaccine for the world" as several scientists have sounded doubts over how robust the results of the trials were. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers including Russia that make up the OPEC+ grouping are leaning towards delaying next year's planned increase in oil output, three sources close to OPEC+ said. OPEC+ was planning to raise output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January - about 2% of global consumption - as it moves to ease this year's record supply cuts. OPEC+ ministers are due to meet from Monday Rising Libyan output is contributing to concerns about oversupply in the market as many people are ignoring lockdown advice and travelling. Nearly 6 million Americans took air trips from Friday to Wednesday in advance of the Thanksgiving break as they ignored advice from the Centers for Disease Control to stay home, the U.S. Transportation Security Administration said. Oil prices were lower on Friday in quiet trade due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, dropping amid concerns about oversupply and doubts about a vaccine to end the coronavirus pandemic. Nearly 6 million Americans took air trips from Friday to Wednesday in advance of the Thanksgiving break as they ignored advice from the Centers for Disease Control to stay home, the U.S. Transportation Security Administration said. Oil prices pulled back overnight from their eight-month high, with disagreement in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) over continuing supply cuts past their current January expiry date causing waves within the cartel. The disagreement between OPEC’s member states has come to the boil as prices have risen, with some countries urging a rapid return to the previous, higher supply quotas. Member countries with oil-reliant economies have felt the pinch of low oil value coupled with restricted production quotas and are eager to boost supply while prices are bullish. Despite the internal dissent in the group, OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) are expected to maintain the supply caps past the current end date by at least three months. The exact dates will be decided at the 180th Meeting of the OPEC Conference and the 12th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, respectively.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th November 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,821-1,833 1.840 1,848-1,860
Silver-XAG 23.90-24.95 25.65 26.05-26.80
Crude Oil 45.90-46.50 47.50 48.60-49.30
EURO/USD 1.1950-1.1970 1.2010 1.2050-1.2100
GBP/USD 1.3400-1.3440 1.3480 1.3550
USD/JPY 104.50-105.00 105.40 105.90-106.40

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th November 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,805 1,796 1,790-1,781
Silver-XAG 23.20 22.60 22.00-21.50
Crude Oil 45.00-44.60 44.00 43.60-43.00
EURO/USD 1.1905-1.1840 1.1790 1.1750-1.1700
GBP/USD 1.3340-1.3290 1.3250 1.3200-1.3150
USD/JPY 103.90 103.15-102.50 102.05

Intra-Day Strategy (27th November 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1818.19/oz and low of US$1805.67/oz. Gold up 0.112% at US$1808.90/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1899) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1800-1781 with risk below 1781, targeting 1821-1833-1840 and 1848-1860. Sell below 1821-1860 keeping stop loss closing above 1860, targeting 1805-1796 and 1790-1781.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,805
S2     1,796
S3     1,790-1,781
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,821-1,833
R2     1.840
R3     1,848-1,860

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.763

Buy
20-DMA   1877.19 Sell
50-DMA  

1880.96

Sell
100-DMA   1909.62 Sell
200-DMA   1796.62 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   7.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -19.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$23.47/oz and low of US$23.17/oz settled up by 0.0515% at US$23.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 50DMA (24.30), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, Sell below 23.95-26.80 with stop loss above 26.80; targeting 24.00-23.20-22.60 and 22.00-21.60. Buy silver in between 23.20-21.60, targeting 23.90-24.95-25.65 and 26.05-26.40-26.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.20
S2     22.60
S3     22.00-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.90-24.95
R2     25.65
R3     26.05-26.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.681 Buy
20-DMA   24.17 Sell
50-DMA   24.28 Sell
100-DMA   24.59 Sell
200-DMA   20.43 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1573 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US46.11/bbl, intraday low of US$44.76/bbl and settled down by 2.33% to close at US$44.86/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 40.58 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 40.10. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 45.00-42.00 with risk daily closing below 42.00 and targeting 45.90-46.50-47.50 and 48.60-49.30. Sell in between 46.00-49.30 with stop loss at 49.30; targeting 44.60-44.00-43.60 and 43.00-42.50-41.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     45.00-44.60
S2     44.00
S3     43.60-43.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     45.90-46.50
R2     47.50
R3     48.60-49.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.489 Sell
20-DMA   40.98 Buy
50-DMA   40.26 Buy
100-DMA   40.70 Buy
200-DMA   36.60 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.1415 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1884/EUR, high of US$1.1940/EUR and settled the day down by 0.010% to close at US$1.1911/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1905-1.1635 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1950-1.1970 and 1.2010-1.2050-1.2100. Sell below 1.1950-1.2110 targeting 1.1905-1.1860-1.1790 and 1.1750-1.1710 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1905-1.1840
S2     1.1790
S3     1.1750-1.1700

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1950-1.1970
R2     1.2010
R3     1.2050-1.2100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1794 Buy
50-DMA   1.1774 Buy
100-DMA   1.1748 Buy
200-DMA   1.1386 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3348/GBP, high of US$1.3375/GBP and settled the day up by 0.081% to close at US$1.3371/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3400-1.3550 with targets at 1.3340-1.3290-1.3200 and 1.3150-1.3100-1.3020 stop-loss should be 1.3550. Buy above 1.3340-1.2880 with targets 1.3400-1.3450 and 1.3480-1.3550 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3340-1.3290
S2     1.3250
S3     1.3200-1.3150

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3400-1.3440
R2     1.3480
R3     1.3550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.539

Buy
20-DMA   1.3132 Sell
50-DMA   1.3005 Buy
100-DMA   1.2988 Buy
200-DMA   1.2717 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY104.24/USD and made an intraday high of JPY104.59/USD and settled the day up by 0.0047% at JPY104.43/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 104.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 103.90-103.10-102.50 and 102.00-101.50. Long positions above 103.10-101.00 with targets of 103.90-104.00-106.90 and 107.50-107.90-108.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     103.90
S2     103.15-102.50
S3     102.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     104.50-105.00
R2     105.40
R3     105.90-106.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.726 Buy
20-DMA   104.61 Sell
50-DMA   105.11 Sell
100-DMA   105.73 Sell
200-DMA   106.28 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   34.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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