AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar weakened in early European trade Friday, with optimism of a recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic weighing on this safe haven, while the pound weakened on growing Brexit uncertainty. An advisory panel to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday recommended approval of Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)'s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use, paving the way for vaccinations to get underway in America, potentially as soon as next week. This comes as Covid-19 cases spike in the U.S., recording daily records for new infections and deaths. The surge has hit business across the country, pushing initial jobless claims to their highest level since September, pointing to the economic damage caused by this surge in cases. Elsewhere, GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.3287, continuing the sharp losses seen overnight after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said late Thursday there was "a strong possibility" Britain and the European Union would fail to strike a Brexit trade deal. Sterling has shed just short of 1% so far this week as negotiations between the U.K. and the EU to agree a trade deal over some $1 trillion in annual trade have proved fruitless to date. Additionally, EUR/USD edged 0.1% lower to 1.2129, dropping a touch but remaining not far off the previous week’s 2 1/2-year high of $1.2177. The European Central Bank also deployed another round of monetary stimulus totaling EUR500 billion ($605 billion) on Thursday as widely expected, in order to help the fight against the second wave of Covid-19 cases hitting the region. ECB President Christine Lagarde added that the euro’s exchange rate had not been targeted during the central bank’s policy meeting on Thursday.
  • The dollar weakened in early European trade Friday, with optimism of a recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic weighing on this safe haven, while the pound weakened on growing Brexit uncertainty. An advisory panel to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday recommended approval of Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)'s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use, paving the way for vaccinations to get underway in America, potentially as soon as next week. This comes as Covid-19 cases spike in the U.S., recording daily records for new infections and deaths. The surge has hit business across the country, pushing initial jobless claims to their highest level since September, pointing to the economic damage caused by this surge in cases. Elsewhere, GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.3287, continuing the sharp losses seen overnight after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said late Thursday there was "a strong possibility" Britain and the European Union would fail to strike a Brexit trade deal. Sterling has shed just short of 1% so far this week as negotiations between the U.K. and the EU to agree a trade deal over some $1 trillion in annual trade have proved fruitless to date. The European Central Bank also deployed another round of monetary stimulus totaling EUR500 billion ($605 billion) on Thursday as widely expected, in order to help the fight against the second wave of Covid-19 cases hitting the region. ECB President Christine Lagarde added that the euro’s exchange rate had not been targeted during the central bank’s policy meeting on Thursday.
  • Oil rose on Friday, extending a sharp rally overnight that saw Brent rise above $50 for the first time since March, as coronavirus vaccination rollouts kept hopes alive that demand for crude would build up next year. That leaves prices set for a sixth consecutive week of gains as promising vaccine trials helped quell gloom over record increases in the number of new infections and deaths around the world in the coronavirus pandemic. Britain began inoculations this week and the United States could start vaccinations as early as the coming weekend, while Canada on Wednesday approved its first vaccine with initial shots due from next week. Outside advisers for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration have voted to endorse emergency use of Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)'s vaccine, paving the way for the agency to authorise its use to inoculate a nation that has lost more than 285,000 lives to COVID-19. A big jump in U.S. crude stockpiles served as a reminder that there is still plenty of supply available, but was all but ignored as bulls ran through the market this week. They were encouraged by signs that Asian demand is strong, with India's biggest refiner saying that it was operating at 100% capacity of all its nine units for the first time since early this year. Oil was down ever so slightly on Friday morning in Asia, with prices holding on after a sharp rally overnight, as the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines increased hopes that fuel demand would recover in 2021. Prices had looked set for a sixth consecutive week of gains, with positive vaccine news helping to disperse the gloom over ever-increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases globally, with some countries seeing record numbers of cases and deaths. The U.K. began a mass inoculation program for BNT162b2, the COVID-19 vaccine co-developed by Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech SE (F:22UAy), during the past week. Health Canada approved the shot on Wednesday, with inoculations due to begin in the following week. The U.S. is set to be the next country to approve BNT162b2. A panel of outside advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Thursday voted 17-4 to endorse emergency use of the shot, which is set to clear the way for an emergency use authorization from the FDA within days. Vaccine distribution and inoculations in the U.S. are set to begin almost immediately after the clearance. A potential hiccup to the market, in the form of larger-than-expected builds in U.S. crude oil supplies reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) was largely ignored as bullish sentiment ran through the market during the week. EIA supply data, released on Wednesday, showed a 15.189-million-barrel build for the week to Dec. 4, while Tuesday's API data showed a 1.141-million-barrel build. Investors were also encouraged by signs of strong Asian demand. India’s biggest refiner Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. said on Thursday that it was operating at 100% capacity of all its nine units for the first time since early 2020.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th December 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,849-1,860 1,868 1,880-1,890
Silver-XAG 23.90¬-24.95 25.65 26.50-27.00
Crude Oil 47.50 48.00 49.20-50.00
EURO/USD 1.2150 1.2190 1.2240-1.2275
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3400 1.3480 1.3520-1.3550
USD/JPY 104.50-105.00 105.40 105.90-106.40

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th December 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1.836 1,821-1,808 1,790
Silver-XAG 23.20 22.60 22.00-21.50
Crude Oil 46.50-45.10 44.60 43.90-43.00
EURO/USD 1.2090-1.2050 1.1990 1.1950-1.1905
GBP/USD 1.3250 1.3200 1.3160-1.3085
USD/JPY 103.90 103.15 102.50-102.05

Intra-Day Strategy (11th December 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1849.95/oz and low of US$1825.32/oz. Gold down 0.167% at US$1835.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1899) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1836-1796 with risk below 1796, targeting 1840-1849-1868 and 1880-1890-1900. Sell below 1839-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1829-1821-1808 and 1796-1790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.836
S2     1,821-1,808
S3     1,790
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,849-1,860
R2     1,868
R3     1,880-1,890

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.041

Buy
20-DMA   1844.17 Sell
50-DMA  

1878.01

Sell
100-DMA   1910.98 Sell
200-DMA   1804.92 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -17.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$24.27/oz and low of US$23.70/oz settled up by 0.129% at US$24.96/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 50DMA (24.30), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, Sell below 23.95-26.80 with stop loss above 26.80; targeting 23.20-22.00 and 21.60-21.20-20.50. Buy silver in between 23.50-21.60, targeting 24.95-25.65 and 26.05-26.40-26.80 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.20
S2     22.60
S3     22.00-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.90¬-24.95
R2     25.65
R3     26.50-27.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.473 Buy
20-DMA   24.11 Sell
50-DMA   25.04 Sell
100-DMA   25.04 Sell
200-DMA   20.76 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   67.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.121 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US47.82/bbl, intraday low of US$45.65/bbl and settled up by 2.756% to close at US$47.04/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 40.58 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 40.10. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 46.50-42.00 with risk daily closing below 42.00 and targeting 47.50-48.00-48.60 and 49.30-50.00. Sell in between 47.50-50.30 with stop loss at 50.30; targeting 44.60-44.00-43.60 and 43.00-42.50-41.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     46.50-45.10
S2     44.60
S3     43.90-43.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     47.50
R2     48.00
R3     49.20-50.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.216 Sell
20-DMA   43.20 Buy
50-DMA   40.88 Buy
100-DMA   40.98 Buy
200-DMA   36.44 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   70.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.547 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.2070/EUR, high of US$1.2158/EUR and settled the day up by 0.486% to close at US$1.2136/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 12090-1.1840 with risk below 1.1800, targeting 1.2150-1.2190 and 1.2240-1.2275. Sell below 1.2150-1.2275 targeting 1.2050-1.1990-1.1960 and 1.1905-1.1860 1.1790 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2275.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2090-1.2050
S2     1.1990
S3     1.1950-1.1905

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2150
R2     1.2190
R3     1.2240-1.2275

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   74.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1898 Buy
50-DMA   1.1794 Buy
100-DMA   1.1494 Buy
200-DMA   1.1426 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   97.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3244/GBP, high of US$1.3477/GBP and settled the day down by 0.616% to close at US$1.3291/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3300-1.3600 with targets at 1.3290-1.3200 and 1.3150-1.3100 stop-loss should be 1.3550. Buy above 1.3250-1.2880 with targets 1.3340-1.3400-1.3480 and 1.3520-1.3600 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3250
S2     1.3200
S3     1.3160-1.3085

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3300-1.3400
R2     1.3480
R3     1.3520-1.3550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.783

Buy
20-DMA   1.3317 Sell
50-DMA   1.3133 Buy
100-DMA   1.3080 Buy
200-DMA   1.2746 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.009 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY104.22/USD and made an intraday high of JPY104.57/USD and settled the day up by % at JPY104.22/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 104.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 103.90-103.10 and 102.50-102.00. Long positions above 104.00-101.00 with targets of 105.00-106.90 and 107.50-107.90-108.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     103.90
S2     103.15
S3     102.50-102.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     104.50-105.00
R2     105.40
R3     105.90-106.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.307 Buy
20-DMA   104.40 Sell
50-DMA   105.36 Sell
100-DMA   105.36 Sell
200-DMA   106.45 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   57.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.199 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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