AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar traded lower Tuesday, but losses are small as uncertainty over the U.S. Senate runoffs in Georgia provided some support to the safe-haven. GBP/USD climbed 0.2% to 1.3602, recovering some of its losses after the announcement of a new six-week national lockdown in England, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was up 0.8% at 0.7721, approaching the 2-1/2-year high of 0.7743 touched on the final day of 2020. Traders are watching the Senate runoffs in Georgia later Tuesday closely, as control of this branch of the U.S. government is potentially up for grabs. This could influence the economic policies incoming President Joe Biden will be able to introduce, including boosting stimulus and infrastructure spending. Both contests are seen as being very tight and the outcomes may not be immediately known. The U.S. economic data calendar Tuesday includes the December ISM Manufacturing PMI release at 10 AM ET (1500 GMT), while there will be a couple of officials from the Federal Reserve scheduled to speak, a day before the central bank issues the minutes of its last meeting of 2020. Elsewhere, the USD/CNY pair rose 0.1% to 6.4646, after some late yuan selling. Earlier Tuesday, China set the official yuan exchange rate at the strongest since abandoning its peg in 2005, with the midpoint at 6.4760 per dollar prior to the market open, 1% firmer than the previous fix. That fpllowed the New York Stock Exchange's abrupt change of heart on delisting some of the country's biggest telecoms companies, a move that some interpreted as a hint of rapprochement between the U.S. and China after Donald Trump leaves the White House.
  • The dollar fell against major peers on Tuesday as China set the official yuan exchange rate at the strongest since abandoning its peg in 2005, which helped support demand for other units. Earlier, the greenback had found support as concerns about surging COVID-19 cases and uncertainty about U.S. runoff elections in Georgia spurred a retreat in U.S. stocks from record highs to start the year and kindled demand for safer assets. While investor caution about the yuan's heady rally prompted some later selling in the Chinese currency on Tuesday, the PBOC's action nonetheless lifted risk sentiment in currency markets. Sterling has been swung by a surge in infections of a fast-spreading new coronavirus strain in the UK, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordering a nationwide lockdown.
  • Gold was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, with investors awaiting the results of a runoff election in the U.S state of Georgia that will indicate the likelihood of further U.S. stimulus measures. Prices rose more than 2% during the previous session, boosted by rising number of global COVID-19 cases and the ensuing lockdowns, lower U.S. real yields, and a weaker dollar. The dollar, which usually moves inversely to gold, was down on Tuesday. The two Senate seats up for grabs in the Georgia election will decide control of the chamber, and the ease with which President-elect Joe Biden can push his agenda, such as rewriting the tax code to boosting stimulus, when his administration takes office later in the month. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also due to release the minutes from its December policy meeting on Wednesday. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said on Monday that monetary policy will stay accommodative for “quite some time,” ahead of the release. The number of global COVID-19 cases continues to rise, with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday ordering a new national lockdown in his country has also seen investors turn to the safe-haven asset. Some investors including Oanda Corp. senior market analyst Craig Erlam warned that the spread of Covid-19 during the holidays and tighter restrictions will have a significant toll on the economy. However, the impact will mostly be consigned the first quarter of the year as vaccine rollouts continue.
  • Oil prices edged down on Tuesday before deadlocked talks between major producers about potential changes in February output are set to continue later in the day while fuel demand concerns lingered amid new COVID-19 lockdowns. Both contracts fell more than 1% on Monday after the OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, failed to agree on changes to February's oil output. Saudi Arabia argued against pumping more because of new lockdowns while Russia led calls for higher production, citing recovering demand. OPEC+ will resume the talks later on Tuesday. England went into a new lockdown on Monday as its COVID-19 cases surged following the emergence of a more transmissible variant of the coronavirus. At the same time, rising tensions in the Middle East supported oil prices. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps on Monday seized a South Korean-flagged tanker in Gulf waters and detained its crew amid a dispute between Tehran and Seoul over Iranian funds frozen in South Korean banks because of U.S. sanctions.
  • Oil was down Tuesday morning in Asia, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, or OPEC+, continues deadlocked talks on February output. Both Brent and WTI contracts fell more than 1% during the previous session as OPEC+ was forced to extended Monday’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee and 13th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, with members failing to agree on the failed to agree on February’s oil output levels. Fuel demand worries also continue to linger as the number of global COVID-19 cases continues to rise and more countries introduce restrictive measures. The U.K. was the latest country to tighten measures, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordering a new, tougher national lockdown on Monday. Saudi Arabia argued against an increase in production as more countries contemplate and impose new lockdowns, while Russia argued for the increase, citing recovering fuel demand. Talks will resume laler in the day, but some investors were more concerned about the impact of the new B177 strain of COVID-19 on the global economic recovery. Meanwhile, prices were boosted after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps on Monday seized a South Korean-flagged tanker in Gulf waters and detained its crew. Tensions between Tehran and Seoul had been mounting over $7 billion of Iranian funds frozen in South Korean banks thanks to U.S. sanctions. South Korean foreign minister Kyung Wha Kang said earlier that she is making diplomatic efforts to secure the release the tanker. The foreign ministry is reviewing whether vice foreign minister Jong Kun Choi would be visiting Tehran on Sundays as scheduled. Investors also await the release of U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th January 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,940 1,948 1,955-1965
Silver-XAG 27.35-27.65 28.00 28.50-28.90
Crude Oil 47.80-48.50 49.30 50.00-51.00
EURO/USD 1.2300-1.2350 1.2400 1.2475-1.2545
GBP/USD 1.3590-1.3670 1.3710 1.3800-1.3860
USD/JPY 103.15-103.80 104.50 105.00-105.40

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th January 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,931-1,918 1,900 1,887-1,878
Silver-XAG 27.00-26.50 26.05 25.60-25.05
Crude Oil 47.00-46.45 45.60 45.00-43.80
EURO/USD 1.2210-1.2170 1.2140 1.2090-1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3540 1.3470 1.3400-1.3340
USD/JPY 102.50 102.05 101.60-101.20

Intra-Day Strategy (5th January 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1944.34/oz and low of US$1903.12/oz. Gold up 2.045% at US$1942.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1899) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1931-1878 with risk below 1878, targeting 1940-1948 and 1955-1965. Sell below 1940-1965 keeping stop loss closing above 1965, targeting 1931-1885-1878-1860 and 1849-1836.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,931-1,918
S2     1,900
S3     1,887-1,878
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,940
R2     1,948
R3     1,955-1965

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.447

Buy
20-DMA   1873.04 Buy
50-DMA  

1867.81

Buy
100-DMA   1895.14 Sell
200-DMA   1831.55 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   16.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$27.55/oz and low of US$26.52/oz settled up by 0.379% at US$27.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 50DMA (24.30), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 27.30-28.90 with stop loss above 28.90; targeting 27.00-26.50-26.05 and 25.60-25.05-24.50. Buy silver in between 27.00-25.05, targeting 27.30-27.65-28.00 and 28.50-29.00 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     27.00-26.50
S2     26.05
S3     25.60-25.05

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     27.35-27.65
R2     28.00
R3     28.50-28.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.957 Buy
20-DMA   25.42 Sell
50-DMA   24.56 Sell
100-DMA   25.06 Sell
200-DMA   21.68 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   77.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.7277 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US48.44/bbl, intraday low of US$47.23/bbl and settled down by 1.191% to close at US$47.37/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 45.74 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 47.00-43.80 with risk daily closing below 43.80 and targeting 47.80-48.50-49.30 and 50.00-50.40-51.00. Sell in between 47.80-51.00 with stop loss at 51.00; targeting 47.00-46.45-45.60 and 45.00-43.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     47.00-46.45
S2     45.60
S3     45.00-43.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     47.80-48.50
R2     49.30
R3     50.00-51.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.216 Sell
20-DMA   47.44 Buy
50-DMA   43.67 Buy
100-DMA   42.07 Buy
200-DMA   37.51 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   63.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.287 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.2228/EUR, high of US$1.2309/EUR and settled the day up by 0.058% to close at US$1.2245/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2177), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1970. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.2200-1.1840 with risk below 1.1800, targeting 1.2300-1.2350 and 1.2400-1.2475-1.2545. Sell below 1.2300-1.2545 targeting 1.2245-1.2190-1.2150 and 1.2090-1.2050-1.1990 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2545.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2210-1.2170
S2     1.2140
S3     1.2090-1.2050

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2300-1.2350
R2     1.2400
R3     1.2475-1.2545

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.2177 Buy
50-DMA   1.1972 Buy
100-DMA   1.1884 Buy
200-DMA   1.1533 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3540/GBP, high of US$1.3702/GBP and settled the day down by 0.597% to close at US$1.3563/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3590-1.3900 with targets at 1.3540-1.3470 and 1.3400-1.3340-1.3240 stop-loss should be 1.3900. Buy above 1.3540-1.3240 with targets 1.3670-1.3710-1.3800 and 1.3860-1.3900 with stop loss closing below 1.3200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3540
S2     1.3470
S3     1.3400-1.3340

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3590-1.3670
R2     1.3710
R3     1.3800-1.3860

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.783

Buy
20-DMA   1.3461 Sell
50-DMA   1.3305 Buy
100-DMA   1.3158 Buy
200-DMA   1.2849 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.009 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY102.70/USD and made an intraday high of JPY103.31/USD and settled the day up by 0.0232% at JPY103.11/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 103.10-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 102.50-102.05 and 101.60-101.20. Long positions above 102.50-101.00 with targets of 103.20-103.80-104.50 and 105.00-105.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     102.50
S2     102.05
S3     101.60-101.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     103.15-103.80
R2     104.50
R3     105.00-105.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.604 Buy
20-DMA   103.60 Sell
50-DMA   104.07 Sell
100-DMA   14.083 Sell
200-DMA   106.02 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   27.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.290 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING