AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, after seeing small gains earlier in the session amid ever-rising numbers of global COVID-19 cases and doubts over both the size and speed of further U.S. stimulus measures. Investors were also cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, due to open later in the day. The previous session saw a rally in bonds and a breather in U.S. shares as a more cautious mood overtook the market. The move saw the index sit roughly in the middle of a range seen during the past two weeks. Democrat wins in the Georgia Senate runoff election at the beginning of the month gave the party control of Congress. Although the victories raised investor hopes that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposed by President Joe Biden earlier in the month could have a smoother path towards being passed, all-too familiar disagreements with Republican lawmakers are already proving to be obstacles and soured risk appetite. Positioning data revealed that bets on a continuously falling dollar, with the greenback extending a downward trend that began in March 2020, saw highs not seen in almost ten years. Meanwhile, the U.S. is due to release a slew of economic data throughout the week, including the fourth quarter GDP. The data is expected to show that the country’s economic recovery has weakened as it continues to fight surging numbers of COVID-19 cases. The Fed, in turn, is expected to maintain the current easy policy when it hands down its policy decision on Wednesday.
  • The U.S. dollar steadied on Tuesday as rising coronavirus cases and doubts over the speed and size of U.S. stimulus tempered financial markets' upbeat mood, while investors were also cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's review later in the week. In overnight trading, bonds rallied, hard-running U.S. equity markets cooled and the cautious move into safer assets lifted the dollar index a little bit to 90.353, which is roughly in the middle of a range it has kept for the past two weeks. The euro and yen are likewise hemmed in, with the euro unable to break resistance around $1.2190 while the continent grapples with new COVID-19 infections and fresh lockdowns. The common currency slipped slightly overnight to $1.2142 and held there in early Asia trade. The yen was steady at 103.76 per dollar, while the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars softened marginally. Investors had thought that Democrats' control of U.S. Congress, won at Senate runoff elections in early January, could smooth the passage of enormous pandemic relief spending. Bets the U.S. dollar keeps falling, to extend a downtrend which began last March, hit an almost decade high last week, positioning data shows. However risk appetite has waned in the meantime as familiar disagreements have emerged to so far delay passage of President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion. At the same time, coronavirus cases are surging and U.S. economic data has pointed to a flagging pace in the recovery, leaving investors looking for the Fed to maintain easy policy at its Wednesday meeting, while bracing for lacklustre growth figures on Thursday.
  • Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, amid concerns over the timing and size of U.S. stimulus measures. Republican lawmakers have voiced objections to the expensive price tag for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden earlier in the month. They have counter proposed a smaller plan targeting COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also threw the proposal’s timing into question, saying that a comprehensive deal could be four to six weeks away. However, he added that some COVID-19 relief measures could be passed before former President Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial begins in early February. The House of Representatives on Monday delivered to the Senate a charge accusing Trump with inciting insurrection in a speech to his supporters before an attack on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6. Although Biden is willing to negotiate with Republicans on the package, Democrat control of Congress could mean that a Democrat-only route cold be taken. Meanwhile, the Senate has voted 84-15 to confirm Janet Yellen as the first female Secretary of the Treasury. Yellen is now expected to move quickly on COVID-19 relief, review U.S. sanctions policy and strengthen financial regulation. Investors are also focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which opens later today with a policy decision to be handed down on Wednesday.
  • Oil prices fell on Tuesday as fading hopes for a rapid approval of new U.S. economic stimulus and mounting new coronavirus cases raised questions over the pace of any recovery in demand. Having recently hit 11-month highs, oil is caught between lingering doubts over any recovery in demand as the pandemic continues to rage, offset by optimism for more stimulus from the newly installed Biden administration in the United States to support economic growth as vaccines are rolled out. But Biden administration officials are still trying to convince Republican lawmakers of the need for more stimulus, raising questions over when it will be approved. Even as the pace of new infections falls in the United States, European nations have set tough restrictions to combat the spread of the virus, while China is reporting rising new COVID-19 cases, casting a pall over demand prospects in the world's largest energy consumer. Still, there are areas where demand for oil remains strong. In India, crude oil imports in December rose to their highest in more than two years as the easing of coronavirus restrictions boosted economic activity. On the supply side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies' compliance with pledged oil output curbs is averaging 85% in January, tanker tracker Petro-Logistics said on Monday. The findings suggest the group has improved compliance supply curb commitments. Also, output from the giant Tengiz field in Kazakhstan was disrupted by a power cut on Jan. 17. The bank cited the risk of higher supply if sanctions on Iranian crude are lifted, or U.S. drillers boost output from shale, against a bigger demand shock from the latest wave of lockdowns and restrictions.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th January 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,858-1,867 1,878 1,887-1,900
Silver-XAG 25.60-26.05 26.50 27.00-27.65
Crude Oil 52.50-53.00 53.60 54.00-54.60
EURO/USD 1.2150-1.2190 1.2250 1.2300-1.2355
GBP/USD 1.3710-1.3800 1.3860 1.3910-1.3990
USD/JPY 104.00-104.50 105.00 105.40-106.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th January 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,845-1,835 1,828 1,817-1,800
Silver-XAG 25.05 24.45 25.60-26.05
Crude Oil 51.90-51.10 50.50 49.80-47.70
EURO/USD 1.2090-1.2050 1.1960 1.1925-1.1890
GBP/USD 1.3600-1.3540 1.3470 1.3410-1.3350
USD/JPY 103.50-103.15 102.50 102.05-101.60

Intra-Day Strategy (26th January 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1867.84/oz and low of US$1847.04/oz. Gold up 0.063% at US$1855.12/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1899) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1845-1800 with risk below 1800, targeting 1854-1867-1878 and 1890-1900-1910. Sell below 1854-1910 keeping stop loss closing above 1910, targeting 1845-1835 and 1828-1817-1810.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,845-1,835
S2     1,828
S3     1,817-1,800
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,858-1,867
R2     1,878
R3     1,887-1,900

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.752

Buy
20-DMA   1874.75 Sell
50-DMA  

1858.79

Buy
100-DMA   1884.01 Sell
200-DMA   1844.58 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   7.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$25.75/oz and low of US$25.15/oz settled down by 0.518% at US$25.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 50DMA (24.30), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.05-28.00 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 25.05-24.45-24.00 and 23.60-23.20. Buy silver in between 25.60-23.20, targeting 25.60-26.05-26.50 and 27.00-27.65-28.00 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.05
S2     24.45
S3     25.60-26.05

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.60-26.05
R2     26.50
R3     27.00-27.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.957 Buy
20-DMA   25.42 Sell
50-DMA   24.56 Sell
100-DMA   25.06 Sell
200-DMA   21.68 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   77.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.7277 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US52.88/bbl, intraday low of US$51.76/bbl and settled down by 1.421% to close at US$52.79/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 51.90-48.50 with risk daily closing below 48.50 and targeting 52.50-53.60-54.00 and 54.60 55.00-55.70. Sell in between 52.60-55.70 with stop loss at 55.70; targeting 51.90-51.20 and 50.25-49.30-48.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     51.90-51.10
S2     50.50
S3     49.80-47.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.50-53.00
R2     53.60
R3     54.00-54.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.2031 Sell
20-DMA   48.67 Buy
50-DMA   44.96 Buy
100-DMA   42.54 Buy
200-DMA   38.45 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.697 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.2115/EUR, high of US$1.2182/EUR and settled the day up by 0.219% to close at US$1.2138/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2177), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1970. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.2090-1.1840 with risk below 1.1800, targeting 1.1250-1.1290-1.2300 and 1.2350-1.2400-1.2475. Sell below 1.2150-1.2545 targeting 1.2050-1.1990-1.1960 and 1.1925-1.1870 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2545.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2090-1.2050
S2     1.1960
S3     1.1925-1.1890

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2150-1.2190
R2     1.2250
R3     1.2300-1.2355

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.2226 Buy
50-DMA   1.2051 Buy
100-DMA   1.1916 Buy
200-DMA   1.1584 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   27.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3647/GBP, high of US$1.3722/GBP and settled the day down by 0.001% to close at US$1.3674/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3710-1.3900 with targets at 1.3650-1.3590 and 1.3540-1.3470-1.3400 stop-loss should be 1.3900. Buy above 1.3650-1.3240 with targets 1.3710-1.3800-1.3860 and 1.3910-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3600-1.3540
S2     1.3470
S3     1.3410-1.3350

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3710-1.3800
R2     1.3860
R3     1.3910-1.3990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.783

Buy
20-DMA   1.3616 Buy
50-DMA   1.3471 Buy
100-DMA   1.3218 Buy
200-DMA   1.2940 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   50.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0067 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY103.66/USD and made an intraday high of JPY103.66/USD and settled the day down by 0.036% at JPY103.75/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 103.80-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 103.10-102.50-102.05 and 101.60-101.20. Long positions above 103.10-101.00 with targets of 103.80-104.50 and 105.00-105.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     103.50-103.15
S2     102.50
S3     102.05-101.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     104.00-104.50
R2     105.00
R3     105.40-106.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.604 Buy
20-DMA   103.57 Sell
50-DMA   103.88 Sell
100-DMA   104.57 Sell
200-DMA   105.57 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   28.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.290 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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