Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, hovering near its lowest level in a week as doubts began to creep in about a recent rally fueled by hopes of a faster U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19 than elsewhere. The dollar index has hovered near the 91 mark after Friday’s disappointing U.S. jobs report, knocked the wind out of a two-week rally that saw the index climb up to 91.6. A faster vaccine rollout in the U.S. comparative to other areas, as well as moves to fast-track the $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposed by President Joe Biden, also saw investors turn to the greenback. However, there are worries that huge fiscal spending, alongside the continuous ultra-easy Federal Reserve monetary policy, could see the dollar decline in the long term. Europe’s “lagging” vaccination program will cap the euro in the short term, but the continent should catch up by the summer, after which the single currency could rally to $1.28 for the first time since 2014, the note added. The euro was little changed in early Asian trading on Tuesday but was up from the two-month low touched on Friday.
• Britain called on Monday for a reset in relations with the European Union and a refinement of a Brexit deal covering trade with Northern Ireland, saying trust was eroded when Brussels attempted to restrict COVID-19 vaccine supplies Relations between Brussels and London strained by years of bruising Brexit talks took a turn for the worse last month when the EU threatened to use emergency measures to stop coronavirus vaccines going from the bloc into Northern Ireland. To avoid creating a hard border on the island of Ireland, Northern Ireland remained within the EU's single market for goods under the Brexit deal, effectively creating a frontier within the United Kingdom. The EU swiftly changed its position on the vaccines but London hopes to capitalise on the gaffe to win changes to the Brexit deal because the new rules have caused disruption in Britain's trade with Northern Ireland. Striking at the heart of the EU's project, Gove scolded the bloc for putting its members above the people of Northern Ireland by raising the prospect of checks on vaccines at the border - something Brussels has long said it wanted to avoid. The EU's swift U-turn has emboldened British ministers, and last week Gove sent a letter to European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic demanding some changes to the so-called Northern Ireland protocol of the Brexit deal. He demanded grace periods for the transport of food from Britain to Northern Ireland be extended from a few months to at last two years. Some Northern Irish politicians have called for the protocol to be scrapped saying it has caused shortages in supermarkets and impeded the delivery of other goods. The European Commission, the EU executive, declined to comment directly on Gove's remarks, but a spokeswoman said last December's Brexit deal would not be re-opened. The EU and Britain have agreed to work intensively to resolve the difficulties and Gove is expected to meet Sefcovic on Thursday to try to find a way forward. Politicians have been keen to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, fearing it could be detrimental to the 1998 peace agreement that ended three decades of conflict in the province.
• Oil was up Tuesday morning in Asia, and were at their highest level since January 2020, boosted by major producers cutting supplies and increasing hopes for fuel demand recovery Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, has implemented additional supply cuts in February and March on top of those implemented by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+). These are reducing supplies and helping to balance the global markets. Also boosting investor hopes are the continuous global rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and data suggesting that the virus has peaked in countries such as the U.S. The dollar was also down on Wednesday. He warned, however, that both Brent and WTI futures are in overbought territory on technical charts. Investors also await U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day. Oil prices edged up to their highest in 13 months on Tuesday as supply cuts by major producers and optimism over fuel demand recovery support energy markets. Both Brent and WTI are at their highest since January 2020. Front-month prices for both contracts are up for the seventh session on Tuesday, the longest win streak since January 2019. Additional supply reductions by top exporter Saudi Arabia in February and March, on top of cuts by producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, are tightening supplies and balancing global markets. Investors are also pinning hopes on oil demand recovery when COVID-19 vaccines take effect. A weak dollar has also helped shored up prices of commodities. He cautioned, however, that both Brent and WTI are in overbought territory on technical charts. Investors are looking ahead to the U.S. weekly oil inventories data due later in the week. U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles likely rose last week, while distillate stocks were seen down, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1839.04/oz and low of US$1807.7/oz. Gold up 1.128% at US$1829.79/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1899) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1828-1764 with risk below 1764, targeting 1839-1849-1867 and 1870-1878. Sell below 1817-1862 keeping stop loss closing above 1862, targeting 1800-1791-1783 and 1775-1764.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$27.56/oz and low of US$26.83/oz settled up by 0.813% at US$27.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 50DMA (24.30), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 27.00-31.00 with stop loss above 31.00; targeting 28.30-27.65-27.00 and 26.50-25.05-24.45. Buy silver in between 28.20-26.00, targeting 28.90-29.50-29.90 and 30.50-31.00 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US56.14/bbl, intraday low of US$56.32/bbl and settled up by 1.134% to close at US$56.89/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 57.00-51.30 with risk daily closing below 51.30 and targeting 57.50-58.00-58.80 and 59.50-60.10. Sell in between 57.50-59.00 with stop loss at 60.20; targeting 57.00-55.90-54.60-54.00 and 53.60-53.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.2019/EUR, high of US$1.2065/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0947% to close at US$1.2048/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2177), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1970. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.2020-1.1840 with risk below 1.1800, targeting 1.2090-1.2150-1.2190 and 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400. Sell below 1.2090-1.2545 targeting 1.2050-1.1990-1.1960 and 1.1925-1.1870 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2545.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3674/GBP, high of US$1.3728/GBP and settled the day up by 0.166% to close at US$1.3738/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3800-1.3990 with targets at 1.3710-1.3600-1.3540 and 1.3470-1.3400 stop-loss should be 1.4000. Buy above 1.3710-1.3240 with targets 1.3800-1.3860 and 1.3910-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3200.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY105.14/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.66/USD and settled the day down by 0.110% at JPY105.20/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.60-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 105.00-104.50-104.00 and 103.10-102.50-102.05. Long positions above 105.60-101.00 with targets of 103.80-104.50 and 105.00-105.40 with stop below 105.00.