AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar paused on Friday after its biggest loss in 10 days as disappointing U.S. labour market data bruised optimism for a speedy recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The greenback continued to buck its traditional role as a safe-harbour currency, falling in sympathy with U.S. stocks overnight after an unexpected increase in weekly jobless claims soured the economic outlook. The British pound traded near an almost three-year high reached overnight, when it surged the most in more than a month, amid Britain's aggressive vaccination programme. The dollar index was little changed at 90.561 in the Asian session, after a 0.4% decline overnight cut short a two-day winning streak. For the week, the gauge is now back to more or less break-even. The string of soft labour data is weighing on the dollar even as other indicators have shown resilience, and as President Joe Biden's pandemic relief efforts take shape, including a proposed $1.9 trillion spending package Sterling was mostly flat at $1.3965 on Friday following a 0.8% jump in the previous session, when it rose as high as $1.3986 for the first time since April 2018. The euro was little changed at $1.2093 after rising 0.4% overnight. Many analyst expect the dollar to weaken over the course of the year as it has traditionally done during times of global economic recovery, though it might take some time to develop. The trade should reignite once fiscal stimulus starts to kick in and services start to reopen in a more fulsome way, he said.
  • The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, clawing back some losses. The U.S. currency saw its biggest losses in ten days after disappointing U.S. labor data finally dented recent optimism for the country’s quick economic recovery from COVID-19. The pound was mostly flat after climbing to an almost three-year high during the previous session, the highest gains in more than a month, as the U.K. continues to roll out an ambitious COVID-19 vaccination program. Elsewhere in Europe, the euro was also flat after gaining 0.4% overnight. The greenback is slowly returning to its safe-haven asset role, but sentiment was soured by the unexpected rise in the number of U.S. jobless claims. A total of 861,000 claims were filed during the previous week, against the 765,000 claims in forecasts prepared by Investing.com and the 848,000 claims filed during the previous week. The disappointing data is impacting the dollar, however, even as progress is made on a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposed by President Joe Biden and other economic indicators are more positive Cryptocurrencies took a little breather, with bitcoin near the $51,500 mark after reaching a record $52,604 in a rally driven by endorsements from Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) among others. It has risen around 71% in 2021 to date, after it more than quadrupled in 2020.
  • Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, hitting its lowest level in nearly three months and its worst week since late November 2020, with strengthening U.S. Treasury yields putting a dent in the non-yielding yellow metal’s appeal. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields continued an upward trend, after hitting a near one-year peak earlier in the week. The dollar also looked set to end the week with gains, inching up on Friday. Investors continued to digest an unexpected rise in U.S. jobless claims over the past week, a potential harbinger of a second consecutive month of languid job growth which overshadowed the recent decline in new COVID-19 cases. However, the number of global COVID-19 cases topped the 110 million mark as of Feb. 19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Meanwhile, Swiss customs data released on Thursday said that monthly gold exports to India were at their highest since May 2019, although exports to China and Hong Kong remained at record lows. Other precious metals also saw losses on Friday. Silver eased 0.6%, after falling over 1.8%, its worst level since mid-January 2021, in the week to date. Platinum slipped 0.7%, while headed towards its third consecutive weekly gain, and palladium dropped 0.3%.
  • Oil was down Friday morning in Asia, continuing Thursday’s losses over growing worries that refineries shut by the cold snap in Texas and surrounding areas will take time to reopen, in turn denting crude oil demand. Brent oil futures slid 1.64% to $62.88 by 11 PM ET (4 AM GMT) and WTI futures slid 1.90% to $59.37, falling just below the $60 mark. Both Brent and WTI contracts climbed to 13-month highs on Thursday, boosted by the unprecedented cold snap. With as much as one-third of U.S. production reported to be shut down, the focus is shifting to the impact on producers. ANZ Research said in a note The lack of demand from refineries will likely lead to builds in crude stocks over coming weeks, even though around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of U.S. oil output has been shut, the note added. Some U.S. refineries could bring forward maintenance work normally scheduled for the spring, ahead of the summer driving season, Citi analysts said in their own note. “Refinery outages could be deeper and longer lasting, especially ahead of the spring maintenance season, as some plants could decide to anticipate planned turnarounds of roughly 500-k b/d on aggregate over the next month,” the Citi note added. U.S. crude oil supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a draw of 7.258 million barrels in the week to Feb. 12. This was larger than the 2.429-million-barrel draw in forecasts prepared by Investing.com and the 6.644-million-barrel draw recorded for the previous week. Data from the American Petroleum Institute released a day earlier showed a draw of 5.8 million barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th February 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,776-1,787 1,800 1,819-1,828
Silver-XAG 27.25-27.65 28.20 28.90-29.50
Crude Oil 60.10-60.60 61.50 62.00-62.90
EURO/USD 1.2150-1.2190 1.2250 1.2300-1.2340
GBP/USD 1.3990 1.4040 1.4100-1.4140
USD/JPY 107.50 107.50 108.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th February 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,764-1,747 1,730 1,720-1,707
Silver-XAG 26.50 26.05 25.30-24.40
Crude Oil 59.50-58.80 58.00 57.50-56.65
EURO/USD 1.2050-1.2020 1.1960 1.1925-1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3940-1.3860 1.3800 1.3710-1.3600
USD/JPY 105.60--105.00 104.50 103.90-103.50

Intra-Day Strategy (19th February 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1789.55/oz and low of US$1768.30.98/oz. Gold down 0.0320% at US$1775.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 50DMA (1899) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1764-1707 with risk below 1700, targeting 1776-1787-18090 and 1819-1828-1849. Sell below 1776-1819 keeping stop loss closing above 1819, targeting 1764-1747-1730 and 1720-1707.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,764-1,747
S2     1,730
S3     1,720-1,707
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,776-1,787
R2     1,800
R3     1,819-1,828

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

33.752

Buy
20-DMA   1823.70 Sell
50-DMA  

1850.89

Sell
100-DMA   1864.05 Sell
200-DMA   1857.16 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   14.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -19.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$27.51/oz and low of US$26.85/oz settled down by 1.080% at US$27.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 50DMA (24.30), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 27.00-31.00 with stop loss above 31.00; targeting 26.50 and 25.90-25.05-24.45. Buy silver in between 26.70-24.60, targeting 27.65-28.20-28.90 and 29.50-29.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     26.50
S2     26.05
S3     25.30-24.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     27.25-27.65
R2     28.20
R3     28.90-29.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.085 Buy
20-DMA   26.84 Buy
50-DMA   26.11 Buy
100-DMA   25.11 Buy
200-DMA   23.55 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   52.468 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.442 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US62.22/bbl, intraday low of US$59.76/bbl and settled down by 2.250% to close at US$60.20/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.50-58.80
S2     58.00
S3     57.50-56.65

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.10-60.60
R2     61.50
R3     62.00-62.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.168 Sell
20-DMA   56.64 Buy
50-DMA   52.52 Buy
100-DMA   45.13 Buy
200-DMA   43.10 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   97.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.370 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.2034/EUR, high of US$1.2093/EUR and settled the day up by 0.448% to close at US$1.2088/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2177), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1970. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.2050-1.1840 with risk below 1.1800, targeting 1.2150-1.2190 and 1.2300-1.2350-1.2400. Sell below 1.2150-1.2545 targeting 1.2090-1.2020-1.1960 and 1.1925-1.1870 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2545.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2050-1.2020
S2     1.1960
S3     1.1925-1.1850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2150-1.2190
R2     1.2250
R3     1.2300-1.2340

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.2098 Buy
50-DMA   1.2151 Buy
100-DMA   1.1967 Buy
200-DMA   1.1673 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3838/GBP, high of US$1.3985/GBP and settled the day up by 0.889% to close at US$1.3970/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3990-1.4140 with targets at 1.3940-1.3860-1.3800 and 1.3710-1.3600-1.3540 stop-loss should be 1.4140. Buy above 1.3860-1.3470 with targets 1.3990-1.4040 and 1.4100-1.4140 with stop loss closing below 1.3200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3940-1.3860
S2     1.3800
S3     1.3710-1.3600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3990
R2     1.4040
R3     1.4100-1.4140

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

68.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3776 Buy
50-DMA   1.3653 Buy
100-DMA   1.3384 Buy
200-DMA   1.3034 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   76.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 105.60--105.00 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY105.59/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.91/USD and settled the day down by 0.178% at JPY105.67/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.10-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 105.60-105.00-104.50 and 104.00-103.10-102.50. Long positions above 105.60-101.00 with targets of 103.80-104.50 and 105.00-105.40 with stop below 101.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.60--105.00
S2     104.50
S3     103.90-103.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50
R2     107.50
R3     108.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.407 Buy
20-DMA   103.66 Sell
50-DMA   103.80 Sell
100-DMA   104.45 Sell
200-DMA   105.66 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   79.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0750 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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