AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar hit multi-month highs against the euro and the yen on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did not express concern about a recent sell-off in bonds while sticking to his stance to keep interest rates low for a long time. He also reiterated a commitment to maintain ultra-easy monetary policy until the economy is "very far along the road to recovery." The euro slipped 0.2% to a three-month low of $1.19515 following a 0.7% slump overnight. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso declined to comment on the yen's decline when asked about how the depreciation would affect the economy Impending U.S. fiscal stimulus is adding fuel to expectations of higher inflation, as the accelerating roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines boosts confidence in an economic recovery.
  • The dollar gained in early European trading Friday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell largely dismissed concerns over rising Treasury yields. A total of 158.5 million households would receive direct payments under the Senate version of a $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill, the White House said on Thursday. This impending U.S. fiscal stimulus is adding fuel to expectations of higher inflation, thus higher Treasury yields, as the economy recovers. A key gauge of the recovery of the labor market is due later in the session, with the official February employment report due at 08:30 AM ET (1330 GMT). An addition of 182,000 payrolls is expected, up from just 49,000 last month, but Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls and Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims data showed only modest improvement.
  • The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, hovering near three-month highs after U.S. Federal Chairman Jerome Powell stuck firmly to a dovish line even as bond market volatility increased. The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.06% to 6.4730. China set a conservative economic growth target of above 6%, below economists’ forecasts, for 2021 as the National People’s Congress opened earlier in the day. China’s leadership also outlined fiscal support for China’s economic recovery from COVID-19. The greenback soared the most in a month after Powell’s comments at the Wall Street Journal jobs summit on Thursday. He said the sell-off in Treasuries during the past week was “notable and caught my attention” but was not “disorderly” or likely to push long-term rates so high as to warrant a more forceful Fed intervention. Instead, Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to maintaining its ultra-easy monetary policy until the economy is “very far along the road to recovery.” The comments re-ignited a selloff in Treasuries, causing the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield to climb back above 1.5%, rising as high as 1.5830% in Asia. The climb came after the yield soared to a three-month height of 1.614% during the previous week. Riskier currencies including the Australian and New Zealand dollars, were down along with global stocks as investor sentiment soured again The safe-haven dollar has been supported by higher Treasury yields and the increased risk aversion brought about by the bond rout. Meanwhile, investors looked to progress on the latest U.S. stimulus measures. The U.S. Senate voted on Thursday to take up President Joe Biden’s $19 trillion stimulus package bill and is widely expected to approve it when debate concludes over the weekend. Also adding to worries of higher inflation is the continuous global rollout of COIVD-19 vaccines, in turn, heightening hopes for a quick global economic recovery from COVID-19. Commodity-linked currencies, such as the AUD and NZD, have been hurt by the souring mood even as some investors expect them to gain as economies re-open after COVID-19.
  • Oil prices jumped more than $1 a barrel on Friday, hitting their highest levels in nearly 14 months, after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. Both contracts surged more than 4% on Thursday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, extended oil output curbs into April, granting small exemptions to Russia and Kazakhstan Investors were surprised that Saudi Arabia had decided to maintain its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day through April even after oil prices rallied over the past two months The OPEC+ decision to continue with the output cuts would hurt consumers in oil buying nations, Indian oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan told Reuters on Friday. Analysts are reviewing their price forecasts to reflect the continued supply restraint by OPEC+ as well as U.S. shale producers, who are holding back spending in order to boost returns to investors Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its Brent price forecast by $5 to $75 per barrel in the second quarter and $80 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, while UBS raised its forecast for Brent to $75 per barrel and for WTI to $72 per barrel in the second half of 2021.
  • Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, staying near a nine-month low and headed for a third consecutive weekly decline. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell disappointed investors with his views on the Treasury yields pushing both the dollar and bond yields up. Powell repeated his pledge to keep credit loose in a speech to the Wall Street Journal jobs summit on Thursday and added that although the rise in yields was “notable”, he did not consider it a “disorderly” move. On the data front, 745,000 U.S. initial jobless were filed over the past week, lower than the 750,000 claims in forecasts prepared by Investing.com but up from the 736,000 claims filed during the previous week. February’s U.S. employment report, including non-farm payrolls, is due later in the day. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council said that the amount of gold held by exchange-traded funds fell by 84.7 tons worth $4.6 billion in February, and CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) decreased margins for COMEX 100 Gold Futures contracts by 9.1%. In other precious metals, silver rose 0.2% but was down 5% for the week so far, its worst level since late-November 2020. Palladium climbed 0.2%, while platinum shed 1.2%.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th March 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,715-1,730 1,747 1,764-1,776
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.50 27.25 27.65-28.20
Crude Oil 65.00-65.40 66.00 66.70-67.50
EURO/USD 1.2015-1.2090 1.2150 1.2190-1.2250
GBP/USD 1.3865-1.3900 1.3950 1.3990-1.4040
USD/JPY 108.50-109.00 109.90 110.50-111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th March 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,700 1,684 1,675-1,650
Silver-XAG 25.30-24.90 24.05 23.60-23.00
Crude Oil 64.50-63.50 62.90 62.00-61.25
EURO/USD 1.1960 1.1925-1.1890 1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3800-1.3747 1.3700 1.3650-1.3565
USD/JPY 108.00-106.90 107.50 106.10-105.60

Intra-Day Strategy (5th March 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1723.09/oz and low of US$1690.42/oz. Gold down 0.800% at US$1696.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1700-1664 with risk below 1664, targeting 1715-1730-1747 and 1764-1776-1787. Sell below 1715-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1700-1684-1675 and 1675-1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,700
S2     1,684
S3     1,675-1,650
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,715-1,730
R2     1,747
R3     1,764-1,776

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

27.752

Buy
20-DMA   1779.87 Sell
50-DMA  

1829.00

Sell
100-DMA   1848.88 Sell
200-DMA   1858.18 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -34.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$26.29/oz and low of US$25.04/oz settled down by 2.624% at US$25.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 50DMA (24.30), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.05-29.50 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 25.05-24.90-24.45 and 24.00-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 25.30-23.60, targeting 26.05-26.50-27.25 and 28.20-28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.30-24.90
S2     24.05
S3     23.60-23.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.50
R2     27.25
R3     27.65-28.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.085 Buy
20-DMA   26.99 Buy
50-DMA   26.47 Buy
100-DMA   25.38 Buy
200-DMA   24.04 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.468 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US64.69/bbl, intraday low of US$60.40/bbl and settled up by 4.75% to close at US$63.86/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 61.20-59.50 with risk daily closing below 59.50 and targeting 62.00-62.90-63.50 and 64.50-65.40-66.00. Sell in between 62.00-65.40 with stop loss at 65.40; targeting 61.40-60.60 and 60.10-59.50-59.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.50-63.50
S2     62.90
S3     62.00-61.25

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     65.00-65.40
R2     66.00
R3     66.70-67.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.168 Sell
20-DMA   60.64 Buy
50-DMA   55.41 Buy
100-DMA   49.11 Buy
200-DMA   44.58 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   2.528 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1961/EUR, high of US$1.2112/EUR and settled the day down by 0.219% to close at US$1.1968/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2177), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1970. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.960-1.1825 with risk below 1.1825, targeting 1.2015-1.2090-1.2150 and 1.2190-1.2300-1.2350. Sell below 1.2010-1.2340 targeting 1.1960 and 1.1925-1.1870-1.1800 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2340.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1960
S2     1.1925-1.1890
S3     1.1800

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2015-1.2090
R2     1.2150
R3     1.2190-1.2250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.2092 Sell
50-DMA   1.2150 Sell
100-DMA   1.2016 Buy
200-DMA   1.1782 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   46.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3879/GBP, high of US$1.4016/GBP and settled the day down by 0.412% to close at US$1.3893/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3865-1.4200 with targets at 1.3800-1.3745 and 1.3700-1.3650-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.4200. Buy above 1.3800-1.3570 with targets 1.3865-1.3940-1.3990-1.4040 and 1.4100-1.4200 with stop loss closing below 1.3570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3800-1.3747
S2     1.3700
S3     1.3650-1.3565

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3865-1.3900
R2     1.3950
R3     1.3990-1.4040

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

76.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3839 Buy
50-DMA   1.3685 Buy
100-DMA   1.3420 Buy
200-DMA   1.3096 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY106.66/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.98/USD and settled the day up by 0.974% at JPY107.92/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-109.90 with risk above 109.90 targeting 106.90-106.10-105.60 and 105.00-104.50-104.00. Long positions above 106.90-105.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50-108.00 and 108.50-109.00 with stop below 103.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00-106.90
S2     107.50
S3     106.10-105.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50-109.00
R2     109.90
R3     110.50-111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.407 Buy
20-DMA   103.66 Sell
50-DMA   103.80 Sell
100-DMA   104.45 Sell
200-DMA   105.66 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   79.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0750 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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