AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, but fell against the currencies of major commodity exporters, as investors increased bets on countries that stand to benefit from rising prices for oil, metals, and other goods. The dollar index was not far from a three-month high reached on Friday, after data showed the U.S. economy created more than twice as many jobs as expected in February. Non-farm payrolls for February were at 379,000, above the 182,000 in forecasts prepared by Investing.com and January’s 166,000 reading. Positive economic data and progress in passing a $1.9 trillion stimulus package through the U.S. Congress boosted sentiment for the dollar, but that the U.S. currency could struggle against commodity currencies as expectations for a rebound in global trade continue to rise. Rising Treasury yields saw the dollar fall against the pound and the euro but maintain multi-month highs against the yen and the Swiss franc. Surging oil prices, with Brent oil futures rising above the $70 mark for the first time in more than a year, pulled investors towards currencies of oil exporters and triggered bids for commodity currencies as the Asian session opened. Investors also cut their net short dollar positions in the latest week to $27.80 billion, which is the smallest short position since Dec. 15, 2020 and an indication that dollar bears are giving up on betting against the greenback.
  • The dollar fell against the currencies of major commodity exporters on Monday as investors increased bets on countries that will benefit from rising prices for oil, metals, and other goods. The dollar also fell slightly against the British pound and the euro, but held at multi-month highs against the yen and the Swiss franc because of rising Treasury yields. Analysts said that sentiment for the dollar has improved because of positive economic data and progress in passing a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, but that the greenback would continue to struggle against commodity currencies amid strong expectations for a rebound in global trade. Some traders said a jump in Brent crude futures above $70 a barrel for the first time in more than a year triggered a flurry of bids for commodity currencies at the start of Asian trading. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood at 91.895, not far from a three-month high reached on Friday after data showed the U.S. economy created more than twice as many jobs as expected in February. Speculators cut their net short dollar positions in the latest week to $27.80 billion, which is the smallest short position since Dec. 15 and suggests that dollar bears are giving up on betting against the greenback. The dollar is set for a second weekly gain after rallying on Friday, on strong labor market data, but economists suggest the greenback's resurgence will be limited as low inflation will persist. The U.S. economy created 379,000 jobs last month, well above economists' consensus forecast of 182,000, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.2% from 6.3%, underpinned by easing Covid-19 restrictions and a ramp-up in vaccine distribution. But a rapidly improving labor market, however, doesn't necessarily translate into stronger inflation, which will likely keep the Fed on pause, stifling the dollar's momentum. Commerzbank's remarks echoed that of the Fed chairman Jerome Powell who downplayed the risk of a sustained uptick in inflation, and reiterated that current monetary policy measures are appropriate.
  • on Friday morning in Asia, staying near a nine-month low and headed for a third consecutive weekly decline. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell disappointed investors with his views on the Treasury yields pushing both the dollar and bond yields up. Powell repeated his pledge to keep credit loose in a speech to the Wall Street Journal jobs summit on Thursday and added that although the rise in yields was “notable”, he did not consider it a “disorderly” move. On the data front, 745,000 U.S. initial jobless were filed over the past week, lower than the 750,000 claims in forecasts prepared by Investing.com but up from the 736,000 claims filed during the previous week. February’s U.S. employment report, including non-farm payrolls, is due later in the day. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council said that the amount of gold held by exchange-traded funds fell by 84.7 tons worth $4.6 billion in February, and CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) decreased margins for COMEX 100 Gold Futures contracts by 9.1%. In other precious metals, silver rose 0.2% but was down 5% for the week so far, its worst level since late-November 2020. Palladium climbed 0.2%, while platinum shed 1.2%.
  • Oil surged above $70 a barrel in early Asian trading after Saudi Arabia said an energy facility was attacked, with prices extending gains after OPEC+ last week said it would keep production steady. The kingdom said a storage tank in the Ras Tanura export terminal in the country’s Gulf coast was attacked on Sunday by a drone from the sea. Output appeared to be unaffected after the barrage of missiles and drones were intercepted. Oil climbed last week after Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ made a surprise pledge to maintain output steady in April, accelerating a rally this year that has seen prices surge more than 35%. The move prompted a raft of investment banks to raise their price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). estimating global benchmark Brent will top $80 a barrel in the third quarter. The attacks are the most serious against the Saudi oil installations since a key processing facility and two oil fields came under fire in September 2019, cutting oil production for several days and exposing the vulnerability of the Saudi petroleum industry. That assault was claimed by the Houthi rebels, although Riyadh pointed the finger at Iran. Gold was up on Monday morning in Asia, bouncing back from the nine-month low hit during the previous session over a softer dollar. The U.S. Senate’s passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package also boosted the bullion's appeal as a hedge against inflation. The stimulus package, passed on Saturday, includes $400 billion in one-time payments of $1,400 to many Americans The dollar was up but fell against the currencies of major commodity exporters over increased investor bets on countries that stand benefit from rising prices for oil, metals, and other goods. The improved sentiment from the passing of the stimulus package in the U.S. and a dip in the dollar is helping gold prices, DailyFX strategist Margaret Yang told Reuters.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th March 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,715-1,730 1,747 1,764-1,776
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.50 27.25 27.65-28.20
Crude Oil 66.70-67.50 68.00 70.00
EURO/USD 1.1960-1.2015 1.2090 1.2150-1.2190
GBP/USD 1.3865-1.3900 1.3950 1.3990-1.4040
USD/JPY 109.90 109.90 110.50-111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th March 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,700 1,684 1,715-1,730
Silver-XAG 24.90 24.05 23.60-23.00
Crude Oil 66.00-65.40 64.50 63.50-62.90
EURO/USD 1.1925-1.1890 1.1810 1760-1.1705
GBP/USD 1.3800-1.3747 1.3700 1.3650-1.3565
USD/JPY 107.50 107.50 106.10-105.60

Intra-Day Strategy (8th March 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1707.58/oz and low of US$1687.20/oz. Gold down 0.198% at US$1699.79/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1700-1664 with risk below 1664, targeting 1715-1730-1747 and 1764-1776-1787. Sell below 1715-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1700-1684-1675 and 1675-1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,700
S2     1,684
S3     1,715-1,730
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,715-1,730
R2     1,747
R3     1,764-1,776

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

27.752

Buy
20-DMA   1779.87 Sell
50-DMA  

1829.00

Sell
100-DMA   1848.88 Sell
200-DMA   1858.18 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -34.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$25.45/oz and low of US$24.81/oz settled down by 0.499% at US$25.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.05-29.50 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 25.05-24.45 and 24.00-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 25.05-23.60, targeting 26.05-26.50-27.25 and 28.20-28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.90
S2     24.05
S3     23.60-23.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.50
R2     27.25
R3     27.65-28.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.922 Buy
20-DMA   26.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.47 Sell
100-DMA   25.38 Sell
200-DMA   24.04 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.468 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US64.26/bbl, intraday low of US$63.64/bbl and settled up by 3.45% to close at US$66.12/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 66.00-62.50 with risk daily closing below 62.50 and targeting 66.70-67.50- and 68.00-69.00. Sell in between 66.70-69.40 with stop loss at 69.40; targeting 66.00-65.40-64.50 and 62.90-63.50-61.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     66.00-65.40
S2     64.50
S3     63.50-62.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     66.70-67.50
R2     68.00
R3     70.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.168 Sell
20-DMA   57.49 Buy
50-DMA   53.14 Buy
100-DMA   47.36 Buy
200-DMA   43.42 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.447 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1961/EUR, high of US$1.2112/EUR and settled the day down by 0.219% to close at US$1.1968/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.890-1.1705 with risk below 1.1700, targeting 1.1960-1.2015-1.2090 and 1.2150-1.2190-1.2300. Sell below 1.1960-1.2190 targeting 1.1920-1.1890-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2340.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1925-1.1890
S2     1.1810
S3     1760-1.1705

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1960-1.2015
R2     1.2090
R3     1.2150-1.2190

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.2089 Sell
50-DMA   1.2130 Sell
100-DMA   1.2028 Sell
200-DMA   1.1809 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3777/GBP, high of US$1.3905/GBP and settled the day down by 0.383% to close at US$1.3839/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3865-1.4200 with targets at 1.3800-1.3745 and 1.3700-1.3650-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.4200. Buy above 1.3800-1.3570 with targets 1.3865-1.3940-1.3990-1.4040 and 1.4100-1.4200 with stop loss closing below 1.3570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3800-1.3747
S2     1.3700
S3     1.3650-1.3565

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3865-1.3900
R2     1.3950
R3     1.3990-1.4040

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

76.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3839 Buy
50-DMA   1.3685 Buy
100-DMA   1.3420 Buy
200-DMA   1.3096 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY107.81/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.63/USD and settled the day up by 0.274% at JPY108.254/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-109.90 with risk above 109.90 targeting 106.90-106.10-105.60 and 105.00-104.50-104.00. Long positions above 106.90-105.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50-108.00 and 108.50-109.00 with stop below 103.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.50
S2     107.50
S3     106.10-105.60

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.90
R2     109.90
R3     110.50-111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.407 Buy
20-DMA   103.66 Sell
50-DMA   103.80 Sell
100-DMA   104.45 Sell
200-DMA   105.66 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   79.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0750 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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