AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar languished near one-week lows on Thursday after benign data on U.S. consumer prices and a decline in Treasury yields led some investors to trim bets on a rapid acceleration in inflation. The euro was in focus ahead of a European Central Bank meeting later in the day where policymakers are expected to send a message that they will prevent bond yields from rising further and harming the bloc's economic outlook. The dollar index against six major currencies was flat at 91.79 after hitting a one-week low of 91.75 earlier in Asia as data showed U.S. core consumer price growth slowed slightly in February. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily due to expectations that the Fed's loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus will stoke inflation. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was at 1.528% on Thursday after hitting a one-year high of 1.626% last week. Focus later in the day will be on an auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries after an auction of 10-year notes on Wednesday drew sufficient demand, easing concerns about investors' ability to absorb an increase in debt needed to finance the response to the pandemic. Overall, analysts said sentiment for the dollar remained fairly positive as the U.S. economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic and as President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus bill won final approval in Congress. Investors have been testing the ECB's resolve to rein in rising bond yields. So far, the euro zone's central bank has refrained from large-scale market intervention, and policymakers are divided on whether one is warranted ahead of their meeting on Thursday. Policymakers have also expressed concern about strength in the euro, although a recent weakening of the currency has lowered expectations about major policy changes.
  • The dollar inched up on Thursday morning in Asia, reversing some losses stemming from trimmed rapid inflation acceleration bets over U.S. consumer price data and a drop in Treasury yields. Although the riskier Antipodean currencies steadied against the dollar, sentiment for them remains strong thanks to rising commodities prices and continuing hopes for an acceleration in global trade The U.S. data, released on Wednesday, showed that core consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month in February, down from the 0.2% growth in forecasts prepared by Investing.com but unchanged from the 0.1% growth recorded in January. However, dollar sentiment remained positive thanks to signs of the U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19. The U.S. House of Representatives gave final approval to a massive $1.9 trillion stimulus package, with some investors hoping that any further declines in the dollar are likely temporary President Joe Biden is expected to sign the bill into law before current enhanced federal unemployment benefits expire on Sunday. Investors are also keeping an eye on U.S. Treasury yields, which are climbing steadily over expectations that the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy and massive fiscal stimulus could drive inflation up Also on investors’ radars is the auction of 30-year Treasuries later in the day, an important indicator of demand for new debt. Wednesday's auction of ten-year Treasuries was met with sufficient demand and allayed concerns about investors’ ability to absorb the increase in debt needed to finance the COVID-19 response If future auctions also draw reasonably strong demand this would be another positive factor for the dollar, said IG Securities’ Ishikawa Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hand down its policy decision later in the day. Investors will look out for the central bank’s take on preventing bond yields from rising further, with ECB avoiding large-scale market intervention so far and policymakers divided ahead of their meeting The strengthening euro is also causing investors to be cautious ahead of the ECB’s meeting and policy decision. The dollar was quoted at $1.1928 against the euro, after its 0.2% fall during the previous session.
  • Crude oil prices rose on Thursday as vaccine rollouts bolstered the economic outlook and U.S. fuel stocks fell sharply, although gains were capped by a surge in crude oil inventories after last month's Texas storm. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 11.9 million barrels in the week to March 5 to 231.6 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, compared with expectations for a 3.5 million-barrel drop. Crude inventories, however, rose by 13.8 million barrels in the week to March 5 to 498.4 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an 816,000-barrel rise, as the nation's oil industry continued to feel the effects of a winter storm mid-February that stalled refining and forced production shut-ins in Texas. Globally, stocks also remain ample with crude oil in storage at major land and sea hubs rising last week, according to analysts and ship trackers. Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives gave final approval on Wednesday to one of the largest economic stimulus measures in American history, a sweeping $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill that gives President Joe Biden his first major victory in office. Saudi Arabia's foreign minister on Wednesday said the kingdom would take deterrent action to protect its oil facilities, following attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement on energy sites.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th March 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,715-1,730 1,747 1,764-1,776
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.50 27.25 27.65-28.20
Crude Oil 64.70-65.40 66.00 66.70-67.50
EURO/USD 1.1925-1.1960 1.2015 1.2090-1.2150
GBP/USD 1.3950-1.3990 1.4040 1.4090-1.4180
USD/JPY 109.00 109.90109.90 110.50-111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th March 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,705-1,684 1,675 1,655-1,643
Silver-XAG 25.40-24.90 24.10 23.60-23.00
Crude Oil 63.50-62.90 62.00 61.30-60.90
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1810 1.1760 1.1705-1.1650
GBP/USD 1.3747 1.3747 1.3700-1.3650
USD/JPY 108.50-108.00 107.50 106.90-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (11th March 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1726.68/oz and low of US$1708.12/oz. Gold up 0.631% at US$1726.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1690-1643 with risk below 1643, targeting 1715-1730-1747 and 1764-1776-1787. Sell below 1715-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1700-1684-1675 and 1675-1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,705-1,684
S2     1,675
S3     1,655-1,643
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,715-1,730
R2     1,747
R3     1,764-1,776

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.752

Buy
20-DMA   1756.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1815.70

Sell
100-DMA   1841.31 Sell
200-DMA   1857.86 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -34.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$26.21/oz and low of US$25.53/oz settled up by 1.209% at US$26.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.05-29.50 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 25.05-24.45 and 24.00-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 25.05-23.60, targeting 26.05-26.50-27.25 and 28.20-28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.40-24.90
S2     24.10
S3     23.60-23.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.50
R2     27.25
R3     27.65-28.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.922 Buy
20-DMA   26.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.47 Sell
100-DMA   25.38 Sell
200-DMA   24.04 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.468 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US64.88/bbl, intraday low of US$63.07/bbl and settled down by 1.263% to close at US$64.60/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 63.50-60.00 with risk daily closing below 60.00 and targeting 64.70-65.40-66.00 and 66.70-67.50. Sell in between 64.70-67.40 with stop loss at 67.40; targeting 63.50-62.90-62.00 and 61.40-60.90-60.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.50-62.90
S2     62.00
S3     61.30-60.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.70-65.40
R2     66.00
R3     66.70-67.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.168 Sell
20-DMA   61.49 Buy
50-DMA   56.39 Buy
100-DMA   49.81 Buy
200-DMA   45.02 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   52.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.196 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1868/EUR, high of US$1.1929/EUR and settled the day up by 0.247% to close at US$1.1927/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.850-1.1705 with risk below 1.1700, targeting 1.1900-1.2015-1.2090 and 1.2150-1.2190-1.2300. Sell below 1.1900-1.2190 targeting 1.1850-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2340.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1850-1.1810
S2     1.1760
S3     1.1705-1.1650

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1925-1.1960
R2     1.2015
R3     1.2090-1.2150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.2089 Sell
50-DMA   1.2130 Sell
100-DMA   1.2028 Sell
200-DMA   1.1809 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3844/GBP, high of US$1.3937/GBP and settled the day up by 0.267% to close at US$1.3926/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3950-1.4200 with targets at 1.3865-1.3800-1.3745 and 1.3700-1.3650-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.4200. Buy above 1.3890-1.3570 with targets 1.3900-1.3940-1.3990 and 1.4040-1.4100-1.4200 with stop loss closing below 1.3570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3747
S2     1.3747
S3     1.3700-1.3650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3950-1.3990
R2     1.4040
R3     1.4090-1.4180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3943 Buy
50-DMA   1.3775 Buy
100-DMA   1.3521 Buy
200-DMA   1.3184 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.91/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.91/USD and settled the day up by 0.098% at JPY108.36/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-107.50-106.90 and 106.10-105.60-105.00. Long positions above 108.50-106.00 with targets of 109.00-109.90 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-108.00
S2     107.50
S3     106.90-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.00
R2     109.90109.90
R3     110.50-111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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