AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trading Friday as Treasury yields returned to their recent highs, but it still looks set to record its first weekly fall in three. The euro and sterling were also in focus after the ECB meeting and the release of U.K. growth data. The index has dropped around 0.4% this week, but has firmed around 2% this year to date as it tracked benchmark 10-year Treasury yields from below 1% to as high as 1.62% at the end of last week. On Friday, the yield stood at around 1.59%, climbing from the 1.55% level seen Thursday. U.S. President Joe Biden signed a $1.9 trillion stimulus package into law late Thursday, a day after the House of Representative gave its final approval, meaning that checks for $1,400 will arrive on the doorsteps of many Americans in the near future. The dollar, along with U.S. Treasury yields, has been rising steadily due to expectations that the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus will stoke inflation. While this week’s consumer prices data dampened those expectations, recent employment numbers showed a strongly recovering labor market, with last week’s payrolls growing much more strongly than expected and Thursday’s jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the pandemic started. Elsewhere, EUR/USD fell 0.3% to 1.1945 after the European Central Bank said on Thursday it would accelerate its emergency bond purchases over the next quarter to combat rising European bond yields. Additionally, GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.3943 after the latest growth data showed Britain's economy shrank by 2.9% in January from December as the country went back into a coronavirus lockdown. Although this was a smaller drop than expected, it still indicated that the economy was 9.2% smaller than in January last year The Bank of England stated last week that Britain’s economy is likely to shrink 4% in the first quarter of 2021, hit by the latest Covid-related lockdowns as well as post-Brexit trade disruptions.
  • The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, holding firm after bouncing off a one-week low hit during the previous week. The greenback was supported by a rise in benchmark Treasury yields to more-than-one-year highs as inflation fears continue to persist. Retail sales also soared 33.8% year-on-year, against the predicted 32% growth and the previously recorded 4.6% growth. The unemployment rate was at 5.5%, higher than the previously recorded 5.2%. Investor worries about a faster-than-expected economic recovery leading to runaway inflation grew after a $1.9 trillion stimulus package was signed into law and the pace of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts quickens. U.S. President Joe Biden has ordered every state to make all adults eligible for vaccination by May 1. The U.S. currency has also been supported as investors pared bets on its decline and cut net short positions to the lowest since mid-November in the week ended Mar. 9, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The dollar index has gained 1.8% in 2021, tracking the rise in benchmark yields from below 1%. It fell nearly 7% In 2020, and some investors expect the dollar to resume that move downwards in due course. On the central bank front, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hand down its policy decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. Bitcoin dropped below the $60,000 mark after surging past a record $61,000 over the weekend. India will reportedly push ahead on a proposed law banning cryptocurrencies and fining anyone trading in the country or even holding such digital assets. The law, if it came into force, would be one of the strictest policies against digital assets.
  • Gold was up on Monday morning in Asia, as the passage of the latest U.S. stimulus measures continued to stoke inflation fears, although the resultant bounce in Treasury yields capped gains. U.S. President Joe Biden signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package into law on Friday, catapulting yields on benchmark ten-year notes upwards. Yields were in the vicinity of their highest level in more than a year over continued optimism on the continued U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19. On the central bank front, a slew of policy decisions is due in the coming week. The Federal Reserve releases its policy decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. U.S. data released on Friday said that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% month-on-month in February, against the 0.5% growth in forecasts prepared by Investing.com. It rose 2.8% year-on-year, against the forecast of 2.7%. The core PPI grew 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. Other data released on Friday said that hedge funds and money managers retreated from their bullish positions in COMEX gold and silver contracts in the week to Mar. 9. Data from Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) Global Research said that investors turned to stocks and retreated from gold and bonds in the week up to Mar. 10.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday, with Brent heading toward $70 a barrel, as data showed China's economic recovery accelerated at the start of 2021, boosting the energy demand outlook at the world's largest oil importer. China's industrial output growth quickened in January-February, beating expectations, while its daily refinery throughput data rose 15% from the same period a year ago, data showed. China's heavy industry has shown robust growth as its output of cement, steel, coal and aluminium registered double-digit growth compared with 2019's pre-COVID pandemic levels, said Seng Yick Tee, analyst at China consultancy SIA Energy, adding that the growth rates were "insane" given China's large bases. Producing and transporting all these materials requires energy, he said. Further supporting prices, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has cut the supply of April-loading crude to at least four north Asian buyers by up to 15%, while meeting the normal monthly requirements of Indian refiners, refinery sources told Reuters on Friday. The supply cuts come as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, decided earlier this month to extend most of its supply cuts into April. In the United States, oil refiners' weekly capacity were seen up 1.6 million barrels per day, research company IIR Energy said on Friday, as more plants resume operations following outages during the severe winter storm in Texas last month. Separately, U.S. energy firms have cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating by one in the first weekly drop since November, according to Baker Hughes Co.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th March 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,730-1742 1,751 1,764-1,776
Silver-XAG 27.25 27.25 27.65-28.20
Crude Oil 66.00-66.70 67.50 68.00-69.00
EURO/USD 1.1960 1.2015 1.2090-1.2150
GBP/USD 1.3950-1.3990 1.4040 1.4090-1.4180
USD/JPY 109.25 109.90 110.50-111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th March 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,715-1,705 1,684 1,675-1,655
Silver-XAG 25.40-24.90 24.10 23.60-23.00
Crude Oil 65.40-64.70 63.50 62.55-62.00
EURO/USD 1.1925-1.1850 1.1810 1.1760-1.1705
GBP/USD 1.3900-1.3865 1.3747 1.3700-1.3650
USD/JPY 108.50-108.00 107.50 106.90-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (15th March 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1729.23/oz and low of US$1699.08/oz. Gold up 1.299% at US$1727.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1715-1643 with risk below 1643, targeting 1730-1743-1751 and 1764-1776-1787. Sell below 1730-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1700-1684-1675 and 1675-1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,715-1,705
S2     1,684
S3     1,675-1,655
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,730-1742
R2     1,751
R3     1,764-1,776

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.752

Buy
20-DMA   1750.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1812.70

Sell
100-DMA   1839.31 Sell
200-DMA   1857.86 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   82.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -34.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$26.15/oz and low of US$25.37/oz settled down by 0.689% at US$25.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.05-29.50 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 25.05-24.45 and 24.00-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 25.05-23.60, targeting 26.05-26.50-27.25 and 28.20-28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.40-24.90
S2     24.10
S3     23.60-23.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     27.25
R2     27.25
R3     27.65-28.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.364 Buy
20-DMA   26.66 Sell
50-DMA   26.43 Sell
100-DMA   25.44 Sell
200-DMA   24.24 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US66.18/bbl, intraday low of US$65.37/bbl and settled down by 0.581% to close at US$65.53/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 65.40-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00 and targeting 66.00-66.70-67.50 and 68.00-69.00. Sell in between 65.90-69.00 with stop loss at 69.00; targeting 65.40-64.70-63.50 and 62.90-62.00-61.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.40-64.70
S2     63.50
S3     62.55-62.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     66.00-66.70
R2     67.50
R3     68.00-69.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.34 Buy
50-DMA   57.12 Buy
100-DMA   50.32 Buy
200-DMA   45.32 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.196 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1909/EUR, high of US$1.1987/EUR and settled the day down by 0.268% to close at US$1.1952/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1925-1.1705 with risk below 1.1700, targeting 1.1960-1.2015-1.2090 and 1.2150-1.2190-1.2300. Sell below 1.1960-1.2190 targeting 1.1925-1.1850-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2340.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1925-1.1850
S2     1.1810
S3     1.1760-1.1705

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1960
R2     1.2015
R3     1.2090-1.2150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.2043 Sell
50-DMA   1.2098 Sell
100-DMA   1.2035 Sell
200-DMA   1.1828 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3862/GBP, high of US$1.4004/GBP and settled the day down by 0.4561% to close at US$1.3923/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3950-1.4200 with targets at 1.3865-1.3800-1.3745 and 1.3700-1.3650-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.4200. Buy above 1.3890-1.3570 with targets 1.3900-1.3940-1.3990 and 1.4040-1.4100-1.4200 with stop loss closing below 1.3570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3900-1.3865
S2     1.3747
S3     1.3700-1.3650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3950-1.3990
R2     1.4040
R3     1.4090-1.4180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3943 Buy
50-DMA   1.3775 Buy
100-DMA   1.3521 Buy
200-DMA   1.3184 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.46/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.15/USD and settled the day up by 0.481% at JPY109.01/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.25-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-107.50-106.90 and 106.10-105.60-105.00. Long positions above 108.50-106.00 with targets of 109.00-109.90 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-108.00
S2     107.50
S3     106.90-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.25
R2     109.90
R3     110.50-111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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