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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trading Tuesday, amid cautious trading with the focus very much on the Federal Reserve in a week dominated by central bank meetings. EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.1919, while GBP/USD fell 0.5% to 1.3831, ahead of a Bank of England meeting on Thursday on a combination of rising inflation expectations and confidence that the Bank of England will keep its policy unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. The risk-sensitive AUD/USD dropped 0.3% to 0.7736. The main focus will be on the Federal Reserve this week, as it begins its two-day policy meeting later Tuesday. While the U.S. central bank is not expected to make any changes to its current monetary policy, what Chairman Jerome Powell has to say about the run-up in bond yields will be keenly studied amid concerns that economic growth and rising inflation could prompt a faster-than-expected normalisation of monetary policy. The market is also waiting for a decision on the supplemental leverage ratio exemption, a move that allows big banks to exclude reserve deposits and Treasury holdings from their capital ratio calculations. This is due to expire at the end of this month. Away from the Fed, Norway’s central bank is likely to keep its key policy rate unchanged when it meets on Thursday, but the upturn in inflationary pressures will make for increasingly difficult decisions for Turkey’s central bank, also on Thursday, and Russia’s on Friday.
  • The U.S. dollar clung to small gains on Tuesday as caution reigned in currency markets ahead of major central bank meetings, beginning with a two-day Federal Reserve gathering due to start later in the global day. The greenback hovered just off its highest since June versus the yen and cemented a position around $1.19 per euro in muted trading. The firmer tone for the dollar came despite a retreat in U.S. benchmark yields from the highest levels in more than a year ahead of the Fed meeting. Expectations are running low for monetary policymakers to shift from their accommodative stance despite forecasts of rapid economic growth in the wake of an accelerating COVID-19 vaccine roll-out and a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package. Investors will pore over whatever the Fed has to say about the run-up in yields, which have risen on bets that economic growth and inflation could prompt a faster-than-expected normalisation of monetary policy. The SLR exemption, a regulatory break that allows big banks to exclude reserve deposits and Treasuries from capital ratios, is due to expire on March 31. The dollar was little changed at 109.170 yen after rising to a nine-month high of 109.365 on Monday. The Bank of Japan begins a two-day policy meeting on Thursday, along with an extensive policy review. The euro was largely flat at $1.19330, languishing below $1.20 since March 5. Europe's vaccine roll-out has been hampered by the suspension of AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) shots in Germany, France and other nations amid concerns about possible serious side effects. Sterling fell about 0.2% to $1.3871 ahead of a Bank of England meeting on Thursday, where the central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at its historic low of 0.1% and its bond-buying programme unchanged. The dollar's index against six major currencies was flat at 91.798 after rising nearly 0.2% on Monday.
  • Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, extending declines to three consecutive days, as rising stockpiles in the United States added to the risks to a demand recovery after countries including Germany and France halted COVID-19 vaccinations. Germany, France and Italy plan to suspend AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) PLC COVID-19 injections after reports of possible serious side effects, although the World Health Organization said there was no established link to the vaccine. These moves are deepening concerns about a slow pace of vaccinations in the region, which may delay any economic recovery from the pandemic in one of the hardest-hit areas. The pandemic eviscerated demand for oil but prices have recovered to levels before the global health crisis, only to be capped as vaccination rollouts have been slow in most countries. In the United States, stockpiles are also rising because of last month's "big freeze" which halted refining operations that have taken time to fully return. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, will report crude stock pile levels later on Tuesday, followed by official numbers from the Department of Energy on Wednesday, with analysts expecting another week of gain. Crude inventories increased by 12.8 million barrels in the week to March 5, against analysts' expectations for a rise of less than 1 million barrels. Oil was down Tuesday morning in Asia, reporting a third consecutive day of losses over concerns about rising U.S. crude oil stockpiles, as well as the impact of a delay in European COVID-19 vaccines on fuel demand recovery. However, the World Health Organization said there was no established link to the vaccine and urged against panic. In the Asia-Pacific region, Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said earlier in the day that the country has no plans to halt the use of the vaccine. Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha and members of his cabinet were also inoculated with the jab on Tuesday. The European worries threaten to undo the black liquid’s recovery to pre-COVID-19 prices after the pandemic saw fuel demand dry up, However, gains have been capped due to the slow pace of the global COVID-19 vaccine rollout in general. Across the Atlantic, stockpiles continue to increase as production continues a slow recovery from February’s unexpected cold snap in Texas and the surrounding areas. U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute is due later in the day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th March 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,730-1742 1,751 1,764-1,776
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.50 27.25 27.65-28.20
Crude Oil 66.00-66.70 67.50 68.00
EURO/USD 1.1960 1.2015 1.2090-1.2150
GBP/USD 1.3865-1.3950 1.3990 1.4040-1.4090
USD/JPY 109.40 109.90 110.50-111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th March 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,715-1,705 1,684 1,675-1,655
Silver-XAG 25.40-24.90 24.10 23.60-23.00
Crude Oil 65.40-64.70 63.50 62.55-62.00
EURO/USD 1.1925-1.1850 1.1810 1.1960
GBP/USD 1.38000-1.3747 1.3700 1.3650-1.3600
USD/JPY 108.50-108.00 107.50 106.90-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (16th March 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1734.44/oz and low of US$1721.57/oz. Gold up 0.2646% at US$1731.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1715-1643 with risk below 1643, targeting 1730-1743-1751 and 1764-1776-1787. Sell below 1730-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1700-1684-1675 and 1675-1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,715-1,705
S2     1,684
S3     1,675-1,655
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,730-1742
R2     1,751
R3     1,764-1,776

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.752

Buy
20-DMA   1743.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1803.70

Sell
100-DMA   1835.31 Sell
200-DMA   1858.86 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -34.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$26.28/oz and low of US$25.79/oz settled up by 0.982% at US$26.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.05-29.50 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 25.05-24.45 and 24.00-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 25.05-23.60, targeting 26.05-26.50-27.25 and 28.20-28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.40-24.90
S2     24.10
S3     23.60-23.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.50
R2     27.25
R3     27.65-28.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.364 Buy
20-DMA   26.66 Sell
50-DMA   26.43 Sell
100-DMA   25.44 Sell
200-DMA   24.24 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US66.40/bbl, intraday low of US$64.17/bbl and settled down by 0.542% to close at US$65.25/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 65.40-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00 and targeting 66.00-66.70-67.50 and 68.00-69.00. Sell in between 65.90-69.00 with stop loss at 69.00; targeting 65.40-64.70-63.50 and 62.90-62.00-61.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.40-64.70
S2     63.50
S3     62.55-62.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     66.00-66.70
R2     67.50
R3     68.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.34 Buy
50-DMA   57.12 Buy
100-DMA   50.32 Buy
200-DMA   45.32 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.196 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1910/EUR, high of US$1.1966/EUR and settled the day down by 0.168% to close at US$1.1927/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1925-1.1705 with risk below 1.1700, targeting 1.1960-1.2015-1.2090 and 1.2150-1.2190-1.2300. Sell below 1.1960-1.2190 targeting 1.1925-1.1850-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2340.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1925-1.1850
S2     1.1810
S3     1.1960

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1960
R2     1.2015
R3     1.2090-1.2150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.2043 Sell
50-DMA   1.2098 Sell
100-DMA   1.2035 Sell
200-DMA   1.1828 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3852/GBP, high of US$1.3948/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0007% to close at US$1.3900/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3865-1.4200 with targets at 1.3800-1.3745 and 1.3700-1.3650-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.4200. Buy above 1.3800-1.3570 with targets 1.3900-1.3940-1.3990 and 1.4040-1.4100-1.4200 with stop loss closing below 1.3570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.38000-1.3747
S2     1.3700
S3     1.3650-1.3600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3865-1.3950
R2     1.3990
R3     1.4040-1.4090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3943 Buy
50-DMA   1.3775 Buy
100-DMA   1.3521 Buy
200-DMA   1.3184 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY108.90/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.35/USD and settled the day up by 0.1165% at JPY109.13/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-108.00
S2     107.50
S3     106.90-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.40
R2     109.90
R3     110.50-111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

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