AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The safe-haven U.S. dollar held firmer on Friday, supported by higher Treasury yields and falling stock markets, as investors digested the Federal Reserve's pushback against expectations of any early interest-rate hikes. The yen dipped briefly after the Bank of Japan widened its target band for the benchmark yield in a decision that was in line with market expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pledged this week to press on with aggressive monetary stimulus, saying a near-term spike in inflation would prove temporary amid their projections for the strongest U.S economic growth in nearly 40 years. Following the BOJ's decision to widen the target band for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to 25 basis points around 0% from 20 basis points previously, the yen briefly weakened past 109 per dollar, before retracing all of that move. While AstraZeneca vaccinations are poised to restart in Germany, France and other European nations, the region's growth outlook was dinged as Paris went into a month-long lockdown. The British pound sank 0.1% to $1.3913 after weakening 0.3% a day earlier, as the Bank of England warned the outlook for Britain's recovery remained unclear, dampening some speculation the bank would signal a more confident outlook. In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin stood at around $57,800, as it seesawed after briefly topping $60,000 again overnight.
  • The dollar inched down on Friday morning in Asia but was boosted by rising Treasury yields and a fall in global shares. Investors also continue to contemplate the U.S. Federal Reserve’s deflection of early interest-rate hike expectations. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield climbed to a more than one-year peak of 1.754% during the previous session before dropping to 1.715%. The Fed handed down its policy decision on Wednesday and pledged to carry on with aggressive monetary stimulus. Rounding up a week of central bank policy decisions, the BOJ handed down its own decision earlier in the day. BOJ also announced the results of a comprehensive policy review and was expected to slightly widen the implicit band in which it allows long-term interest rates to move around its 0% target. The Bank of England (BOE) handed down its decision the day before. It also warned that the outlook for U.K.’s recovery from COVID-19 remained unclear, which disappointed expectations that BOE would signal a more confident outlook. Elsewhere in Europe, several countries, including Germany and France, plan to resume usage of the AstraZeneca PLC/University of Oxford COVID-19 vaccine. The European Medicines Agency (EMA)’s endorsement of the vaccine on Thursday to calm jitters over potential side effects is set to give the continent's COVID-19 vaccination rollout a boost. However, a third wave of COVID-19 cases in France saw Paris and other parts of the country enter a fresh lockdown, dampening investor sentiment. The euro slipped 0.1%, extending Thursday’s 0.5% drop. Chairman Jerome Powell made it pretty clear, as he handed down the central bank's latest policy decision on Wednesday, that the Fed would be sticking to its easy money policies for some time, even while predicting a strong economic recovery and a jump in inflation above target. The Fed predicted that the economy would grow 6.5% in 2021, the largest annual jump in GDP since 1984 and a hefty increase from the 4.2% growth projected just three months ago. It saw core personal consumer expenditures - its favored measure of inflation - at 2.2% by the end of the year, and remaining marginally above 2% for the next two years. The yield on the benchmark 10-Year U.S. Treasury note climbed above 1.73%, its highest level in more than a year, providing support for the greenback in the wake of Powell’s dovish comments. The Bank of England is not expected to change its monetary policy stance when it meets later Thursday, but it probably will emphasize its high bar for tightening monetary policy even as the economic outlook brightens.
  • Oil prices fell on Friday for a sixth day in a row, down nearly 9% for the week, as a new wave of COVID-19 infections in particular across Europe spurred fresh lockdowns and dampened hopes for an imminent recovery in fuel demand. Oil had edged up in Asia's morning trading after a 7% drop on Thursday as physical buyers leapt at the chance to load up on cheap oil, said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, in a Friday note. But the market remains increasingly worried about fuel demand outlook amid rising coronavirus cases, fresh restrictions and slowing vaccination rollouts in some countries, analysts said. Goldman Sachs said headwinds related to European Union demand and Iran supply would slow the oil market rebalancing by 0.75 mn bpd in the second quarter, although it expects OPEC+ will act to offset that. Safety concerns about the side effects of the AstraZeneca vaccine had led several European countries to stop administering the shot. Although Germany, France and other countries have announced the resumption of inoculations after regulators declared the AstraZeneca vaccine safe, the programme halt has made it harder to overcome resistance to vaccines among some of the population. Britain will have to slow its COVID-19 vaccine rollout next month due to a supply delay. Several French regions badly hit by the COVID-19 epidemic, including the Ile-de-France region around Paris, will start a new four-week lockdown from Friday. In other parts of the world, Brazil registered its second deadliest day in its COVID-19 pandemic, with 2,724 deaths, while India on Friday reported its highest daily increase of new COVID-19 cases in more than three months. Supplies of oil are plentiful as well, with Saudi Arabia's crude exports increasing in January for a seventh straight month to the highest since April 2020, according to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative website on Thursday. Shipments from the world's biggest oil exporter increased to 6.582 million barrels per day in January from 6.495 million the previous month. Investors triggered a sudden sell-off on Thursday over a perfect storm of negative factors. Inflation concerns pushing Treasury yields upwards saw the dollar edge up on Friday, making raw materials priced in the U.S. currency comparatively more expensive. France and Italy are among the countries batting a third wave of COVID-19 cases, and there are emerging signs of declining fuel demand in Asia as well. Commodity trading advisors unwinding some long positions, as daily moves of more than 3% can trigger funds to quickly unload, could be another potential contributor to the selloff. Another concern is the recent, further signs of weakness in WTI’s prompt time spread, which has widened to 8 cents a barrel after flipping to a narrow contango at the end of the previous week. Although Brent remains in backwardation, it has narrowed to 22 cents. The International Energy Agency also warned earlier in the week that oil markets are not on the verge of a new super-cycle as supplies remain plentiful. Despite its woes, the black liquid has seen prices remain more than 20% in 2021 as optimism for economic recovery from COVID-19 remains strong, thanks to the U.S.’ $1.9 trillion stimulus package, which was signed into law earlier in the month. the OPEC+ s decision, also earlier in the month, to extend supply curbs into April also helped buoy prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th March 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,742 1,751 1,764-1,776
Silver-XAG 26.50 27.25 27.65-28.20
Crude Oil 61.40-62.00 62.55 63.50-64.70
EURO/USD 1.1960 1.2015 1.2090-1.2150
GBP/USD 1.3950 1.3990 1.4040-1.4090
USD/JPY 109.40 109.90 110.50-111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th March 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,730-1,715 1,705 1,684-1,675
Silver-XAG 26.05-25.40 24.90 24.10-23.60
Crude Oil 59.25-58.25 57.10 56.40-56.00
EURO/USD 1.1925-1.1850 1.1810 1.1760-1.1705
GBP/USD 1.3865-1.3800 1.3747 1.3700-1.3650
USD/JPY 108.50-108.00 107.50 106.90-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (19th March 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1755.43/oz and low of US$1719.14/oz. Gold down 0.474% at US$1736.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1715-1643 with risk below 1643, targeting 1730-1743-1751 and 1764-1776-1787. Sell below 1730-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1700-1684-1675 and 1675-1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,730-1,715
S2     1,705
S3     1,684-1,675
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,742
R2     1,751
R3     1,764-1,776

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.752

Buy
20-DMA   1743.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1803.70

Sell
100-DMA   1835.31 Sell
200-DMA   1858.86 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -34.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$26.62/oz and low of US$25.82/oz settled down by % at US$26.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.05-29.50 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 25.05-24.45 and 24.00-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 25.05-23.60, targeting 26.05-26.50-27.25 and 28.20-28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     26.05-25.40
S2     24.90
S3     24.10-23.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.50
R2     27.25
R3     27.65-28.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.364 Buy
20-DMA   26.66 Sell
50-DMA   26.43 Sell
100-DMA   25.44 Sell
200-DMA   24.24 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US64.84/bbl, intraday low of US$58.274/bbl and settled down by 7.54% to close at US$59.27/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 59.25-56.00 with risk daily closing below 59.00 and targeting 61.40-62.00-62.55 and 63.50-64.70. Sell in between 61.40-64.70 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 59.25-58.25-57.10 and 56.40-56.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.25-58.25
S2     57.10
S3     56.40-56.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     61.40-62.00
R2     62.55
R3     63.50-64.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.99 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1905/EUR, high of US$1.1988/EUR and settled the day up by 0.564% to close at US$1.1911/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1925-1.1705 with risk below 1.1700, targeting 1.1960-1.2015-1.2090 and 1.2150-1.2190-1.2300. Sell below 1.1960-1.2190 targeting 1.1925-1.1850-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2340.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1925-1.1850
S2     1.1810
S3     1.1760-1.1705

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1960
R2     1.2015
R3     1.2090-1.2150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.2043 Sell
50-DMA   1.2098 Sell
100-DMA   1.2035 Sell
200-DMA   1.1828 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3896/GBP, high of US$1.4000/GBP and settled the day up by 0.2414% to close at US$1.3922/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3865-1.4200 with targets at 1.3800-1.3745 and 1.3700-1.3650-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.4200. Buy above 1.3800-1.3570 with targets 1.3900-1.3940-1.3990 and 1.4040-1.4100-1.4200 with stop loss closing below 1.3570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3865-1.3800
S2     1.3747
S3     1.3700-1.3650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3950
R2     1.3990
R3     1.4040-1.4090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3943 Buy
50-DMA   1.3775 Buy
100-DMA   1.3521 Buy
200-DMA   1.3184 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY108.61/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.29/USD and settled the day up by 0.057% at JPY108.91/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.40-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-107.50-106.90 and 106.10-105.60-105.00. Long positions above 108.50-106.00 with targets of 109.00-109.90 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-108.00
S2     107.50
S3     106.90-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.40
R2     109.90
R3     110.50-111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING