AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar climbed in early European trading Wednesday, nearing a four-month high as worries about a third Covid wave and potential tax hikes prompted traders to seek out the safe haven. EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.1824, falling to a four-month low, after the Netherlands joined the likes of Germany, France and Italy in extending its lockdown following a sharp pickup in Covid-19 cases, threatening to overwhelm its hospitals. Adding to the concerns, a U.S. health agency said Tuesday the AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) vaccine may have included outdated information in its trial data. This vaccine has had a troubled history, with a number of European countries suspending its use last week over reports of blood clots from a small number of its recipients. It was cleared late last week by the European regulator, but confidence in its efficacy has been shaken, and this news will hardly help, particularly given the slow rollout of vaccines in the region. The greenback was also supported by comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday indicating that tax rises may be on their way. Yellen was asked about the impact of corporate tax hikes on prices and consumers, and replied that existing studies are "very unclear", but added the funds raised from taxes would help fund the government's spending plan, including an infrastructure package. Both Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are scheduled to testify to the Senate Banking Panel on Wednesday. The safe-haven U.S. dollar approached a four-month high on Wednesday as concerns over a third COVID-19 wave in Europe, potential U.S. tax hikes and escalating tensions between the West and China sapped risk appetite. The yen also strengthened and U.S. Treasuries were bid while Wall Street stocks and crude oil tumbled as investors weighed the outlook for global growth. The euro edged toward a four-month trough below $1.18355 - trading as low as $1.18360 - after Germany extended a lockdown and urged its citizens to stay at home during the Easter holiday. Worries over the pace of the pandemic recovery were heightened after a U.S. health agency said the AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) Plc vaccine may have included outdated information in its data. The flight to safety received an additional nudge when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers that future tax hikes will be needed to pay for infrastructure projects and other public investments. Human rights sanctions on China imposed by the United States, Europe and Britain, which prompted retaliatory sanctions from Beijing, are adding to market concerns. The safe-haven yen was broadly stronger, and Australia's dollar - considered a liquid proxy for risk - weakened further on Wednesday. Seasonal factors are likely exacerbating currency moves, as some investors lock in profits ahead of the quarter-end and the holidays of Easter and Passover, according to Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.
  • Gold was up on Wednesday morning in Asia, with investors and Congress reassured by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that inflation will remain under control. U.S. Treasury yields fell after Powell told Congress on Tuesday that he expected inflation to rise over the course of the year, but it would be “neither particularly large nor persistent.” He will deliver the same remarks to a Senate committee later in the day. The Fed will show “resolute patience” in waiting to meet its employment and inflation goals before pulling back on support for an economy still healing from the pandemic, Fed Governor Lael Brainard added on the same day. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, testifying alongside Powell at Congress, warned that the U.S. economy remains at risk as she answered questions about potential infrastructure and tax increase plans.
  • Oil was mixed Wednesday morning in Asia, as investors continue to digest an increase in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. The prompt timespread for Brent futures is now at a bearish 7 cents in contango, compared with the bullish backwardation of 67 cents at the beginning of March. U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a build of 2.927 million barrels for the week ending Mar. 19. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com predicted a 900,000-barrel build, while a 1-million-barrel draw was recorded during the previous week. Further data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due later in the day. The outlook is also clouded by a third wave of COVID-19 cases in Europe, which has triggered renewed restrictive measures in several countries. The number of cases is also rising in India, the third-largest oil importer globally. Oil has dropped more than 12% in less than two weeks due to weak fuel demand, a strengthening dollar, and investors unwinding their long positions. The drop could prompt more action from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) when it convenes on Apr. 1 to determine production policy for May 2021. Despite the recent drop, however, the black liquid is up almost 20% in 2021. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines globally has increased hopes of more mobility and fuel demand recovery in the long run. Oil prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday as investors sought bargains following the previous day's slump, but the recovery was stunted by fears of a slow recovery in demand due to new pandemic lockdowns in Europe and a build in U.S. crude stocks. Both benchmarks touched their lowest levels since early February on Tuesday and have now fallen about 14% from their recent highs earlier this month. The front-month spread for both Brent and WTI slipped into a small contango, where front-month contracts are lower than the later months, a sign that demand for prompt crude is declining. Germany, Europe's biggest oil consumer, extended its lockdown to April 18, and Chancellor Angela Merkel urged citizens to stay at home for five days over the Easter holiday. Worries over the pace of the recovery from the pandemic were also heightened after a U.S. health agency said the AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) Plc vaccine developed with Oxford University may have included outdated information in its data. Adding to pressure, U.S. crude oil stocks jumped by 2.9 million barrels in the week to March 19, against analysts' expectations in a Reuters' poll for a decline of about 300,000 barrels, according to trading sources citing data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute. But gasoline stocks fell by 3.7 million barrels, compared with expectations for a build of 1.2 million barrels. The weakness in oil this week seems to have validated the cautious view expressed by Saudi Arabia at the last OPEC meeting and increases the probability of yet another rollover of current production levels at next week's meeting, Axi's Innes said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th March 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,742 1,751 1,764-1,776
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.05 26.50 27.25-27.65
Crude Oil 59.25-61.40 62.00 62.55-63.50
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1905 1.1960 1.2015-1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3700-1.3747 1.3800 1.3865-1.3950
USD/JPY 109.40 109.90 110.50-111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th March 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,726-1,715 1,705 1,684-1,675
Silver-XAG 24.90¬-24.10 23.60 23.00-22.50
Crude Oil 58.25-57.10 56.40 56.00-55.00
EURO/USD 1.1810-1.1760 1.1705 1.1650-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3650-1.3600 1.3520 1.3450-1.3390
USD/JPY 108.50-108.00 107.50 106.90-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (24th March 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1742.48/oz and low of US$1724.60/oz. Gold down 0.693% at US$1726.50/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1725-1643 with risk below 1643, targeting 1735-1743-1751 and 1764-1776-1787. Sell below 1730-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1700-1684-1675 and 1675-1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,726-1,715
S2     1,705
S3     1,684-1,675
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,742
R2     1,751
R3     1,764-1,776

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1787.56

Sell
100-DMA   1826.75 Sell
200-DMA   1858.71 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -14.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$25.81/oz and low of US$25.00/oz settled down by 0.787% at US$25.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.05-29.50 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 25.05-24.45 and 24.00-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 25.05-23.60, targeting 26.05-26.50-27.25 and 28.20-28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.90¬-24.10
S2     23.60
S3     23.00-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.05
R2     26.50
R3     27.25-27.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US61.30/bbl, intraday low of US$57.21/bbl and settled down by 6.299% to close at US$57.34/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.25-56.00 with risk daily closing below 59.00 and targeting 61.40-62.00-62.55 and 63.50-64.70. Sell in between 61.40-64.70 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 59.25-58.25-57.10 and 56.40-56.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.25-57.10
S2     56.40
S3     56.00-55.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.25-61.40
R2     62.00
R3     62.55-63.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.99 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1905/EUR, high of US$1.1988/EUR and settled the day down by 0.083% to close at US$1.1911/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1810-1.1705 with risk below 1.1700, targeting 1.1850-1.1905-1.1960 and 1.2015-1.2090-1.2150. Sell below 1.1850-1.2090 targeting 1.1925-1.1850-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2340.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1810-1.1760
S2     1.1705
S3     1.1650-1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1905
R2     1.1960
R3     1.2015-1.2090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1950 Sell
50-DMA   1.2046 Sell
100-DMA   1.2048 Sell
200-DMA   1.1852 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3739/GBP, high of US$1.3863/GBP and settled the day down by 0.785% to close at US$1.3749/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3700-1.3950 with targets at 1.3650-1.3600-1.3565 and 1.3520-1.3450-1.3390 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3650-1.3390 with targets 1.3700-1.3747-1.3800 and 1.3900-1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3650-1.3600
S2     1.3520
S3     1.3450-1.3390

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3700-1.3747
R2     1.3800
R3     1.3865-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3894 Buy
50-DMA   1.3825 Buy
100-DMA   1.3603 Buy
200-DMA   1.3239 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.60/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.12/USD and settled the day down by 2.12% at JPY108.88/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-107.50-106.90 and 106.10-105.60-105.00. Long positions above 108.50-106.00 with targets of 109.00-109.90 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-108.00
S2     107.50
S3     106.90-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.40
R2     109.90
R3     110.50-111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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