AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar pushed higher in early European trading Thursday, climbing to a four-month high against the euro as the third Covid wave and slow vaccine rollout in Europe weigh on the single currency. EUR/USD was down 0.1% at 1.1805, having traded at a new four-month low of 1.1803 earlier, with the single currency suffering as a consequence of the region’s extended lockdowns and delayed vaccine rollouts. A number of European countries, such as Germany, France and Italy, have recently extended their mobility restrictions following a sharp pickup in Covid-19 cases. Indeed, the French government is ready to take tougher measures if current restrictions to limit the spread of the coronavirus fail, Health Minister Olivier Veran said on Wednesday. On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed their confidence in the U.S. recovery during a second day of testimony to Congress. This confidence surrounding the U.S. economic rebound is in contrast to large parts of the developed and developing world, who are struggling to reopen their economies as they combat rising numbers of Covid cases. Elsewhere, USD/TRY fell 0.1% to 7.9170, with the lira benefitting slightly from the state news agency Anadolu reporting that Turkey’s new central bank governor has promised to stick to the single interest-rate framework adopted by his predecessor, citing a meeting between the monetary authority and commercial lenders on Wednesday.
  • The dollar hit a fresh four-month high against the euro on Thursday as the U.S. pandemic response continued to outpace Europe's, which has been hobbled by extended lockdowns and delayed vaccine rollouts. The safe-haven greenback held on to most of a broad two-day advance, which has been fuelled by worries ranging from Europe's third COVID-19 wave and potential U.S. tax hikes to the persistent spectre of inflation. Even Germany's reversal of a call for a strict lockdown over the Easter period did little to build confidence in the region's economic outlook, instead compounding discontent with Chancellor Angela Merkel's handling of the pandemic. The euro traded near the four-month low of $1.1809 touched earlier in the Asian session, while a gauge of the dollar against six major peers hovered just below a four-month high of 92.617 reached overnight. At the same time, the dollar's rally showed some signs of fatigue, as some of its bruised rivals recovered from lows amid gains in many Asian equity markets. On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed their confidence in the U.S. recovery during a second day of testimony to Congress. Yellen told Senate lawmakers she was open to banks buying back stock and paying dividends, an updated view showing her confidence in the economy. Powell also said he thinks 2021 will be a "very, very strong year in the most likely case." A day earlier, though, the treasury secretary had put investors on alert after espousing tax hikes to pay for President Joe Biden's plans for upgrading infrastructure and other investments. Inflation could also rear its head as disruptions in the supply chain exert cost pressures for manufacturers, with U.S. factory activity picking up in early March. Meanwhile in Europe, an unexpected expansion of business activity did little to brighten the mood, with renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in many of the bloc's member nations meaning the gains may not last through April. Concerns have been magnified because the third wave of infections is being largely driven by the U.K. strain of the virus, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Kim Mundy.
  • Gold was up on Thursday morning in Asia, steadying as U.S. Treasury yields eased. A strengthening dollar capped the yellow metal’s gains, however. The dollar, which usually moves inversely to gold, also inched up on Thursday. The greenback hit a fresh four-month high against the euro on Thursday, emerging as the safe-haven asset of choice as Europe struggles with its third wave of COVID-19 cases and a delayed vaccine rollout. In the U.S., average demand for Wednesday’s auction of five-year notes saw U.S. Treasury yields drop and stabilize after benchmark yields reached one-year highs during the previous week. Seven-year notes are due to go under the hammer later in the day. On the central bank front, the timeline for when the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to raise rates is dependent on what is happening with the economy, New York Fed President John Williams (NYSE:WMB) said on Wednesday. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans also added that the Fed will not reduce monetary policy accommodation until it sees actual improvements. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday said that U.S. banks look healthy enough to be allowed to pay dividends and repurchase stock during her second day of Congressional testimony alongside Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Yellen seemed to reverse course after raising the possibility of tax hikes to fund infrastructure and other programs on Tuesday.
  • Oil prices fell more than 2% as fresh coronavirus lockdowns revived worries about demand for oil products, even as tug boats struggled to move a stranded container ship blocking crude oil carriers in the Suez Canal. Prices, which tumbled earlier in the week on worries about tighter pandemic curbs in Europe and vaccine delays stalling fuel demand growth, sharply reversed on Wednesday on news of the grounding in the Suez Canal, potentially blocking 10 tankers carrying 13 million barrels of oil. The market was also helped on Wednesday by data showing U.S. gasoline demand improved and refinery run rates were picking up as well as data pointing to strong Euro zone economic activity this month. However, analysts said such supportive factors were likely to be overshadowed by growing concerns about global demand. India on Wednesday reported its highest one-day tally of new infections and deaths and said a new "double mutant" variant of the coronavirus had been found. Given the persistent demand worries and falling prices, expectations are growing that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, will roll over their current supply curbs into May at a meeting scheduled for April 1, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters. OPEC and other producers had hoped to ease output cuts, but industry sources say a fresh wave of lockdowns around the world threatens to tear up those plans.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th March 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,742 1,751 1,764-1,776
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.05 26.50 27.25-27.65
Crude Oil 60.50-61.40 62.00 62.55-63.50
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1905 1.1960 1.2015-1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3700-1.3747 1.3800 1.3865-1.3950
USD/JPY 109.40 109.90 110.50-111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th March 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,726-1,715 1,684-1,675 1,684-1,675
Silver-XAG 24.90¬-24.10 23.60 23.00-22.50
Crude Oil 59.25-58.25 57.10 60.50-61.40
EURO/USD 1.1810-1.1760 1.1705 1.1650-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3650-1.3600 1.3520 1.3450-1.3390
USD/JPY 108.50-108.00 107.50 106.90-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (25th March 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1742.48/oz and low of US$1723.72/oz. Gold up 0.438% at US$1734.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1730-1643 with risk below 1643, targeting 1743-1751 and 1764-1776-1787. Sell below 1743-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1700-1684-1675 and 1675-1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,726-1,715
S2     1,684-1,675
S3     1,684-1,675
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,742
R2     1,751
R3     1,764-1,776

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1787.56

Sell
100-DMA   1826.75 Sell
200-DMA   1858.71 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -14.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$25.34/oz and low of US$24.95/oz settled up by 0.0598% at US$25.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.05-29.50 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 25.05-24.45 and 24.00-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 25.05-23.60, targeting 26.05-26.50-27.25 and 28.20-28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.90¬-24.10
S2     23.60
S3     23.00-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.05
R2     26.50
R3     27.25-27.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US61.30/bbl, intraday low of US$57.28/bbl and settled up by 5.929% to close at US$60.79/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 59.25-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 60.50-61.40-62.00 and 62.55- 63.50-64.70. Sell in between 60.40-64.70 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 59.25-58.25-57.10 and 56.40-56.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.25-58.25
S2     57.10
S3     60.50-61.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.50-61.40
R2     62.00
R3     62.55-63.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.56 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1809/EUR, high of US$1.1851/EUR and settled the day down by 0.303% to close at US$1.1811/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1810-1.1705 with risk below 1.1700, targeting 1.1850-1.1905-1.1960 and 1.2015-1.2090-1.2150. Sell below 1.1850-1.2090 targeting 1.1925-1.1850-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2340.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1810-1.1760
S2     1.1705
S3     1.1650-1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1905
R2     1.1960
R3     1.2015-1.2090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1950 Sell
50-DMA   1.2046 Sell
100-DMA   1.2048 Sell
200-DMA   1.1852 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3673/GBP, high of US$1.3756/GBP and settled the day down by 0.436% to close at US$1.3689/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3700-1.3950 with targets at 1.3650-1.3600-1.3565 and 1.3520-1.3450-1.3390 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3650-1.3390 with targets 1.3700-1.3747-1.3800 and 1.3900-1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3650-1.3600
S2     1.3520
S3     1.3450-1.3390

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3700-1.3747
R2     1.3800
R3     1.3865-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3894 Buy
50-DMA   1.3825 Buy
100-DMA   1.3603 Buy
200-DMA   1.3239 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.60/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.12/USD and settled the day down by 2.12% at JPY108.88/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-107.50-106.90 and 106.10-105.60-105.00. Long positions above 108.50-106.00 with targets of 109.00-109.90 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-108.00
S2     107.50
S3     106.90-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.40
R2     109.90
R3     110.50-111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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