AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged lower in early European trading Friday, but remains near multi-month highs on the back of rising optimism about the U.S. economic recovery, helped by a strong rollout of coronavirus vaccines. The latest indication of the strength of the U.S. economic recovery came from Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data, which showed the number of people filing last week fell to a one-year low of 684,000 from the 781,000 claims filed during the previous week. Later in the session the final print of the University of Michigan sentiment reading for March is expected to tick up as stimulus checks arrive and the country starts to reopen. Other data, including personal spending and personal income in February, are due later in the day and could provide further hints about the U.S. economic strength. Another positive driver for the greenback has been the strong start to the U.S. vaccination program, especially compared with the European equivalent. President Joe Biden pledged on Thursday to double the U.S. vaccination rollout plan after reaching the previously set goal of 100 million shots 42 days ahead of schedule. EUR/USD was up 0.2% at 1.1787, close to lows last seen in November last year, with the single currency suffering due to renewed coronavirus lockdowns and the slow pace of vaccinations across the European Union even as the region’s leaders meet to try and improve the situation. Focus will turn to the release of the keenly-watched German business sentiment release later in the day, with the Ifo index expected to climb to 93.2 in March from 92.4 the previous month.
  • The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia but was still hovering near four-month highs as positive U.S. economic data, COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and rising Treasury yields all continued to cap the U.S. currency’s losses. The Antipodean risk currencies recovered from their losses earlier in the week and are likely to remain supported because of the two countries' success in limiting the economic fallout from COVID-19, according to some investors. The euro fell against the dollar to $1.1776, the strongest for the greenback since November 2020. Investor sentiment for the single currency has weakened thanks to fresh lockdowns and delays in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout across the continent. Although Germany releases its March Ifo Business Climate Index later in the day, which is expected to show improved business morale, it is unlikely to stop the euro’s fall. The slow vaccine rollout and disputes with the U.K. over vaccine exports remain dominant themes for now, according to other investors. There were warnings, however, against chasing the dollar higher from current levels from some corners over worries that the dollar’s gains over the past few weeks have been too rapid. Further data, including personal spending in February, is due later in the day and could provide further hints about the U.S. economic strength. President Joe Biden also pledged to double the U.S. vaccination rollout plan after reaching the previously set goal of 100 million shots 42 days ahead of schedule. Focus will turn to the release of the keenly-watched German business sentiment release later in the day, with the Ifo index expected to climb to 93.2 in March from 92.4 the previous month.
  • Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia and was set to record its first weekly decline in three as U.S. Treasury yields rose. The yellow metal has lost over 1% for the week, with the dollar surpassing a four-month high on Thursday before inching down a day later. Yields rose as there was lackluster demand during an auction of seven-year Treasury notes on Thursday. Some investors expressed concern that there could be another bond market sell-off within the next three months in light of the recent rout in financial markets. On the data side, U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to a one-year low of 684,000, down from the 781,000 claims filed during the previous week and the 730,000 claims in forecasts prepared by Investing.com. Further data, including personal spending in February, is due later in the day. Across the Atlantic, several countries in Europe entered COVID-19 restrictions to curb a third wave of cases. Germany, Europe's largest economy, abruptly reversed its plans for a strict Easter lockdown on Wednesday despite recording its biggest increase in COVID-19 cases since January 2021. In other precious metals, silver inched up 0.1%, holding above an over two-month low of $24.39 per ounce hit on Thursday. Palladium edged up 0.2% while platinum inched down 0.1%.
  • Oil prices reversed a sharp sell-off a day earlier to rise about 2% on Friday on mounting fears that it could take weeks to dislodge a giant container ship blocking the Suez Canal, which would squeeze supplies of crude and refined products. Prices, however, were still headed for a third consecutive weekly loss, with the outlook for demand dented by fresh coronavirus lockdowns in Europe. Both benchmarks were on track for a small weekly loss, following a more than 6% decline last week. The trapped container ship is blocking traffic in the Suez Canal, one of the world's busiest shipping channels for oil and refined fuels, grain and other trade between Asia and Europe. Officials stopped all ships entering the canal on Thursday, and a salvage company said the vessel may take weeks to free. Of the 39.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of total seaborne trade in crude in 2020, 1.74 million bpd went through the Suez Canal, according to tanker tracking firm Kpler. Additionally, 1.54 million bpd of refined oil products such as gasoline and diesel fuel flow through the canal, about 9% of global seaborne product trade, Kpler said. Reeling from the blockage in the Suez Canal, shipping rates for oil product tankers have nearly doubled this week, and several vessels were diverted away from the vital waterway as a giant container ship remained wedged between both banks. The oil markets were also lifted by worries over escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Yemen's Houthi forces on Friday said that they launched attacks a day earlier on Saudi Arabia targeting facilities owned by state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco (SE:2222) and military sites. Expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, will likely maintain their lower production also supported prices, Nissan (OTC:NSANY) Securities researcher Yasushi Osada said. The producer group is scheduled to meet on April 1 to decide on May supplies, and OPEC+ sources told Reuters they expected the producer group to broadly stick to current lower levels, as the outlook for demand has deteriorated due to new lockdowns in Europe. Acting a week ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has deepened crude oil supply cuts to Asian customers in June to 10%-15% from 5%-15% in May, several sources with knowledge of the matter said on Thursday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th March 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,730-1,742 1,751 1,764-1,776
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.05 26.50 27.25-27.65
Crude Oil 60.50-61.40 62.00 62.55-63.50
EURO/USD 1.1810-1.1850 1.1905 1.1960-1.2015
GBP/USD 1.3800-1.3865 1.3950 1.4010-1.3950
USD/JPY 109.50 109.90 110.50-111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th March 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,715 1,705 1,684-1,675
Silver-XAG 24.90¬-24.10 23.60 25.40-26.05
Crude Oil 59.25-58.25 57.10 56.40-56.00
EURO/USD 1.1760 1.1705 1.1650-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3747-1.3700 1.3650 1.3600-1.3520
USD/JPY 108.50-108.00 107.50 106.90-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (26th March 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1745.39/oz and low of US$1721.64/oz. Gold up 0.409% at US$1727.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1715-1643 with risk below 1643, targeting 1730-1743-1751 and 1764-1776-1787. Sell below 1743-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1700-1684-1675 and 1675-1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,715
S2     1,705
S3     1,684-1,675
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,730-1,742
R2     1,751
R3     1,764-1,776

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1787.56

Sell
100-DMA   1826.75 Sell
200-DMA   1858.71 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -14.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$25.17/oz and low of US$24.39/oz settled down by 0.187% at US$25.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.05-29.50 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 25.05-24.45 and 24.00-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 25.05-23.60, targeting 26.05-26.50-27.25 and 28.20-28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.90¬-24.10
S2     23.60
S3     25.40-26.05

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.05
R2     26.50
R3     27.25-27.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US60.82/bbl, intraday low of US$57.41/bbl and settled down by 4.08% to close at US$58.29/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 59.25-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 60.50-61.40-62.00 and 62.55- 63.50-64.70. Sell in between 60.40-64.70 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 59.25-58.25-57.10 and 56.40-56.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.25-58.25
S2     57.10
S3     56.40-56.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.50-61.40
R2     62.00
R3     62.55-63.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.56 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1761/EUR, high of US$1.1826/EUR and settled the day down by 0.381% to close at US$1.1767/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1760-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1810-1.1905-1.1960 and 1.2015-1.2090-1.2150. Sell below 1.1800-1.2090 targeting 1.1760-1.1705 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1760
S2     1.1705
S3     1.1650-1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1810-1.1850
R2     1.1905
R3     1.1960-1.2015

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1922 Sell
50-DMA   1.2032 Sell
100-DMA   1.2049 Sell
200-DMA   1.1857 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3669/GBP, high of US$1.3744/GBP and settled the day up by 0.336% to close at US$1.3735/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3800-1.3950 with targets at 1.3745-1.3700-1.3650 and 1.3600-1.3565- 1.3520 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3745-1.3520 with targets 1.3800-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3747-1.3700
S2     1.3650
S3     1.3600-1.3520

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3800-1.3865
R2     1.3950
R3     1.4010-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3872 Buy
50-DMA   1.3830 Buy
100-DMA   1.3618 Buy
200-DMA   1.3251 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY108.70/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.23/USD and settled the day up by 0.411% at JPY109.15/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.50-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-107.50-106.90 and 106.10-105.60-105.00. Long positions above 108.50-106.00 with targets of 109.00-109.90 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-108.00
S2     107.50
S3     106.90-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50
R2     109.90
R3     110.50-111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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