AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar climbed to a one-year high against the yen on Tuesday amid a spike in Treasury yields, as accelerating vaccinations and massive stimulus in the U.S. stoked inflation concerns. The safe-haven greenback also found support as investors worried about the potential fallout from the collapse of a hedge fund, identified as Archegos Capital, although those jitters had eased as the Asian trading day got under way. The dollar rose to a cusp of 110 yen in Asia, a level not seen since March of last year. It's on track for the best month since late 2016, with the end of Japan's fiscal year this month driving up dollar demand as companies seek to square their books. Higher yields make a currency more attractive as an investment. That climb in the shorter-dated yield will keep the dollar's upward momentum going, according to Chris Weston, the head of research at Pepperstone Markets Ltd, a foreign exchange broker based in Melbourne. The euro languished near the 4-1/2-month low of $1.1763 reached on Monday, on course to fall by the most this month since mid-2019. Tougher coronavirus curbs in France and Germany have dimmed the short-term outlook for the European economy, while a widening spread between U.S. and German bond yields are adding pressure on the single currency. The dollar index, also known by the code DXY, hovered near a 4-1/2-month high of 92.964 reached on Monday. The monthly U.S. non-farm payrolls report will be closely watched at the end of this week, with Federal Reserve policymakers so far citing slack in the labour market for their continued lower-for-longer stance on interest rates. However, "the market is in danger of pricing in too much inflation risk," meaning "we see scope for the USD to soften in the months ahead," the report said. President Joe Biden will outline on Wednesday how he would pay for a $3 trillion to $4 trillion plan to tackle America’s infrastructure needs. Biden said 90% of U.S. adults would be eligible for vaccination by April 19, and 90% of Americans would have a vaccination centre within five miles (8 km) of their homes by then, as his team ramps up its drive to get vaccine shots in people's arms amid a surge in COVID-19 cases. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin pushed back above $58,000 overnight after Visa Inc (NYSE:V) said it would allow the use of cryptocurrencies to settle transactions on its payment network, in the latest sign of growing acceptance of digital currencies on both Wall Street and Main Street.
  • The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia but reached a one-year high against the yen on Tuesday with climbing Treasury yields, the quickening U.S. COVID-19 vaccination rollout and massive U.S. stimulus measures all flaming inflation concerns. Investor worries about the market impact of Achegos Capital’s collapse also gave the safe-haven U.S. currency a boost, although worries seemed to have died down by the time Asian trading got underway on Tuesday. The dollar traded as high as 109.89 against the yen on Tuesday, its highest level since March 2020. Also helping the greenback on the path to its best month since 2016 is the dollar demand from Japan, as companies begin to square their books at the end of Japan’s fiscal year this week. In Europe, the short-term economic outlook became gloomier as France and Germany introduced tougher restrictive measures to curb a third wave of COVID-19 cases on the continent. Also applying pressure on the euro was the widening spread between U.S. and German bond yields. The euro remained near the four-and-a-half month low reached on Monday, with March 2021’s decline set to the biggest since mid-2019. On the data front, the U.S. employment report for March, including non-farm payrolls, will be released on Friday and closely watched for signs of economic recovery. The Federal Reserve has cited the labor market’s slow recovery from COVID-19 as a reason for its dovish stance on interest rates.
  • Oil was up Tuesday morning in Asia, as attention shifted from a container ship stuck in the Suez Canal to an Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) meeting later in the week. Traffic in one of the world’s busiest waterways resumed on Tuesday after tugs refloated the Ever Given, which had been stuck for almost a week. With the disruption from the blockage likely to prove minimal, investors are now focused on Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting, where the cartel will discuss output levels for May. The current strategy of keeping millions of barrels a day off the market has been largely successful over the past few months. Saudi Arabia has reportedly indicated that it will accept an extension of the production cuts through June, as well as prolonging voluntary unilateral cuts, as rising numbers of COVID-19 cases in Europe dampened fuel demand recovery hopes. Europe continues to struggle with a third wave of cases, prompting French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire to say, “all options are on the table” to protect the public. The number of global COVID-19 cases topped 127.58 million as of Mar. 30, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Also on the supply side, U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute is due later in the day. Ships were moving through the Suez Canal again on Tuesday after tugs refloated the giant Ever Given container carrier, which had been blocking a narrow section of the passage for almost a week, causing a huge build-up of vessels around the waterway. With the likelihood that the disruption will prove minimal, the market is turning its focus to Thursday's meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia in Vienna, collectively known as OPEC+. They will discuss whether to keep in place curbs on output that have kept millions of barrels a day off the market to support prices, a strategy that has largely worked in recent months. Saudi Arabia is prepared to accept an extension of the production cuts through June, and is also ready to prolong voluntary unilateral curbs amid the latest wave of coronavirus lockdowns, a source briefed on the matter said on Monday. More than 127.43 million people have been reported to be infected by the novel coronavirus globally, and the death toll is approaching 3 million, according to a Reuters tally. In Europe, rising numbers in a third wave of infections are alarming authorities, with France's Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire saying "all options are on the table" to protect the public.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th March 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,715-1,730 1,742 1,751-1,764
Silver-XAG 25.40-26.05 26.50 27.25-27.65
Crude Oil 62.00 62.55-63.50 64.45
EURO/USD 1.1810-1.1850 1.1905 1.1960-1.2015
GBP/USD 1.3800-1.3865 1.3950 1.4010-1.3950
USD/JPY 109.50 109.90 110.50-111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th March 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,705-1,684 1,675 1,660
Silver-XAG 24.90¬-24.10 23.60 23.00-22.50
Crude Oil 61.40-60.50 59.25 58.25-57.10
EURO/USD 1.1760 1.1705 1.1650-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3747-1.3700 1.3650 1.3600-1.3520
USD/JPY 108.50-108.00 107.50 106.90-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (30th March 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1745.39/oz and low of US$1721.64/oz. Gold down 1.00% at US$1727.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1705-1643 with risk below 1643, targeting 1715-1730-1743 and 1751-1764-1776. Sell below 1715-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1700-1684-1675 and 1675-1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,705-1,684
S2     1,675
S3     1,660
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,715-1,730
R2     1,742
R3     1,751-1,764

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1787.56

Sell
100-DMA   1826.75 Sell
200-DMA   1858.71 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -14.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$25.09/oz and low of US$24.43/oz settled down by 1.55% at US$24.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.05-29.50 with stop loss above 30.00; targeting 25.05-24.45 and 24.00-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 25.05-23.60, targeting 26.05-26.50-27.25 and 28.20-28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.90¬-24.10
S2     23.60
S3     23.00-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.40-26.05
R2     26.50
R3     27.25-27.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US61.73/bbl, intraday low of US$59.39/bbl and settled up by 2.31% to close at US$61.54/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 61.40-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 62.00-62.55-63.50 and 64.70-65.50. Sell in between 62.00-64.70 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 61.40-60.40-59.25 and 58.25-57.10-56.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     61.40-60.50
S2     59.25
S3     58.25-57.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.00
R2     62.55-63.50
R3     64.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.56 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1760/EUR, high of US$1.1736/EUR and settled the day down by 0.239% to close at US$1.1763/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1760-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1810-1.1905-1.1960 and 1.2015-1.2090-1.2150. Sell below 1.1800-1.2090 targeting 1.1760-1.1705 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1760
S2     1.1705
S3     1.1650-1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1810-1.1850
R2     1.1905
R3     1.1960-1.2015

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1922 Sell
50-DMA   1.2032 Sell
100-DMA   1.2049 Sell
200-DMA   1.1857 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3754/GBP, high of US$1.3846/GBP and settled the day down by % to close at US$1.3758/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3800-1.3950 with targets at 1.3745-1.3700-1.3650 and 1.3600-1.3565- 1.3520 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3745-1.3520 with targets 1.3800-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3747-1.3700
S2     1.3650
S3     1.3600-1.3520

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3800-1.3865
R2     1.3950
R3     1.4010-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3872 Buy
50-DMA   1.3830 Buy
100-DMA   1.3618 Buy
200-DMA   1.3251 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY109.76/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.83/USD and settled the day up by 0.0501% at JPY109.76/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.50-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-107.50-106.90 and 106.10-105.60-105.00. Long positions above 108.50-106.00 with targets of 109.00-109.90 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-108.00
S2     107.50
S3     106.90-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50
R2     109.90
R3     110.50-111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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