AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar steadied on Friday ahead of data from the United States that is expected to show an increase in job creation and a lower unemployment rate for March, as the the world's largest economy maintains a steady recovery from the pandemic. Sentiment for the dollar has improved in recent weeks, while Treasury yields have spiked, as the Biden administration's planned stimulus of over $2 trillion and a rapid COVID-19 vaccine roll out spurred economic optimism as well as inflation fears. While trading is likely to be muted on Friday with many financial markets shut for Easter holidays, analysts say the dollar's ascent to multi-month highs is likely to continue as more investors bet on economic recovery. U.S. nonfarm payrolls due later on Friday are forecast to have jumped by 647,000 in March from a 379,000 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 6.0% from 6.2%. The dollar index, a gauge of its value against six major currencies, stood at 92.862, on course for its third consecutive week of gains. Major currencies are not expected to move much on Friday with financial markets closed in Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Britain, Europe and the United States, analysts said. The dollar remained strong in early European trading Thursday, near multi-month highs amid expectations of strong U.S. economic growth, helped by more fiscal stimulus and an accelerating vaccine rollout. U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled his long awaited $2 trillion-plus infrastructure rebuilding plan on Wednesday, injecting more funds into the U.S. economy after his recently approved $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package. This comes with the U.S. economy already showing signs of a strong recovery as its aggressive vaccination program results in large parts of the country reopening. The ADP report on Wednesday showed U.S. private payrolls increased by 517,000 jobs last month, a precursor to Friday’s official employment report which is expected to show another increase of around 650,000 payrolls in March. A survey by the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday is expected to show a further improvement in the manufacturing activity. Large parts of Europe are struggling with a third wave of the Covid-19 virus, shutting down much of the region, resulting in Germany’s retail sales dropping 9.0% on the year in February. These findings contrast with those in an official survey, released Wednesday, which showed manufacturing activity grew at a stronger pace.
  • Gold brushed highs of just above $1,730 an ounce on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar continued their retreat from recent highs. Gold’s rally for a second straight day helped it rebound from its wrecking losses in two earlier sessions that dealt a severe setback to longs eyeing a return to $1,800 pricing. Gold had one of its best runs ever in mid-2020 when it rose from March lows of under $1,500 to reach a record high of nearly $2,100 by August, responding to inflationary concerns sparked by the first U.S. fiscal relief of $3 trillion approved for the coronavirus pandemic. Breakthroughs in vaccine development since November, along with optimism of economic recovery, forced gold to close 2020 trading at just below $1,900. Since the start of this year, the rut in the yellow metal has worsened despite the Biden administration issuing another Covid-19 relief of $1.9 trillion. The White House also unveiled on Wednesday President Joe Biden’s separate infrastructure spending plan for some $2 trillion. In spite of the dollar debasement expected from all these relief measures, the greenback has rallied so far at the expense of gold, which strayed near bear market territory at least twice this month when it lost 20% from its August record highs. Both the dollar and bond yields have surged this year on the argument that U.S. economic recovery from the pandemic could exceed expectations, leading to spiraling inflation as the Federal Reserve insists on keeping interest rates at near zero.
  • Crude prices swung from green to red and back on Thursday before settling up more than 2% as traders bought into OPEC+’s assurances that the global oil producing alliance could manage with higher output from May, despite questionable demand. Members of the 23-nation OPEC+, meeting via a two-day video hook-up, agreed to raise output by 350,000 barrels per day in May and June, and 400,000 bpd in July. Saudi Arabia was initially reported to be considering another 250,000 barrels per day of cuts in May, and 250,000 bpd in June, to provide continued support to the market. It terminated that idea after reaching a consensus with the other producers that an output hike may not be a bad thing after all, especially if demand for crude spiked in the coming months, allowing the kingdom greater market share. Since OPEC+ production cuts began a year ago, the Saudis have single-handedly led the reductions, conceivably allowing U.S. crude producers, who aren't a part of the alliance, to grow their oil exports at the expense of the kingdom. After weeks of remaining trapped at around 2.5 million bpd, U.S. crude exports jumped last week to 3.2 million bpd, data showed. U.S. oil production also rose last week to 11.1 million barrels daily, suggesting that American energy firms were responding positively to crude prices trading at $60 per barrel or more. A daily production of 11 million barrels or lower had been the norm for the United States over the past few months. The rise in U.S. crude production has been in tandem with the increase in the US oil rig count, as drillers put more rigs to work to extract additional supply. As of Friday, the rig count, which is a measure for future production, stood at 337. That was up 193, or 80%, from an August record low of 244. Iran, which officially remains under Trump-era sanctions banning exports of its oil, has also been shipping with immunity to China since President Joe Biden came into office in January, those with knowledge of the matter say. While Iran is a founding member of the original OPEC cartel, it has never contributed a single barrel to the production cuts of the past year due to the Trump sanctions. Its stepped up exports to China could thus be depriving other producers trying to legitimately grow their oil sales. Saudi Oil Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman seemed to acknowledge the weight of Iran’s role in the matter when he told reporters after the OPEC+ meeting that once Iran returns to pre-sanctions output, “we may remove the limit” on production. Whatever the case, the diverse factors in play sent oil prices all over the place on Thursday, with the market rallying more than $2 a barrel, after dropping nearly $1 earlier. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told the OPEC+ meeting that global oil demand was anticipated around 5.0- 5.5 million bpd this year. But while the alliance’s production cuts had slashed much of the Covid-19 related oil glut seen from March 2020, oil stocks remained above the 2015-2019 level, an OPEC+ document circulated at the meeting said. The rollout of coronavirus vaccines and supply curbs had underpinned the oil rally of the past four months. But that’s fraying now on concerns that near-term consumption was at risk, particularly in Europe where France has announced a new month-long lockdown. Mohammad Barkindo, secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pointed this week to the market’s recent volatility as “a reminder of the fragility facing economies and oil demand.”

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
2nd April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,730-1,742 1,755 1,770-1,790
Silver-XAG 25.60 26.05 26.50-27.25
Crude Oil 62.00 62.55 63.50-64.45
EURO/USD 1.1810-1.1850 1.1905 1.1960-1.2015
GBP/USD 1.3800-1.3865 1.3950 1.4010-1.3950
USD/JPY 109.50 109.90 110.50-111.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
2nd April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,715-1,705 1,690 1,684-1,675
Silver-XAG 24.90-23.90 23.55 23.00-22.50
Crude Oil 61.20-60.50 59.25 58.25-57.10
EURO/USD 1.1760 1.1705 1.1650-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3747-1.3700 1.3650 1.3600-1.3520
USD/JPY 108.50-108.00 107.50 106.90-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (2nd April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1715.19/oz and low of US$1677.81/oz. Gold up 1.336% at US$1707.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1715-1675 with risk below 1675, targeting 1730-1743 and 1751-1770-1776. Sell below 1730-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1715-1705-1684 and 1675-1675.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,715-1,705
S2     1,690
S3     1,684-1,675
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,730-1,742
R2     1,755
R3     1,770-1,790

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.752

Buy
20-DMA   1722.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1771.69

Sell
100-DMA   1815.22 Sell
200-DMA   1858.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -14.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$24.51/oz and low of US$23.73/oz settled up by 1.81% at US$24.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.90-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.90-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.90-23.90
S2     23.55
S3     23.00-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.60
R2     26.05
R3     26.50-27.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US61.14/bbl, intraday low of US$58.84/bbl and settled down by 1.68% to close at US$59.39/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 61.20-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 62.00-62.55 and 63.50-64.70-65.50. Sell in between 61.40-64.70 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 60.40-59.25 and 58.25-57.10-56.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     61.20-60.50
S2     59.25
S3     58.25-57.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.00
R2     62.55
R3     63.50-64.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.56 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1711/EUR, high of US$1.1779/EUR and settled the day up by 0.393% to close at US$1.1775/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1760-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1810-1.1905-1.1960 and 1.2015-1.2090-1.2150. Sell below 1.1800-1.2090 targeting 1.1760-1.1705 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1760
S2     1.1705
S3     1.1650-1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1810-1.1850
R2     1.1905
R3     1.1960-1.2015

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1922 Sell
50-DMA   1.2032 Sell
100-DMA   1.2049 Sell
200-DMA   1.1857 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3745/GBP, high of US$1.3835/GBP and settled the day down by 0.380% to close at US$1.3829/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3800-1.3950 with targets at 1.3745-1.3700-1.3650 and 1.3600-1.3565- 1.3520 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3745-1.3520 with targets 1.3800-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3570.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3747-1.3700
S2     1.3650
S3     1.3600-1.3520

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3800-1.3865
R2     1.3950
R3     1.4010-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3842 Buy
50-DMA   1.3844 Buy
100-DMA   1.3648 Buy
200-DMA   1.3285 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY109.76/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.83/USD and settled the day up by 0.0501% at JPY109.76/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.50-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-107.50-106.90 and 106.10-105.60-105.00. Long positions above 108.50-106.00 with targets of 109.00-109.90 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-108.00
S2     107.50
S3     106.90-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50
R2     109.90
R3     110.50-111.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING