AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar rose on Friday in thin trading, posting its third straight weekly gain, after data showed the world's largest economy created more jobs than expected in March, suggesting it is on a steady path to recovery from the pandemic. Financial markets are closed in Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Britain, and Europe in observance of the Good Friday holiday. Wall Street is also closed, while the U.S. bond and currency markets are open because Good Friday is not a U.S. government holiday. Friday's data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged 916,000 jobs last month, the largest gain since last August. Data for February was revised higher to show 468,000 jobs created instead of the previously reported 379,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 647,000 jobs in March. He added, though, that Treasury yields may take exception given tepid wage growth which is consistent with inflation remaining subdued. Sentiment for the dollar has improved in recent weeks, while Treasury yields have spiked, as the Biden administration's planned stimulus of more than $2 trillion and a rapid COVID-19 vaccine rollout spurred economic optimism as well as inflation fears. The dollar's ascent to multi-month highs is likely to continue as more investors bet on economic recovery.
  • It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with just 38 stats in focus in the week ending 9th April. In the week prior, 60 stats had been in focus. For the major markets, it is also shortened week, however, with Commonwealth and some European markets closed on Monday. Early in the week, private sector PMI numbers for March and February factory orders will be key. Expect the market’s preferred ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to be the key driver on Monday. The focus will then shift to jobless claims figures on Thursday. Following impressive NFP numbers last week, the markets may be forgiving of any further increase… Avoiding a return to 800k levels will be key, however. Wrapping things up at the end of the week will be wholesale inflation figures for March. Sensitivity towards inflation remains. A pickup in wholesale inflation would draw interest at the end of the week. On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes are due out on Wednesday. There shouldn’t be too many surprises. A FED Chair Powell speech on Thursday, will garner plenty of interest, however. It’s another busy week ahead on the economic data front. February unemployment figures for the Eurozone will be in focus. With a number of member states reintroducing lockdown measures, any positive numbers will likely have a muted impact on the EUR. On Wednesday, March service sector PMI numbers for Italy and Spain are due out. Finalized PMIs are also due out for France, Germany, and the Eurozone. While we would expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to draw the greatest interest, any marked revisions from France and Germany will also influence. In the 2nd half of the week, the German economy is in the spotlight. February factory orders, industrial production, and trade figures are due out on Thursday and Friday. Following impressive PMI numbers from Germany, the markets will be looking for positive data. On the monetary policy front, the ECB meeting minutes on Thursday will also draw interest. It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized composite and services PMI figures for March are due out on Wednesday. Expect any revision to the services PMI to influence. In the 2nd half of the week, construction PMI and house price figures for March are due out We don’t expect too much influence from these stats, however. It’s a relatively quiet week ahead. Caixin service sector PMI figures for March will be in focus on Tuesday. With the Chinese economy gathering momentum, the markets will be looking for a pickup in service sector activity. At the end of the week, inflation figures for March are due out. An easing in inflationary pressures could test support for riskier assets. U.S foreign policy and government spending plans remain key areas of focus for the markets. For the Eurozone, vaccination roll-outs and COVID-19 news updates will also be in focus in the week ahead.
  • Saudi Oil Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman spoke at length about supply and demand in trying to explain OPEC+’s decision this week to raise production. In the end, his U-turn from an almost definite extension of output cuts was partly due to something else he was at ill to discuss: Iran. The “elephant in the room” no one really wished to talk about, yet couldn’t ignore. That was Iran at Thursday’s meeting of the world oil producing alliance. It’s a position Tehran has gotten used to after more than two years of U.S. sanctions on its oil despite being a founding member of OPEC, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. It’s also a position that’s become increasingly untenable under President Joe Biden and his indifference to the sanctions imposed by his predecessor Donald Trump. Since coming to office in January, Biden has performed little more than lip service to Trump’s sanctions, allowing Iran - which once exported some of its oil secretly - to ramp up shipments now, almost entirely to China. Saudi Arabia’s position in the Iran affair is just as farcical. Despite being OPEC’s de facto head, the kingdom had not a word of objection to Trump ostracizing Iran within the same organization it helped found. Now, with Tehran’s exit from the situation looking imminent, Riyadh remains reticent, though it has been preparing for such an eventuality since Biden’s election win in November. As Oil Minister Abdulaziz answered reporters’ questions via streaming webcam on Thursday, Iran held a virtual meeting of its own with China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain. At Tehran’s desire, no U.S. representative was on the call, although the aim of the meeting was to determine the steps for restoring Iran’s 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers, including the United States, and removing the Trump sanctions. The talks will move to in-person discussions in Vienna next week, which again the United States will not attend but try to guide remotely. As of Thursday though, OPEC+ decided - for better or worse - that it was raising its production, regardless whether the Saudis were ready for it. After one year of output cuts, the 23-member OPEC+ - comprising the original 13 members of the Saudi-led OPEC and 10 other oil producing nations steered by Russia - will pump an additional 350,000 barrels per day in May and June, and a further 400,000 daily in July. Abdulaziz initially tried to persuade the alliance not to raise production. He cited continued dark clouds from Covid-19, particularly the risk to oil consumption in Europe, where France has instituted a month-long lockdown. As the one that contributes the lion’s share to all OPEC cuts, the Saudis typically have the final say on production. And while Abdulaziz didn’t harp on it, the recent volatility in oil prices was on everyone’s mind at OPEC+. U.S. crude and global oil benchmark Brent lost up to 7% a day at times over the past two weeks, despite OPEC+ continuing to keep at least 7 million barrels daily off the market.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,730-1,742 1,755 1,770-1,790
Silver-XAG 25.60 26.05 26.50-27.25
Crude Oil 62.00 62.55 63.50-64.45
EURO/USD 1.1810-1.1850 1.1905 1.1960-1.2015
GBP/USD 1.3865 1.3950 1.4010-1.3950
USD/JPY 111.00-111.70 112.20 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,715-1,705 1,690 1,684-1,675
Silver-XAG 24.90-23.90 23.55 23.00-22.50
Crude Oil 61.20-60.50 59.25 58.25-57.10
EURO/USD 1.1760 1.1705 1.1650-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3800-1.3747 1.3650-1.3600 1.3650-1.3600
USD/JPY 110.50-109.90 109.50 108.50-108.00

Intra-Day Strategy (5th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1730.47/oz and low of US$1705.68/oz. Gold up 1.25% at US$1728.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1715-1675 with risk below 1675, targeting 1730-1743 and 1751-1770-1776. Sell below 1730-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1715-1705-1684 and 1675-1675.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,715-1,705
S2     1,690
S3     1,684-1,675
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,730-1,742
R2     1,755
R3     1,770-1,790

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.752

Buy
20-DMA   1722.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1771.69

Sell
100-DMA   1815.22 Sell
200-DMA   1858.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -14.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.96/oz and low of US$24.23/oz settled up by 2.32% at US$24.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.90-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.90-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.90-23.90
S2     23.55
S3     23.00-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.60
R2     26.05
R3     26.50-27.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US61.71/bbl, intraday low of US$58.87/bbl and settled up by 3.02% to close at US$61.23/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 61.20-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 62.00-62.55 and 63.50-64.70-65.50. Sell in between 61.40-64.70 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 60.40-59.25 and 58.25-57.10-56.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     61.20-60.50
S2     59.25
S3     58.25-57.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.00
R2     62.55
R3     63.50-64.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.56 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1748/EUR, high of US$1.1785/EUR and settled the day down by 0.110% to close at US$1.1762/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1760-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1810-1.1905-1.1960 and 1.2015-1.2090-1.2150. Sell below 1.1800-1.2090 targeting 1.1760-1.1705 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1760
S2     1.1705
S3     1.1650-1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1810-1.1850
R2     1.1905
R3     1.1960-1.2015

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1922 Sell
50-DMA   1.2032 Sell
100-DMA   1.2049 Sell
200-DMA   1.1857 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3806/GBP, high of US$1.3851/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0325% to close at US$1.3834/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3865-1.3950 with targets at 1.3800-1.3745-1.3700 and 1.3650-1.3600-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3800-1.3520 with targets 1.3865-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3520.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3800-1.3747
S2     1.3650-1.3600
S3     1.3650-1.3600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3865
R2     1.3950
R3     1.4010-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3842 Buy
50-DMA   1.3844 Buy
100-DMA   1.3648 Buy
200-DMA   1.3285 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.67/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.74/USD and settled the day up by 0.0831% at JPY109.67/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.50-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-107.50-106.90 and 106.10-105.60-105.00. Long positions above 108.50-106.00 with targets of 109.00-109.90 and 110.50-111.00 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.50-109.90
S2     109.50
S3     108.50-108.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00-111.70
R2     112.20
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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