AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar fell sharply against its rivals Monday, paced by declining U.S. bond yields, but the pullback could be short-lived as the expected rise in rates has forced some on Wall Street to ease their bearish bets on the greenback. U.S. bond yields slipped, though the 10-year yields remained above 1.7% after data showed U.S. services activity hit its highest level since 1997. The drag on the greenback from lower yields, however, is unlikely to continue in the wake of the positive economic backdrop. The poor start to the week in the dollar did little to knock optimism on the greenback as its three-month win streak has forced some on Wall Street to rein in the bearish calls. Still, the road ahead for the greenback could be paved with uncertainty in the form of a potential rebound in the euro. France last week imposed a four-week lockdown including school closures from Saturday, while Italy extended restrictions as a third wave of Covid-19 sweeps across parts of the continent. Dollar Falls as U.S. Yields Slip, but Bearish Bets Easing Amid Recovery. The dollar dipped to one-week lows against a basket of currencies on Monday as stocks hit record highs, and as investors waited on the next catalyst to drive direction. The dollar has rebounded this year along with rising U.S. Treasury yields as investors bet on faster U.S. economic growth and higher inflation as the economy reopens after COVID-19-related business shutdowns. The greenback has generally risen at the same time as stocks gain. Investors are now watching to see if that relationship continues as it may indicate a shift in how the currency responds to improving risk appetite. The greenback had rallied on Friday after data showed that the U.S. economy created the most jobs in seven months in March as more Americans got vaccinated and the government doled out additional pandemic relief money, marking the start of what could be the strongest economic performance this year in nearly four decades. Trading volumes were light on Friday, however, with many traders out for the Good Friday holiday. Financial markets in Britain were also closed on Monday. Investors are also focused on U.S. President Joe Biden’s proposed infrastructure plan, which would involve raising corporate taxes to pay for the new spending. Biden would be willing to push through his $2 trillion infrastructure plan without the support of Republican lawmakers if he cannot reach a bipartisan deal, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Sunday.
  • Oil prices rose early on Tuesday as a drop in the U.S. dollar made crude a more attractive buy, paring losses of more than 4% incurred overnight on the prospect of producers returning more than 2 million barrels per day of supply to the market by July. The dollar fell 0.4% against a basket of currencies on Monday and dipped a bit further on Tuesday. Oil prices typically rise against a falling dollar, as a weaker greenback makes dollar-priced oil cheaper for those holding other currencies. Adding to positive sentiment, England is set to ease coronavirus pandemic restrictions on April 12, with the opening of businesses including all shops, gyms, hair salons and outdoor hospitality areas. That helped offset worries about the agreement last week by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, known as OPEC+, to bring back 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in May, another 350,000 bpd in June and a further 400,000 bpd or so in July. Saudi Arabia is also set to phase out its extra voluntary cut of 1 million bpd over those three months. At the same time OPEC member Iran, exempt from making voluntary cuts, is boosting supply. [OPEC/O] The push by OPEC+ to add supply came despite concerns about a rise in COVID-19 cases. For better or worse, the world’s oil producers decided last week to defy Saudi Arabia and push for higher output over the next three months. After patting them on the back — even rewarding them — the market is now saying it was definitely for the worse. Crude prices fell more than 4% on Monday, reversing the pre-Good Friday rally, as traders frowned upon the decision by OPEC+ to put to rest its year-long production cuts on the assumption of increasing summer demand for oil. The 23-member OPEC+ —comprising the original 13 members of the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 10 other oil producing nations steered by Russia — said on Thursday it will pump an additional 350,000 barrels per day in May and June, and a further 400,000 daily in July. Saudi Arabia initially did not want an output hike, but gave in to pressure from the rest in the cartel. While the announcement was greeted by a friendly market at that time, it was viewed with a different lens on Monday due to stubborn coronavirus situations outside the United States Latest reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic showed the U.K. variant of the virus continuing to scorch parts of Europe — with Poland experiencing 60 times more cases than a year ago. India, meanwhile, saw a record of more than 100,000 infections daily over the weekend. Europe, as a region, is one of the single largest consumers of oil while India itself is the third largest crude buyer. Crude prices also came under pressure as Iran opened talks with global powers in Vienna to find a way to end the two-year-old U.S. sanctions on its oil imposed by the former Trump administration. The White House, now under President Joseph Biden, is agreeable to ending the sanctions, provided Tehran shows proof that its nuclear program isn’t capable of producing an atomic bomb. Iran is, however, demanding the sanctions be removed first before it makes such concessions. The standoff between the two sides — with U.S. officials not even attending the talks in person at Iran’s insistence and using intermediaries from other world powers to press Tehran — indicates that an agreement won’t be done too soon. While that should be positive for oil prices, the problem for the market is Iran has been violating the sanctions for some time, selling oil secretly to China, even when Trump was in office. Since the current administration took office in January, Iran has become much bolder with the violations, as Biden has been paying lip service more than anything to Trump's sanctions. Even if Iran doesn’t get a deal to drop the sanctions right away, it will continue adding oil to the market — on top of the OPEC+ supply hike that will come on from May. That’s what's really worrying the market now.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
6th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,742 1,755 1,770-1,790
Silver-XAG 25.60 26.05 26.50-27.25
Crude Oil 59.25-60.50 61.25 62.00-62.55
EURO/USD 1.1850 1.1905 1.1960-1.2015
GBP/USD 1.3900 1.3950 1.4010-1.3950
USD/JPY 111.00-111.70 112.20 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
6th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,730-1,715 1,705 1,690-1,684
Silver-XAG 24.70-23.90 23.55 23.00-22.50
Crude Oil 58.25-57.20 56.50 55.90-54.00
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1760 1.1705 1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3800-1.3747 1.3700 1.3900
USD/JPY 109.90 109.50 108.50-108.00

Intra-Day Strategy (6th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1733.46/oz and low of US$1721.20/oz. Gold up 0.0121% at US$1727.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1730-1675 with risk below 1675, targeting 1743-1751 and 1770-1776. Sell below 1740-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1715-1705-1684 and 1675-1675.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,730-1,715
S2     1,705
S3     1,690-1,684
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,742
R2     1,755
R3     1,770-1,790

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$25.06/oz and low of US$24.60/oz settled down by 0.3646% at US$24.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.70-23.90
S2     23.55
S3     23.00-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.60
R2     26.05
R3     26.50-27.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US61.38/bbl, intraday low of US$58.63/bbl and settled down by 4.23% to close at US$58.75/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.25-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 59.25-60.50-61.25 and 62.00-62.55-63.50. Sell in between 58.25-54.70 with stop loss at 54.00; targeting 58.25-57.10-56.40 and 55.90-54.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.25-57.20
S2     56.50
S3     55.90-54.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.25-60.50
R2     61.25
R3     62.00-62.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   447.1687.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.56 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1737/EUR, high of US$1.1818/EUR and settled the day up by 0.472% to close at US$1.1811/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1800-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1850-1.1905-1.1960 and 1.2015-1.2090-1.2150. Sell below 1.1820-1.2090 targeting 1.1760-1.1705 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1760
S2     1.1705
S3     1.1850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850
R2     1.1905
R3     1.1960-1.2015

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1922 Sell
50-DMA   1.2032 Sell
100-DMA   1.2049 Sell
200-DMA   1.1857 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3811/GBP, high of US$1.3912/GBP and settled the day up by 0.529% to close at US$1.3895/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3900-1.3950 with targets at 1.3800-1.3745-1.3700 and 1.3650-1.3600-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3800-1.3520 with targets 1.3865-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3520.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3800-1.3747
S2     1.3700
S3     1.3900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3900
R2     1.3950
R3     1.4010-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3842 Buy
50-DMA   1.3844 Buy
100-DMA   1.3648 Buy
200-DMA   1.3285 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY109.95/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.74/USD and settled the day down by 0.422% at JPY110.15/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 110.50-109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.90
S2     109.50
S3     108.50-108.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.00-111.70
R2     112.20
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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