AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trading Tuesday, with traders retaining a largely positive tone on the back of signs of strong U.S. economic growth and an impressive vaccine rollout. Germany announced plans Monday to have 20% of its population immunized against the novel coronavirus by the beginning of May, but that would still put the European Union’s largest country way behind the U.S. in percentage terms. Additionally, while the European Union faces recession given the lockdowns associated with the third wave of the Covid-19 virus, the data coming out of the U.S. points to a sharp economic recovery, with the Institute for Supply Management services index surging on Monday, following on from Friday’s stellar jobs report. U.S. job openings for February are released Tuesday at 10 AM ET (1400 GMT), with analysts tracked by Investing.com expecting a reading of 6.99 million, which would be up from 6.917 million the prior month. The one part of Europe that is showing some life is the U.K., with England confirming on Monday plans to reopen the likes of hairdressers, gyms and pubs/restaurants to outside seating from next week. The U.K. saw some healthy revisions to its fourth quarter 2020 GDP growth data late last week, to 1.3% quarter on quarter from 1.0%, said. ING. “This should continue to support GBP on a relative basis, with EUR/GBP remaining pressured near 0.8500.” The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 54.3, the highest since December, from 51.5 in February, well above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.
  • The dollar softened to a two-week low against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after U.S. bond yields declined as traders rolled back aggressive expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten its policy earlier than pledged. The euro rallied to a two-week high of $1.18785 and last stood at $1.1871. The common currency jumped almost a pence against the British pound overnight to trade at 85.90 pence, its biggest gain since Dec. 10. The dollar changed hands at 109.77 yen, extending its retreat from a one-year high of 110.97 touched a week ago. The dollar's decline came as investors recalibrated their expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten its policy earlier than it has suggested. Financial markets have expected accelerating U.S. economic growth and inflation could force the Fed to abandon its pledge earlier, with interest rate futures pricing in a rate hike as early as late 2022 earlier this week The five-year Treasury yield is now seen as a major barometer of how much faith investors have in the Federal Reserve's pledge that it does not expect to raise interest rates until 2024. Traders saw the dollar's retreat as a correction after its rally last month. In particular, against the yen, the dollar made its biggest monthly gains in more than four years in March, rising almost 4% Elsewhere the Australian dollar held firm near two-week high against the dollar at $0.7661 while the British pound slipped to $1.3830 from Tuesday's two-week high of $1.3910.
  • Oil was up Wednesday morning in Asia, inching up over prospects for stronger global economic growth as the COVID-19 vaccine rollout widens and crude oil inventories in the U.S., the biggest fuel consumer globally, fell. Fuel demand recovery hopes were bolstered after February’s U.S. JOLTs job openings report, released on Tuesday, showed that vacancies rose to a two-year high of 7.367 million. The report also said that hiring also recorded its biggest gain in nine months. The data follows China’s Caixin services Purchasing Managers Index, whose March reading was 54.3. Chinese inflation data, including the Consumer Price and Producer Price indexes, is due on Friday. The IMF also said that global growth of 6% in 2021 could be attainable as it opened its 2021 spring meetings on Apr. 5. The figure is the strongest expansion in at least four decades, and attributable to unprecedented public spending to fight COVID-19, primarily by the U.S. The meetings, co-hosted with the World Bank, will continue virtually until Apr. 11 Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden moved up the COVID-19 vaccine eligibility target for all American adults to Apr. 19, widening the vaccine rollout and further boosting fuel demand recovery hopes. On the supply front, U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a draw of 2.618 million barrels for the week ending Apr. 2. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com predicted a 1.325-million-barrel draw, while a 3.91-million-barrel build was reported during the previous week. U.S. oil production is also forecast to fall by 270,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.04 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday. The forecast is a steeper decline than the previous monthly forecast for a drop of 160,000 bpd. Crude oil supply data from the EIA is due later in the day. Meanwhile, Iran held 'constructive' talks with world powers on Tuesday, where it agreed to form working groups to discuss potentially reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. The revival could lead to the U.S. lifting sanctions on Iran's energy sector, in turn increasing the global oil supply.
  • Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday on the prospects for stronger global economic growth amid increased COVID-19 vaccinations and a report that crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest fuel consumer, fell. Prices were buoyed as data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings rose to a two-year high in February while hiring picked up. This followed earlier data showing U.S. services activity touching a record high in March and China's service sector showing the sharpest increase in sales in three months. The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday unprecedented public spending to fight COVID-19, primarily by the United States, would push global growth to 6% this year, a rate unseen since the 1970s. Optimism on a wider rollout of vaccines also boosted prices with U.S. President Joe Biden moving up the COVID-19 vaccine eligibility target for all American adults to April 19. U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell in the most recent week, while fuel inventories rose, according to three market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures ahead of government data on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels in the week ended April 2, the sources said, citing the API data. Forecasters had predicted a drop of just 1.4 million barrels. Oil production in the U.S. is expected to fall by 270,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.04 million bpd, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday, a steeper decline than its previous monthly forecast for a drop of 160,000 bpd. Iran and world powers held what they described as "constructive" talks on Tuesday and agreed to form working groups to discuss potentially reviving the 2015 nuclear deal that could lead to Washington lifting sanctions on Iran's energy sector and increasing oil supply.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,742 1,755 1,770-1,790
Silver-XAG 25.60 26.05 26.50-27.25
Crude Oil 59.25-60.50 61.25 62.00-62.55
EURO/USD 1.1905-1.1960 1.2015 1.2100-1.2150
GBP/USD 1.3860-1.3900 1.3950 1.4010-1.4080
USD/JPY 110.00-111.00 111.70 112.20-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,730-1,715 1,705 1,690-1,684
Silver-XAG 24.70-23.90 23.55 23.00-22.50
Crude Oil 58.25-57.20 56.50 55.90-54.00
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1800 1.1760 1.1905-1.1960
GBP/USD 1.3800-1.3747 1.3700 1.3650-1.3600
USD/JPY 109.45-109.00 108.50 108.00-107.35

Intra-Day Strategy (7th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1745.35/oz and low of US$1727.13/oz. Gold up 0.844% at US$1742.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1730-1675 with risk below 1675, targeting 1743-1751 and 1770-1776. Sell below 1740-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1715-1705-1684 and 1675-1675.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,730-1,715
S2     1,705
S3     1,690-1,684
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,742
R2     1,755
R3     1,770-1,790

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$25.28/oz and low of US$24.75/oz settled up by 1.089% at US$25.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.70-23.90
S2     23.55
S3     23.00-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.60
R2     26.05
R3     26.50-27.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US60.86/bbl, intraday low of US$58.61/bbl and settled up by 0.635% to close at US$59.18/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.25-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 59.25-60.50-61.25 and 62.00-62.55-63.50. Sell in between 58.25-54.70 with stop loss at 54.00; targeting 58.25-57.10-56.40 and 55.90-54.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.25-57.20
S2     56.50
S3     55.90-54.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.25-60.50
R2     61.25
R3     62.00-62.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.56 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1794/EUR, high of US$1.1876/EUR and settled the day up by 0.520% to close at US$1.1873/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1850-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1905-1.1960 and 1.2015-1.2090-1.2150. Sell below 1.1905-1.2090 targeting 1.1760-1.1705 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1850-1.1800
S2     1.1760
S3     1.1905-1.1960

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1905-1.1960
R2     1.2015
R3     1.2100-1.2150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1922 Sell
50-DMA   1.2032 Sell
100-DMA   1.2049 Sell
200-DMA   1.1857 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3801/GBP, high of US$1.3917/GBP and settled the day down by 0.535% to close at US$1.3820/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3900-1.4080 with targets at 1.3800-1.3745-1.3700 and 1.3650-1.3600-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3860-1.3520 with targets 1.3865-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3520.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3800-1.3747
S2     1.3700
S3     1.3650-1.3600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3860-1.3900
R2     1.3950
R3     1.4010-1.4080

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3842 Buy
50-DMA   1.3844 Buy
100-DMA   1.3648 Buy
200-DMA   1.3285 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.66/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.54/USD and settled the day down by 0.394% at JPY109.72/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 110.50-109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.45-109.00
S2     108.50
S3     108.00-107.35

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-111.00
R2     111.70
R3     112.20-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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