AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trading Monday, but still traded near 2-1/2-week lows as the recent decline in Treasury yields undercut support for it. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell continued the mantra Sunday that near-term price pressures will prove transitory, and the central bank’s ultra-easy monetary policies were here to stay. He added the U.S. economy is at an "inflection point" with expectations that growth and hiring will pick up speed in the months ahead, but also noted risks that a hasty reopening could lead to a continued increase in coronavirus cases. This insistence that monetary support is not going to disappear shortly has resulted in the greenback and bond yields weakening after scaling multi-month peaks at the end of last month, powered by expectations the Fed would have to move as an accelerating U.S. recovery from the pandemic lifts inflation faster than expected. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.65%, considerably below the more than one-year high of over 1.77% seen at the end of March, even after Friday’s stronger-than-expected producer price data. More U.S. data will be released during the week, including the consumer price index on Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, and retail sales as well as industrial production data on Thursday. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired the head of the central bank late last month after he lifted interest rates sharply to protect the currency. The new governor, Sahap Kavcioglu, has pledged to deliver price stability, but it’s difficult to see how he can achieve this with Erdogan expecting interest rates to head lower at some point. During the lira’s last bout of weakness last year, Turkey spent more than $100 billion of foreign reserves to support the currency, according to a report by Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), and thus the current account data will be studied carefully Indian CPI and industrial production data, due late Monday, will be studied carefully to gauge the impact on the country.
  • The dollar languished near 2-1/2-week lows against major peers on Monday as a decline in Treasury yields restrained the U.S. currency. The British pound sank toward a two-month low, continuing its decline from a nearly three-year high reached in February, with analysts pointing to blood clot concerns around the AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) vaccine, which the U.K. has relied heavily on for its aggressive vaccination program. Both the dollar and Treasury yields are taking something of a breather after scaling multi-month peaks at the end of last month, powered by bets that an accelerating U.S. recovery from the pandemic will lift inflation faster than Federal Reserve policymakers anticipate While the Fed's repeated insistence that near-term price pressures will prove transitory has soothed investors this month, the dollar firmed on Friday following stronger-than-expected producer price data, taking the edge off the currency's worst week this year. Data on Friday showed the largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years for U.S. producer prices, backing expectations for higher inflation as the economy reopens amid an improved public health environment and massive government funding U.S. consumer price data will be released Tuesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on Wednesday at the Economic Club of Washington. In an interview on Sunday on CBS's "60 Minutes," Powell said the U.S. economy is at an "inflection point" with expectations that growth and hiring will pick up speed in the months ahead, but he also warned of risks stemming from a hasty reopening. Against the euro, the dollar hovered near the lowest since March 23 at $1.1901. It bought 109.66 yen, close to a two-week low below 109 reached on Thursday Miners have not been selling recently minted tokens at a time of greater demand from corporations and investors, according to Justin d'Anethan, sales manager at digital asset company Diginex in Hong Kong. The U.S. Federal Reserve has sought to calm these fears, insisting that any near-term price pressures are transitory. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy is at an "inflection point" with expectations that growth and hiring will pick up speed in the months ahead in an interview on Saturday, but also warned of risks stemming from a hasty reopening. Powell will also speak on Wednesday at the Economic Club of Washington.
  • Oil was down Monday morning in Asia, with U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell saying the U.S. economy was poised for stronger growth while also cautioning that COVID-19 remains a threat. The economy is at an “inflection point” with stronger growth and hiring ahead thanks to the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and powerful policy support, Powell said in an interview. However, he also added that the principal risk was the ever-spreading COVID-19 virus, with India hit with a second wave of cases and Europe still struggling through its third wave. The virus outbreaks led some countries to renew restrictive measures and dented the black liquid’s strong start to 2021 as fuel demand recovery fears also resurfaced. On the supply side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) is set to add more barrels from May onwards. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has also said that the increase is the right move for the cartel. As discussions continue to resuscitate a 2015 nuclear accord, Iran remains a wildcard for the market. The talks between the OPEC producer and other powers will continue after the first round concluded during the previous week. Saudi Arabia will supply all the crude oil that was requested by India’s state-owned refiners and at least four other Asian customers next month as the linchpin producer starts to ramp up output. The kingdom will deliver in full what most of the refiners asked for in May-loading cargoes, while one of the customers got its volume to the U.S. curtailed, according to officials notified by Saudi Aramco (SE:2222). Two other customers received some cuts to overall volumes. An email sent to the producer’s press relations office wasn’t immediately answered outside regular office hours. Led by Saudi Arabia, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will restore from May some of the supply that was cut back as the pandemic ravaged demand. Following that decision, the Saudis hiked pricing for the key Asian market in expectation that consumption will rebound further. The overall plan, which includes Riyadh’s return of a unilateral supply cut, was defended last week by Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. With tension between India and Saudi Arabia over Riyadh’s oil policy, its state-owned processors had asked to reduce next month’s volumes by about one-third of their monthly average. However, India’s refiners are in peak maintenance season and the nation is battling a resurgence in Covid-19, potentially indicating the amount needed for the month is below average. Meanwhile, the volume of Arab Light crude was reduced for two other buyers in the region and a third customer got its supply for Asia fulfilled but was notified of some cuts to its U.S. operations.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,750-1,762 1,770 1,790-1,810
Silver-XAG 25.60 26.05 26.50-27.25
Crude Oil 59.25-60.50 61.25 62.00-62.55
EURO/USD 1.1905 1.1960 1.2015-1.2100
GBP/USD 1.3747-1.3800 1.3860 1.3900-1.3950
USD/JPY 110.00-111.00 111.70 112.20-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,730-1,715 1,705 1,690-1,684
Silver-XAG 24.70-23.90 23.55 23.00-22.50
Crude Oil 58.25-57.20 56.50 55.90-54.00
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1800 1.1760 1.1705-1.1650
GBP/USD 1.3700-1.3650 1.3700-1.3650 1.3600
USD/JPY 108.50 108.50 108.00-107.35

Intra-Day Strategy (12th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1757.26/oz and low of US$1731.04/oz. Gold down 0.642% at US$1743.65/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1730-1675 with risk below 1675, targeting 1743-1751 and 1770-1776. Sell below 1750-1776 keeping stop loss clBased on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1730-1675 with risk below 1675, targeting 1743-1751 and 1770-1776. Sell below 1750-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1730-1715-1705 and 1684-1675.osing above 1776, targeting 1730-1715-1705 and 1684-1675.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,730-1,715
S2     1,705
S3     1,690-1,684
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,750-1,762
R2     1,770
R3     1,790-1,810

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$25.48/oz and low of US$24.97/oz settled down by 0.821% at US$25.24/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US59.92/bbl, intraday low of US$59.10/bbl and settled down by 0.694% to close at US$59.10/bbl and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.70-23.90
S2     23.55
S3     23.00-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.60
R2     26.05
R3     26.50-27.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US59.92/bbl, intraday low of US$59.10/bbl and settled down by 0.694% to close at US$59.10/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.25-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 59.25-60.50-61.25 and 62.00-62.55-63.50. Sell in between 58.25-54.70 with stop loss at 54.00; targeting 58.25-57.10-56.40 and 55.90-54.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.25-57.20
S2     56.50
S3     55.90-54.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.25-60.50
R2     61.25
R3     62.00-62.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.56 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1866/EUR, high of US$1.1919/EUR and settled the day down by 0.115% to closEUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1866/EUR, high of US$1.1919/EUR and settled the day down by 0.115% to close at US$1.1898/EUR.e at US$1.1898/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1850-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1905-1.1960 and 1.2015-1.2090-1.2150. Sell below 1.1850-1.2090 targeting 1.1800-1.1760-1.1705 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1850-1.1800
S2     1.1760
S3     1.1705-1.1650

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1905
R2     1.1960
R3     1.2015-1.2100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1922 Sell
50-DMA   1.2032 Sell
100-DMA   1.2049 Sell
200-DMA   1.1857 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3669/GBP, high of US$1.3749/GBP and settled the day down by 0GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3669/GBP, high of US$1.3749/GBP and settled the day down by 0.161% to close at US$1.3703/GBP..161% to close at US$1.3703/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3740-1.4080 with targets at 1.3700-1.3650 and 1.3600-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3700-1.3520 with targets 1.3865-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3520.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3700-1.3650
S2     1.3700-1.3650
S3     1.3600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3747-1.3800
R2     1.3860
R3     1.3900-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3672 Buy
200-DMA   1.3314 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY109.17/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.935/USD and settled the day up by 0.385% at JPY109.65/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 110.50-109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50
S2     108.50
S3     108.00-107.35

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-111.00
R2     111.70
R3     112.20-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   77.407 Buy
20-DMA   106.48 Sell
50-DMA   105.01 Sell
100-DMA   104.61 Sell
200-DMA   105.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.025 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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