AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trading Tuesday, helped by rising Treasury yields, but gains have been limited ahead of the release of key U.S. inflation data. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note has gained by about 2 basis points to just above 1.69% early Tuesday, after the Treasury auctioned $38 billion of 10-year paper on Monday, although this is still well below the 1.78% level hit on March 30, which was the highest in over one year. The greenback has eased back along with U.S. yields this month after surging to multi-month peaks on expectations that massive fiscal stimulus and a robust economic recovery will spur prompt the Fed to tighten faster than it is currently guiding. However, Fed officials have repeatedly stated that the central bank sees any near-term price pressures as transitory, and the central bank will want to see concrete improvements in inflation in employment before it tightens policy. However, it appears the inflation rate (and employment levels) aren’t the only data the Federal Reserve is looking at as a judge as to when to start tightening its accommodative monetary stance. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Monday that getting three-quarters of Americans vaccinated would be a signal that the Covid-19 crisis was ending, a necessary condition for the central bank to consider tapering its bond-buying program. Just over a fifth of Americans are currently fully vaccinated, but worryingly the United States reported an 8% rise in new Covid-19 cases last week, the fourth week in a row that infections have increased, according to Reuters data. There are speeches later from the Federal Reserve's Mary Daly, Esther George, Patrick Harker and Raphael Bostic. This was slightly below the expected growth of 0.6%, but the fall in gross domestic product in January was not as severe as previously estimated, down by 2.2% compared with the initial reading of a 2.9% drop.
  • The dollar edged higher on Tuesday, helped by a pick-up in U.S. Treasury yields, but was still near three-week lows as markets waited for inflation data in the United States. The dollar has fallen so far in April, after surging in the first three months of 2021 on expectations that a combination of monetary stimulus and government spending would cause inflation to spike. U.S. CPI data for March is due at 1330 GMT and is expected to show a rise in inflation to 2.4%. Market participants will also be paying attention to how yields react to a 30-year Treasury auction. ING strategists wrote in a note to clients that higher inflation would support higher U.S. yields, which could in turn cause the dollar to outperform lower-yielding currencies such as the yen, Swiss franc and euro. The inflation data "should further fuel the narrative that the U.S. economy is starting to overheat and are to likely add to concerns that the Fed's firmly dovish message will be increasingly challenged," ING said Overnight data showed China's exports rose in March, with import growth rising to four-year highs, signalling an improvement in global demand.
  • The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, but near a three-week low as investors await the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for March, due later in the day. Chinese trade data released earlier in the day said that exports grew 49% year-on-year in March. Imports grew 38.1% year-on-year and the trade balance stood at USD116.35 billion. U.S. Treasuries slowly climbed up on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year note yield at 1.6764%. Auctions of three- and 10-year notes on Monday saw decent demand, while 30-year notes will go under the hammer later in the day. Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren also said on Monday that the U.S. economy could see a significant rebound in 2021 thanks to accommodative monetary and fiscal policy, though the labor market still has much room for improvement.
  • Gold was down on Tuesday morning in Asia as U.S. Treasury yields firmed. Increasing hopes of a quick economic recovery from COVID-19 also turned investors away from the safe-haven yellow metal. Treasury yields stayed marginally higher after an auction of three- and 10-year notes on Tuesday attracted decent demand, with 30-year notes to be auctioned later in the day. Meanwhile, data and comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve served to increase recovery hopes higher. A survey published on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that U.S. consumers raised their inflation expectations again in March following gradual increases in recent months, and they are more positive about the job market. Meanwhile, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said in an interview on Monday that the U.S. economy could see a substantial turnaround in 2021 thanks to accommodative monetary and fiscal policy. However, he added that the job market still has a lot of space for growth. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak at an Economic Club of Washington event on Wednesday, and the central bank will release its Beige Book on the same day. Also on the data front, the U.S. consumer price index for March will be released later in the day. Retail sales as well as industrial production data will follow on Thursday. In other precious metals, silver fell 0.6%, palladium inched down 0.1% and platinum slipped 0.6%.
  • Oil was up Tuesday morning in Asia, with investors continuing to assess the impact of an uneven economic recovery from COVID-19 on fuel demand alongside a potential increase in supply India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, continues to see record numbers of COVID-19 cases and other countries remain under restrictive measures as the number of cases rises. Despite successful COVID-19 vaccine rollouts leading to higher fuel consumption in some areas, the pandemic "is a long way from over,” World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned on Monday. Worries about global crude oil output, and a potential supply glut, also capped the black liquid’s gains. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) is widely expected to increase its output, even amid the uncertain economic recovery, when it eases current output curbs from May onwards. Investors are also bracing for the U.S. to potentially increase supply. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that oil production from the Permian Basin, the most prolific U.S. shale patch, will expand to about 4.47 million barrels a day, a level not seen since the start of COVID-19, in May. Investors now await U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day. EIA supply data is set to follow a day later.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,730-1,750 1,762 1,770-1,790
Silver-XAG 25.60 26.05 26.50-27.25
Crude Oil 60.50 61.25 62.00-62.55
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1905 1.1960 1.2015-1.2100
GBP/USD 1.3800 1.3860 1.3900-1.3950
USD/JPY 110.00-111.00 111.70 112.20-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,715 1,705 1,690-1,684
Silver-XAG 24.70-23.90 23.55 23.00-22.50
Crude Oil 59.25-58.25 57.20 56.50-55.90
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1760 1.1705 1.1650-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3747-1.3700 1.3600-1.3560 1.3600-1.3560
USD/JPY 109.00-108.50 108.00 107.35-106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (13th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1744.92/oz and low of US$1727.32/oz. Gold down 0.592% at US$1732.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1715-1675 with risk below 1675, targeting 1743-1751 and 1770-1776. Sell below 1730-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1730-1715-1705 and 1684-1675.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,715
S2     1,705
S3     1,690-1,684
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,730-1,750
R2     1,762
R3     1,770-1,790

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$25.26/oz and low of US$24.69/oz settled down by 1.657% at US$24.80/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.70-23.90
S2     23.55
S3     23.00-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.60
R2     26.05
R3     26.50-27.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 59.25-58.25 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on made an intra‐day high of US59.92/bbl, intraday low of US$59.10/bbl and settled down by 0.694% to close at US$59.10/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 59.25-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 60.50-61.25 and 62.00-62.55-63.50. Sell in between 60.50-62.55 with stop loss at 62.55; targeting 59.00-58.25-57.10 and 56.40-55.90-54.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.25-58.25
S2     57.20
S3     56.50-55.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.50
R2     61.25
R3     62.00-62.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.56 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1870/EUR, high of US$1.1918/EUR and settled the day up by 0.168% to close at US$1.1909/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1800-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1850-1.1905-1.1960 and 1.2015-1.2090-1.2150. Sell below 1.1850-1.2090 targeting 1.1800-1.1760-1.1705 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1760
S2     1.1705
S3     1.1650-1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1905
R2     1.1960
R3     1.2015-1.2100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3668/GBP, high of US$1.3775/GBP and settled the day up by 0.248% to close at US$1.3735/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3800-1.4080 with targets at 1.3750-1.3700-1.3650 and 1.3600-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3750-1.3520 with targets 1.3865-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3520.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3747-1.3700
S2     1.3600-1.3560
S3     1.3600-1.3560

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3800
R2     1.3860
R3     1.3900-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3672 Buy
200-DMA   1.3314 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY109.24/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.76/USD and settled the day down by 0.318% at JPY109.37/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.00-108.50
S2     108.00
S3     107.35-106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-111.00
R2     111.70
R3     112.20-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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