AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar weakened in early European trading Wednesday, pushed down to three-week lows by falling bond yields after the rise in U.S. inflation in March wasn’t deemed sufficient to change Federal Reserve thinking. The U.S. consumer price index jumped 0.6% in March versus the previous month, the largest gain since August 2012, and rose 2.6% from a year earlier, both 0.1 percentage points above market expectations. While these figures were above consensus expectations, there were some in the market that expected a sharper rise in inflation given the extent of pent up demand on the back of hefty fiscal stimulus and a successful vaccination program Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly stated that the central bank will treat any near-term price pressures as transitory, and this CPI release is not seen pressuring them to start tapering the ultra-easy monetary policies that have helped the U.S. economy start to recover from the pandemic. USD/RUB fell 0.4% to 75.63 after U.S. President Joe Biden proposed a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin to tackle a raft of disputes, attempting to reduce tensions following a Russian military build-up on Ukraine's border.
  • The dollar fell to multi-week lows against the euro and the yen on Wednesday, after an uptick in a U.S. consumer price gauge did not spark wider fears about accelerating inflation and the Federal Reserve's tapering, pushing down U.S. bond yields. While the dollar was stuck near its familiar ranges against most other currencies, the dollar's index against a basket of six major units fell to as low as 91.724, its lowest since March 22. The greenback's fall came as U.S. bond yields dipped, thus reducing the currency's yield attraction, as solid demand for a 30-year bond auction trumped rises in consumer inflation. The U.S. consumer price index jumped 0.6% in March versus the previous month, the largest gain since August 2012, and rose 2.6% from a year earlier, both 0.1 percentage point above market expectations. The core CPI, which excludes volatile foods and energy, was also a tad stronger than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Speculation that firmer inflation could propel the Federal Reserve to reduce its quantitative easing and low interest rates earlier than it has pledged has been a major driver of the dollar's rally in the first quarter. The U.S. central bank has said it will look through temporary increases in inflation, and analysts expect it will allow inflation to run hotter than previously expected before raising rates. Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said on Tuesday it is unlikely that inflation will run out of control this year. The Russian rouble gained about 2% overnight after U.S. President Joe Biden called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to reduce tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Biden phoned Putin to propose they meet in a third country, in a sign of concern about tensions spinning out of control in the Ukraine crisis.
  • The dollar was down on Wednesday morning in Asia to a near three-week low against the euro and the yen, thanks to a larger-than-expected rise in the U.S. consumer price gauge. The U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-on-month in March, against the 0.2% growth in forecasts and February’s 0.1% growth, data released on Tuesday said. The CPI grew 0.6% month-on-month, its largest gain since August 2012. The rise was not a surprise to some investors, however The U.S. Federal Reserve has said that it will look through temporary increases in inflation, with investors expecting that the central bank will allow inflation to run higher than previously thought before it raises rates. Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said on Tuesday it is unlikely that inflation will run out of control in 2021, however. Investors now await further comment from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at an Economic Club of Washington event and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book, both taking place later today. Still, investors remain wary that the U.S. economy will accelerate further, thanks to the fast pace of COVID-19 vaccination rollouts which has allowed economic activities to resume. U.S. bond yields dipped on Tuesday after an auction for 30-year bonds attracted solid demand, thus tapering down inflation worries.
  • Crude climbed on Wednesday after industry data showed U.S. oil inventories declined more than expected and OPEC raised its outlook for oil demand, but gains were capped by worries about the coronavirus and by rising supplies of the energy resource. Signs of a strong economic recovery in China and the United States have underpinned recent oil price gains, but concerns over stalled vaccine rollouts worldwide and soaring COVID-19 infections in India and Brazil have capped gains. A weakening U.S. dollar also "provided a mild upward push in recent days but there's been no major bullish impetus to free crude from its narrow trading range," she said. A lower greenback, which hit three-week lows on Wednesday, makes crude purchases cheaper for countries using other currencies. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tweaked up its forecast on Tuesday for world oil demand growth this year, now expecting demand to rise by 5.95 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, up by 70,000 bpd from its forecast last month. It is banking on the pandemic to subside and travel curbs to be eased. Further supporting the market on Wednesday, sources said data from the American Petroleum Institute showed crude stocks fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week ended April 9, compared with estimates for a decline of about 2.9 million barrels from analysts polled by Reuters. Traders are waiting to see if official inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday matches that view. Market gains are being capped on concerns about increased oil production in the United States and rising supply from Iran at a time when OPEC and its allies are set to bring on more supply from May. EIA said this week oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to rise by 13,000 bpd in May to 7.61 million bpd. U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a draw of 3.608 million barrels for the week ending Apr. 9. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com had predicted a draw of 2.15 million barrels, while a 2.618-barrel-draw was recorded during the previous week. Supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due later in the day, which is widely expected to confirm a third consecutive weekly draw. The OPEC and allies (OPEC+)’s monthly report, released on Tuesday, boosted consumption forecast for 2021 and predicted the market recovery will continue in the coming months. The report added that increasing consumption should help to keep stockpiles low, even as the cartel prepares to ease production curbs from May onwards.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,754-1,762 1,770 1,776-1,790
Silver-XAG 25.60 26.05 26.50-27.25
Crude Oil 61.25¬-62.00 62.90 63.70-64.45
EURO/USD 1.2010 1.2049 1.2140-1.2200
GBP/USD 1.3800 1.3860 1.3900-1.3950
USD/JPY 110.00-111.00 111.70 112.20-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,730-1,715 1,705 1,690-1,684
Silver-XAG 24.70-23.90 23.55 23.00-22.50
Crude Oil 60.50-59.25 58.25 57.20-56.50
EURO/USD 1.1960-1.1905 1.1800 1.1760-1.1705
GBP/USD 1.3747-1.3700 1.3650 1.3600-1.3560
USD/JPY 109.00-108.50 108.00 107.35-106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (14th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1748.84/oz and low of US$1723.62/oz. Gold down 0.727% at US$1745.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1743-1675 with risk below 1675, targeting 1751-1,762 and 1770-1776-1790. Sell below 1751-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1743-1730-1715 and 1705-1684-1675.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,730-1,715
S2     1,705
S3     1,690-1,684
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,754-1,762
R2     1,770
R3     1,776-1,790

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$25.46/oz and low of US$24.66/oz settled down by 2.080% at US$25.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.70-23.90
S2     23.55
S3     23.00-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.60
R2     26.05
R3     26.50-27.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US60.60/bbl, intraday low of US$59.65/bbl and settled down by 1.263% to close at US$60.44/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 60.50-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 61.25-62.00-62.90 and 63.70-64.45. Sell in between 61.25-64.45 with stop loss at 64.45; targeting 59.00-58.25-57.10 and 56.40-55.90-54.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     60.50-59.25
S2     58.25
S3     57.20-56.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     61.25¬-62.00
R2     62.90
R3     63.70-64.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.168 Sell
20-DMA   62.56 Buy
50-DMA   58.37 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1876/EUR, high of US$1.1955/EUR and settled the day up by 0.319% to close at US$1.1947/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1960-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.2010-1.2049-1.2090 and 1.2140-1.2200. Sell below 1.2010-1.2200 targeting 1.1960-1.1905-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705-1.1650 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1960-1.1905
S2     1.1800
S3     1.1760-1.1705

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2010
R2     1.2049
R3     1.2140-1.2200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3693/GBP, high of US$1.3768/GBP and settled the day up by 0.125% to close at US$1.3749/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3800-1.4080 with targets at 1.3750-1.3700-1.3650 and 1.3600-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3750-1.3520 with targets 1.3865-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3520.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3747-1.3700
S2     1.3650
S3     1.3600-1.3560

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3800
R2     1.3860
R3     1.3900-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3672 Buy
200-DMA   1.3314 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY109.24/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.76/USD and settled the day down by 0.318% at JPY109.37/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.00-108.50
S2     108.00
S3     107.35-106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-111.00
R2     111.70
R3     112.20-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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