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Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar sank to a four-week low against other major currencies on Thursday as Treasury yields pulled back from last month's surge, with investors increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low for some time. The Russian rouble sank more than 1% to 76.65 per dollar on reports the U.S. will announce sanctions on Russia as soon as Thursday for alleged election interference and malicious cyber activity. Repeated assurances from Fed officials that they will keep interest rates low have helped stabilise U.S. bonds, especially at the short end of the market Meanwhile, stocks have marched higher, with the S&P 500 setting records this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that in time the U.S. central bank would reduce its monthly bond purchases before it committed to an interest rate increase, a scenario many investors had regarded as a given. Bitcoin stood near the record high of $64,895.22 reached on Wednesday, when cryptocurrency platform Coinbase made its debut in Nasdaq in a direct listing. The world's most popular digital token last changed hands around $63,250. After volatile trading, the stock closed at $328.28, which gave the firm a market capitalisation of $65.39 billion, about the same as New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange. The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia but was holding near a three-week low. U.S. bond yields pulled back from March's surge as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to insist that interest rates can stay low. The Fed has repeatedly pledged to keep interest rates low, which has helped stabilize U.S. bonds. The benchmark ten-year U.S. bond yields eased to 1.636% on Thursday but were well below the 14-month peak of 1.776% hit in late March. Although some investors remained concerned that the Fed could change its tune later in 2021 should inflation readings climb much higher than expected, they seem to be taking the central bank at its word for now. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed will reduce its monthly bond purchases before committing to an interest rate increase in his speech at the Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday. However, many investors already take this scenario for granted.
  • Gold was up on Thursday morning in Asia, as investors await U.S. economic data and a dollar near three-week lows boosted the appeal of the safe-haven yellow metal. The U.S. data, including industrial production and retail sales, will be released later in the day. The dollar, which usually moves inversely to gold, hovered near a three-week low on Thursday and U.S. bond yields levelled off following March’s surge. The U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19 accelerated into the spring thanks to rising consumer sentiment, the U.S. Federal Reserve said. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell added that the country is on track for faster growth and hiring in the coming months. Powell also re-affirmed the central bank’s continued support for the economic recovery and said that a pullback in asset purchases would happen “well before” the central bank considers raising interest rates, at an Economic Club of Washington event on Wednesday. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the eurozone economy is now relying on the “two crutches” of monetary and fiscal stimulus, which cannot be removed until the economy recovers completely, according to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. On the COVID-19 vaccine front, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s immunization panel called for more data before determining whether to resume using Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ) vaccine. A review Wednesday to review six cases of rare blood clots in women who received the vaccine ended without a vote and in effect extended the halt on the vaccine’s use. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will review the CDC’s analysis once it is released and determine the next steps.
  • Oil was down Thursday morning in Asia, but remained near one-month highs as investors assessed the IEA's latest forecasts for oil demand and a draw in U.S. crude oil supplies U.S. crude oil supply data from the U.S. EIA showed a draw of 5.889 million barrels in the week to Apr. 9. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com had predicted a 2.889-million-barrel draw, while a 3.522-million-barrel draw was recorded during the previous week. The EIA data also said that gasoline supplied to the market during the past week increased to 8.9 million bpd, its highest level since August 2020. Supply data from the American Petroleum Institute a day before recorded a draw of 3.608 million barrels. East Coast crude stocks also hit a record low and investors remained optimistic over supply. However, IEA's monthly report predicted that global oil demand and supply are set to be rebalanced in the second half of 2021, clawing back the demand lost in 2020 thanks to COVID-19. Should the prediction prove accurate, producers may then need to pump a further 2 million bpd to meet the demand. The OPEC+ also raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2021 earlier in the week. The cartel expects demand to rise by 70,000 bpd from March’s forecast and global demand to rise by 5.95 million bpd in 2021. Oil edged lower in Asia after jumping almost 5% on Wednesday as U.S. stockpiles data added to signs the demand outlook is improving. Futures in New York traded near $63 a barrel after closing higher for a third day, the longest run of gains in more than a month. U.S. crude inventories dropped the most in almost two months last week, while a gauge of gasoline demand ticked higher for a seventh straight week. The bullish data followed upbeat assessments by OPEC and the International Energy Agency. Oil had been stuck near $60 a barrel after a rally faltered in mid-March amid a resurgence in virus cases in some regions. While the IEA sees a temporary lull in the market due to the renewed outbreaks, it followed.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,754-1,762 1,770 1,776-1,790
Silver-XAG 25.60 26.50-27.25 26.50-27.25
Crude Oil 63.70-64.55 65.00 66.00-66.45
EURO/USD 1.2010 1.2049 1.2140-1.2200
GBP/USD 1.3800 1.3860 1.3900-1.3950
USD/JPY 109.00-110.00 111.00 111.70-112.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,715 1,715 1,705-1,690
Silver-XAG 24.70-23.90 23.55 23.00-22.50
Crude Oil 62.70¬-62.00 60.50 59.25-58.25
EURO/USD 1.1960-1.1905 1.1800 1.1760-1.1705
GBP/USD 1.3747-1.3700 1.3650 1.3600-1.3560
USD/JPY 108.50 108.00 107.35-106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (15th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1749.29/oz and low of US$1732.55/oz. Gold down 0.520% at US$1735.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1743-1675 with risk below 1675, targeting 1751-1,762 and 1770-1776-1790. Sell below 1751-1776 keeping stop loss closing above 1776, targeting 1743-1730-1715 and 1705-1684-1675.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,715
S2     1,715
S3     1,705-1,690
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,754-1,762
R2     1,770
R3     1,776-1,790

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$25.52/oz and low of US$25.18/oz settled up by 0.256% at US$25.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.70-23.90
S2     23.55
S3     23.00-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.60
R2     26.50-27.25
R3     26.50-27.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US63.48/bbl, intraday low of US$60.41/bbl and settled down by 0.376% to close at US$60.41/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 62.70-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00 and targeting 63.70-64.45-65.00 and 66.00-66.45. Sell in between 63.70-66.45 with stop loss at 66.45; targeting 62.70-62.00-60.50 and 59.00-58.25-57.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.70¬-62.00
S2     60.50
S3     59.25-58.25

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     63.70-64.55
R2     65.00
R3     66.00-66.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.168 Sell
20-DMA   60.20 Buy
50-DMA   61.01 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1945/EUR, high of US$1.1986/EUR and settled the day up by 0.263% to close at US$1.1978/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1960-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.2010-1.2049-1.2090 and 1.2140-1.2200. Sell below 1.2010-1.2200 targeting 1.1960-1.1905-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705-1.1650 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1960-1.1905
S2     1.1800
S3     1.1760-1.1705

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2010
R2     1.2049
R3     1.2140-1.2200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3745/GBP, high of US$1.3807/GBP and settled the day up by 0.1774% to close at US$1.3773/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3800-1.4080 with targets at 1.3750-1.3700-1.3650 and 1.3600-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3750-1.3520 with targets 1.3865-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3520.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3747-1.3700
S2     1.3650
S3     1.3600-1.3560

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3800
R2     1.3860
R3     1.3900-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3672 Buy
200-DMA   1.3314 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.74/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.08/USD and settled the day down by 0.318% at JPY108.91/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50
S2     108.00
S3     107.35-106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.00-110.00
R2     111.00
R3     111.70-112.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

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