AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia but was set to end the week with its worst back-to-back weekly drop in 2021. Treasury yields continued their retreat from more-than-one-year highs as investors increasingly bought into the U.S. Federal Reserve's pledge of continued monetary support. Chinese economic data released earlier in the day said that the GDP for the first quarter grew 18.3% and 0.6% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter respectively in March. Although both figures were lower than forecasted, economic growth soared on a yearly basis while slowing down on a quarterly basis. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also said on Thursday that the U.S. economy is still far from making "substantial progress" toward the central bank's goals of 2% inflation and full employment when it will begin to consider reducing its support for the economy. Investor bets that massive fiscal spending in addition to continued monetary easing will spur faster U.S. economic growth and runaway inflation drove the dollar index, alongside Treasury yields, to an almost five-month high on the final day of March. However, investors now seem more willing to accept the Fed’s assurance that inflation pressure will be transitory and monetary stimulus will remain in place for years to come. The dollar is "still struggling to find its feet in April, even though the U.S. macro outperformance narrative could not be more propitious," Westpac strategists said in a note. The Russian rouble tumbled during the previous session, losing 2% to the dollar and hitting a more than five-month low versus the euro in volatile trade. The U.S. slapped sanctions against Russia on Thursday after U.S. President Joe Biden authorized the move to punish Moscow’s alleged interference in the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Russia has denied the allegations, however.
  • The dollar headed for its worst back-to-back weekly drop this year amid an extended retreat in Treasury yields as investors increasingly bought into the Federal Reserve's insistence of keeping an accommodative policy stance for a while longer. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped to a one-month low of 1.528% overnight, moving further away from over a one-year high of 1.776% reached at the end of last month, even in the face of Thursday's stronger-than-expected retail sales and employment data. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on the same day that the U.S. economy is still far from making "substantial progress" toward the central bank's goals of 2% inflation and full employment, the bar the Fed has set for beginning to consider reducing its support for the economy. That echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments in several speeches over the past week that policymakers will look through near-term rises in prices amid ongoing slack in the labour market. The gauge, also known as the DXY, had surged with Treasury yields to an almost-five-month high at 93.439 on the final day of March, on bets that massive fiscal spending coupled with continued monetary easing will spur faster U.S. economic growth and higher inflation, particularly compared to places like Europe. But bond and foreign-exchange markets now seem willing to give the Fed the benefit of the doubt that inflation pressure will be transitory and monetary stimulus will remain in place for years to come. Retail sales increased 9.8% last month, beating economists' expectations for a 5.9% rise, while first-time claims for unemployment benefits tumbled last week to the lowest level in more than a year, separate reports showed Thursday. Some analysts also pointed to Wall Street's strong gains, with the S&P 500 and Dow both posting record highs, as weighing on the traditionally safe-haven dollar amid increased risk appetite. Highly anticipated economic data from China on Friday ultimately had little effect on currencies, even as the world's second largest economy posted record 18.3% growth in the first quarter year-on-year.
  • Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, as better-than-expected U.S. economic data canceled support from lower Treasury yields. However, the safe-haven yellow metal was poised to post a second consecutive weekly gain and end its best week in five, supported by inflationary concerns over unprecedented fiscal stimulus and ultra-low interest rates globally. U.S. Treasury yields fell to one-month lows on Thursday after the U.S. government slapped sanctions on Russia for alleged misdeeds including interference in the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Capping gold’s gains, however, was a higher-than-expected growth in March’s U.S. retail sales month-on-month and initial jobless claims dropping to the lowest level since mid-March 2020. In Asia, China continued its economic recovery from a COVID-19 downturn in 2020 but at a slower pace than expected. Economic data released earlier in the day said that GDP for the first quarter grew at 18.3% year-on-year and 0.6% and quarter-on-quarter respectively in March. Meanwhile, industrial production grew 14.1% year on year. Improving demand, both domestically and overseas, and continuous government support for SMEs gave the recovery a boost.
  • Oil rose above $67 a barrel on Friday, gaining for a fifth session, as a stronger demand outlook and signs of economic recovery in China and the United States offset rising COVID-19 infections in some other major economies. China's gross domestic product jumped 18.3% in the first quarter from a year earlier, official data showed on Friday. On Thursday, figures showed a rise in U.S. retail sales and a drop in unemployment claims. Helping prices rally this week, reports from the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries both made upward revisions to oil demand growth forecasts for 2021. Figures on Wednesday also showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels. Demand hopes offset concern about rising coronavirus cases in other big economies. India's infection rate hit a record while Germany's chancellor on Friday said a third virus wave has the country in its grip. Oil has recovered from record lows hit last year as demand collapsed due to the pandemic. It has been helped by record cuts to oil output by OPEC+ producers. OPEC+ agreed on April 1 to ease its oil output cuts from May to July and will meet to consider further tweaks on April 28.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,763-1,770 1,776 1,790-1,805
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.50 27.25 27.90-28.50
Crude Oil 63.70-64.55 65.00 66.00-66.45
EURO/USD 1.2010 1.2049 1.2140-1.2200
GBP/USD 1.3800 1.3860 1.3900-1.3950
USD/JPY 109.00-110.00 111.00 111.70-112.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,754-1,741 1,732 1,715-1,705
Silver-XAG 25.60-24.70 23.90 23.55-23.00
Crude Oil 62.70¬-62.00 60.50 59.25-58.25
EURO/USD 1.1960-1.1905 1.1800 1.1760-1.1705
GBP/USD 1.3747-1.3700 1.3650 1.3600-1.3560
USD/JPY 108.00 108.00 107.35-106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (16th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1769.57/oz and low of US$1734.28/oz. Gold down 1.596% at US$1734.28/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1754-1705 with risk below 1700, targeting 1,763-1770-1776 and 1790-1805. Sell below 1769-1805 keeping stop loss closing above 1805, targeting 1754-1743-1730 and 1715 and 1705-1684-1675.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,754-1,741
S2     1,732
S3     1,715-1,705
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,763-1,770
R2     1,776
R3     1,790-1,805

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1766.69 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$25.97/oz and low of US$25.30/oz settled up by 1.676% at US$25.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.60-24.70
S2     23.90
S3     23.55-23.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.50
R2     27.25
R3     27.90-28.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US63.59/bbl, intraday low of US$62.58/bbl and settled up by 0.734% to close at US$63.33/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 62.70-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00 and targeting 63.70-64.45-65.00 and 66.00-66.45. Sell in between 63.70-66.45 with stop loss at 66.45; targeting 62.70-62.00-60.50 and 59.00-58.25-57.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.70¬-62.00
S2     60.50
S3     59.25-58.25

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     63.70-64.55
R2     65.00
R3     66.00-66.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.168 Sell
20-DMA   60.20 Buy
50-DMA   61.01 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1955/EUR, high of US$1.1992/EUR and settled the day down by 0.263% to close at US$1.1965/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1960-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.2010-1.2049-1.2090 and 1.2140-1.2200. Sell below 1.2010-1.2200 targeting 1.1960-1.1905-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705-1.1650 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1960-1.1905
S2     1.1800
S3     1.1760-1.1705

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2010
R2     1.2049
R3     1.2140-1.2200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3760/GBP, high of US$1.3808/GBP and settled the day up by 0.073% to close at US$1.3783/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3800-1.4080 with targets at 1.3750-1.3700-1.3650 and 1.3600-1.3565 stop-loss should be 1.3950. Buy above 1.3750-1.3520 with targets 1.3865-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3520.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3747-1.3700
S2     1.3650
S3     1.3600-1.3560

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3800
R2     1.3860
R3     1.3900-1.3950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3672 Buy
200-DMA   1.3314 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY108.60/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.96/USD and settled the day down by 0.318% at JPY108.75/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00
S2     108.00
S3     107.35-106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.00-110.00
R2     111.00
R3     111.70-112.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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