AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia but remained near a one-month low as Treasury yields hovered near their lowest levels in five weeks after the U.S. Federal Reserve reiterated its view that any spike in inflation will be temporary. Improved risk sentiment amid a rally in global shares to record highs also capped gains for the U.S. currency. Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC on Friday that the U.S. economy "is ready to rip" as COVID-19 vaccinations continue and economic activity picks up. He also added that a rise in inflation is likely to be transitory, echoing comments from other Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell during the previous week. Bitcoin continued a retreat from its record high of $64,895.22 reached on Apr. 14 as it fell over the weekend. A blackout in China’s Xinjiang region, which powers a lot of bitcoin mining, was reportedly responsible for the selloff, according to data website CoinMarketCap. Analysts at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) cited "speculation in several online reports" that the U.S. Treasury could crack down on money laundering within digital currencies for the sharp drop. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s decision to ban the use of cryptocurrencies for purchases also contributed to cryptocurrencies’ fall.
  • The dollar traded largely flat in early European trading Monday, remaining near a one-month low, with Treasury yields hovering near the lowest levels in five weeks. The Federal Reserve has been persistent in communicating with the market that it will look through rises in inflation, considering them temporary, keeping the central bank’s ultra easy monetary policies in place for some time. Fed Governor Christopher Waller continued the theme on Friday, saying the U.S. economy "is ready to rip" as vaccinations continue and activity picks up, but a rise in inflation is likely to be transitory. The European Central Bank meets virtually later this week, and little new is expected with policy makers keen to avoid rocking the market given weaning financial markets off emergency stimulus is likely to be a fraught task. The U.S. ordered a raft of new sanctions against Russia on Thursday, including restrictions on buying new sovereign debt, in response to allegations that Moscow was behind a hack on SolarWinds and interfered with last year’s U.S. election.
  • Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia but remained near the seven-week peak hit during the previous session as retreating U.S. Treasury yields boosted demand for the safe-haven yellow metal. Investors' worries about the ever-rising number of COVID-19 numbers globally, alongside the number of global deaths from the virus topping the 3 million mark, also capping gold’s losses. A slower-than-hoped-for COVID-19 vaccine rollout and the spike in mutant COVID-19 strains also remain concerning. reporting its first two cases of the mutated N501Y COVID-19 strain over the weekend. Hong Kong on Sunday banned flights into the city from India, Pakistan, and the Philippines, after reporting its first two cases of the mutated N501Y COVID-19 strain. On the central bank front, the European Central Bank will hand down its policy decision later in the week, with the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes from its latest meeting on Tuesday. On the physical side, gold purchases in India decreased over elevated domestic prices and renewed COVID-19 restrictions as the country continues to see a surge in cases. Meanwhile, China increased its bullion imports in a sign that demand could be increasing. Commercial banks were also reportedly authorized to import large amounts of gold into the country.
  • Oil prices were lower on Monday as rising coronavirus infections in India and other countries prompted concerns that stronger measures to contain the pandemic will hit economic activity, along with demand for commodities such as crude. India reported a record rise in coronavirus infections of 273,810 on Monday, increasing overall cases to just over 15 million, making the country the second-worst affected after the United States, which has reported more than 31 million infections. India's deaths from COVID-19 rose by a record 1,619 to nearly 180,000. Hong Kong will suspend flights from India, Pakistan and the Philippines from April 20 due to imported coronavirus infections, authorities said in a statement late on Sunday. Japanese companies believe the world's third-largest economy will experience a fourth round of coronavirus infections, with many bracing for a further blow to business, a Reuters monthly poll showed. Japan has had far fewer COVID-19 cases than many other major economies, but concerns about a new wave of infections are rising fast, according to their responses in the poll. A slower rollout of vaccinations compared with other Group of Seven advanced countries and the lack of a sense of crisis among the public will trigger a new wave of infections, some companies wrote in the poll. In the United States energy companies added oil and natural gas rigs for a fifth consecutive week for the first time since February as higher oil prices this year encouraged drillers to return to the wellpad. Oil was down Monday morning in Asia, as rising numbers of COVID-19 cases globally stoked fuel demand recovery fears. India reported 261,500 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, and currently has the second-highest number of cases globally after the U.S. The number of deaths globally has also surpassed the 3 million mark as of Apr. 19, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Hong Kong on Sunday slapped a two-week ban on flights from India, Pakistan and the Philippines in effect from Apr. 20, as the first two cases of the mutated N501Y COVID-19 strain were reported over the weekend. Numbers are also rising in Japan, which is on the cusp of a fourth wave of infections, which in turn could impact fuel demand in the world’s third-largest economy. A slower-than-expected rollout of COVID-19 vaccines is also of concern to investors. Investors are also keeping an eye on the global crude oil supply, with data from the American Petroleum Institute due on Tuesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,780 1,790-1,803 1,816
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.50 27.25 27.90-28.50
Crude Oil 63.70-64.55 65.00 66.00-66.45
EURO/USD 1.2010 1.2049 1.2140-1.2200
GBP/USD 1.3860-1.3900 1.3950 1.4010-1.4065
USD/JPY 108.50-109.00 110.00 111.00-111.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,770-1,763 1,754 1,741-1,732
Silver-XAG 25.60-24.70 23.90 23.55-23.00
Crude Oil 62.70¬-62.00 60.50 59.25-58.25
EURO/USD 1.1960-1.1905 1.1800 1.1760-1.1705
GBP/USD 1.3800-1.3747 1.3700 1.3650-1.3600
USD/JPY 108.00 107.35-106.50 105.90

Intra-Day Strategy (19th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1783.74/oz and low of US$1759.69/oz. Gold down 0.716% at US$1776.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1770-1705 with risk below 1700, targeting 1780-1790 and 1803-1816. Sell below 1780-1816 keeping stop loss closing above 1816, targeting 1770-1763-1754 and 1743-1730-1716.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,770-1,763
S2     1,754
S3     1,741-1,732
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,780
R2     1,790-1,803
R3     1,816

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$25.73/oz and low of US$25.73/oz settled up by 0.460% at US$25.95/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.60-24.70
S2     23.90
S3     23.55-23.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.50
R2     27.25
R3     27.90-28.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US63.90/bbl, intraday low of US$62.85/bbl and settled down by 0.462% to close at US$63.06/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 62.70-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00 and targeting 63.70-64.45-65.00 and 66.00-66.45. Sell in between 63.70-66.45 with stop loss at 66.45; targeting 62.70-62.00-60.50 and 59.00-58.25-57.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.70¬-62.00
S2     60.50
S3     59.25-58.25

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     63.70-64.55
R2     65.00
R3     66.00-66.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.168 Sell
20-DMA   60.20 Buy
50-DMA   61.01 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1949/EUR, high of US$1.1994/EUR and settled the day up by 0.161% to close at US$1.1984/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1960-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.2010-1.2049-1.2090 and 1.2140-1.2200. Sell below 1.2010-1.2200 targeting 1.1960-1.1905-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705-1.1650 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1960-1.1905
S2     1.1800
S3     1.1760-1.1705

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2010
R2     1.2049
R3     1.2140-1.2200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3715/GBP, high of US$1.3845/GBP and settled the day up by 0.343% to close at US$1.3813/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3870-1.4080 with targets at 1.3800-1.3750-1.3700 and 1.3650-1.3600 stop-loss should be 1.4100. Buy above 1.3800-1.3520 with targets 1.3865-1.3900 and 1.3940-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3520.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3800-1.3747
S2     1.3700
S3     1.3650-1.3600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3860-1.3900
R2     1.3950
R3     1.4010-1.4065

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3672 Buy
200-DMA   1.3314 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.60/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.95/USD and settled the day up by 0.0165% at JPY108.77/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00
S2     107.35-106.50
S3     105.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50-109.00
R2     110.00
R3     111.00-111.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

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