AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar weakened in early European trading Tuesday, trading near a six-week low, with the euro, in particular, benefitting from progress for the region's vaccination programme. The risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.6% to 0.7800, hitting a new one-month high as the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from its latest policy meeting earlier in the day. The euro suffered against the greenback in the early months of this year as the European Union was slow in the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, suffering a third wave of cases as a result. However, the region is catching up, helped by the announcement that the EU has secured an additional 100 million doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine. The dollar had already been losing traction as U.S. bond yields have slumped from the 14-month peak touched last month, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield trading around 1.60%, reducing the greenback's yield attraction. This followed repeated assurances from Fed policymakers that near-term price pressures will be transitory, and can be 'looked through'. Attention will soon turn to Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank, although few fireworks are expected. China’s economy is on track to return to trend growth after its V-shaped recovery from the coronavirus slump ended with a record pace of expansion last quarter, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, remaining near a six-week low as the euro climbed on the back of a rallying COVID-19 vaccine rollout. The dollar had already been losing traction as U.S. bond yields have hovered below a 14-month peak touched last month, reducing the greenback's yield attraction. The euro rose to $1.2038, having touched a six-week high of $1.2048 on Monday while the British pound gained 1% overnight, its second-biggest daily gain so far this year, and last stood at $1.3989.
  • The dollar sank to a fresh 6-1/2-week low against major peers on Tuesday as the euro led a rally on the back of a brightening outlook for the region's vaccination programme. The dollar had already been losing traction as U.S. bond yields retreated from a 14-month peak touched last month, reducing the greenback's yield allure. The euro rose as high as $1.20715 for the first time since March 3, while the British pound touched a fresh one-month high at $1.40090, building on a 1% jump overnight. Some analysts say support for the euro likely came from the announcement that the European Union has secured an additional 100 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine by BioNTech and Pfizer. The moves are the reverse of what was happening in the first three months of the year, when the dollar gained against the very same major currencies as yields rose on U.S. Treasuries and offered higher returns on the greenback. At that time, bond investors bet that massive fiscal stimulus in the United States would spur faster inflation, leading to an earlier exit from the Federal Reserve's monetary easing programme. But repeated assurances from Fed policymakers this month that near-term price pressures will be transitory seem to have soothed markets.
  • Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia but slipped below a seven-week high hit during the previous session, as climbing U.S. Treasury yields overshadowed gains from a weaker dollar. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 1.6% after hitting a five-week low during the week, leading investors away from the safe-haven yellow metal. Central banks also had a busy start to the week, with the People’s Bank of China leaving its loan prime rate unchanged at 3.85% and the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes from its latest policy meeting earlier in the day. The European Central Bank will hand down its policy decision on Thursday. On the stimulus front, U.S. President Joe Biden met with a bipartisan group of congressional lawmakers Monday to drum up support for his more-than-$2-trillion jobs and infrastructure proposal. The surge in global COVID-19 cases globally continues, with the number topping the 141 million mark as of Apr. 20, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
  • Oil prices rose on Tuesday as a weaker U.S. dollar supported commodities and on expectations that crude inventories fell in the United States, the world's biggest oil user, though rising coronavirus cases in Asia capped gains. Buyers using other currencies pay less for dollar-denominated oil when the greenback weakens. The dollar index slumped to a six-week low against other major currencies on Monday following a plunge in U.S. Treasury yields last week and remained near the low at 91.055 on Tuesday. Also supporting prices, U.S. crude oil and distillate stockpiles were expected to have dropped last week, while gasoline inventories likely rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. The poll was conducted ahead of reports from industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) due on Tuesday and the EIA, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, on Wednesday. Libya's National Oil Corp (NOC) declared force majeure on Monday on exports from the port of Hariga and said it could extend the measure to other facilities because of a budget dispute with the country's central bank. The disruption could cut Libya's oil output by 280,000 barrels per day (bpd), knocking production below 1 million bpd for the first time since October, ING said. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports fell to their lowest in eight months in February, the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) said on Monday, illustrating the world's biggest oil exporter's commitment to its voluntarily output cap to support oil prices. However, surging COVID-19 cases in India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, dampened optimism for a sustained recovery in global fuel demand. The ever-surging number of COVID-19 cases in India, the third-largest oil importer and consumer globally, also raised concerns. On the supply side, investors await supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day. Also on the supply side, Libya’s National Oil Corp (NOC) declared force majeure on Monday on exports from the country’s Hariga port. NOC added that it could extend the measure to other facilities due to a budget dispute with the Central Bank of Libya. The action could cut Libya’s oil output by 280,000 barrels per day (bpd), knocking production below 1 million bpd for the first time since October 2020, the ING note said. Elsewhere in the Middle East, February’s Saudi Arabian crude oil exports fell to their lowest in eight months according to Monday’s data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative. The OPEC+ are looking for a return of supply from next month. The cartel may not have a full-scale ministerial meeting, scheduled for the following week, indicating that its current strategy could remain in place.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,770-1,780 1,790 1,803-1,816
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.50 27.25 27.90-28.50
Crude Oil 64.55 65.00 66.00-66.45
EURO/USD 1.2070-1.2140 1.2200 1.2240-1.2300
GBP/USD 1.4010-1.4065 1.4100 1.4140-1.4180
USD/JPY 108.50-109.00 110.00 111.00-111.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,763 1,754 1,741-1,732
Silver-XAG 25.60-24.70 23.90 23.55-23.00
Crude Oil 63.70-62.70 62.00 60.50-59.25
EURO/USD 1.2010-1.1960 1.1905 1.1800-1.1760
GBP/USD 1.3950-1.3900 1.3860 1.3800-1.3747
USD/JPY 108.00 107.35-106.50 105.90

Intra-Day Strategy (20th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1789.95/oz and low of US$1759.69/oz. Gold down 0.348% at US$1771.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1770-1705 with risk below 1700, targeting 1780-1790 and 1803-1816. Sell below 1780-1816 keeping stop loss closing above 1816, targeting 1770-1763-1754 and 1743-1730-1716.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,763
S2     1,754
S3     1,741-1,732
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,770-1,780
R2     1,790
R3     1,803-1,816

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$26.21/oz and low of US$25.62/oz settled down by 0.539% at US$25.80/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.60-24.70
S2     23.90
S3     23.55-23.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.50
R2     27.25
R3     27.90-28.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   24.49 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US63.66/bbl, intraday low of US$62.46/bbl and settled up by 0.707% to close at US$63.47/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 63.70-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00 and targeting 64.45-65.00 and 66.00-66.45. Sell in between 64.50-66.45 with stop loss at 66.45; targeting 62.70-62.00-60.50 and 59.00-58.25-57.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.70-62.70
S2     62.00
S3     60.50-59.25

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.55
R2     65.00
R3     66.00-66.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.168 Sell
20-DMA   60.20 Buy
50-DMA   61.01 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1941/EUR, high of US$1.2047/EUR and settled the day up by 0.539% to close at US$1.2036/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1960-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.2010-1.2049-1.2090 and 1.2140-1.2200. Sell below 1.2010-1.2200 targeting 1.1960-1.1905-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705-1.1650 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2010-1.1960
S2     1.1905
S3     1.1800-1.1760

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2070-1.2140
R2     1.2200
R3     1.2240-1.2300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3808/GBP, high of US$1.3992/GBP and settled the day up by 0.343% to close at US$1.3984/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.4010-1.4180 with targets at 1.3950-1.3900-1.3800 and 1.3745-1.3700- 1.3650 stop-loss should be 1.4100. Buy above 1.3950-1.3700 with targets 1.4010-1.4065-1.4100 and 1.4140-1.4180 with stop loss closing below 1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3950-1.3900
S2     1.3860
S3     1.3800-1.3747

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4010-1.4065
R2     1.4100
R3     1.4140-1.4180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3672 Buy
200-DMA   1.3314 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY108.00/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.82/USD and settled the day down by 0.575% at JPY108.13/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00
S2     107.35-106.50
S3     105.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50-109.00
R2     110.00
R3     111.00-111.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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