AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged lower in early European trading Wednesday, retreating once more near to seven-week lows as lower bond yields reduced its attractiveness. The dollar had received some respite on Tuesday as flare ups in coronavirus infections, primarily in India, soured the outlook for a quick global recovery, but sentiment remains weak with Treasury yields falling, reducing the currency’s yield appeal. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last seen around 1.56%, not far from its lowest since mid-March, as it continued to consolidate following its retreat from the 14-month high at 1.78% reached at the end of last month. The market appears to have had second thoughts about an early tightening of U.S. monetary policy. Eyes will turn to the European Central Bank’s policy-setting meeting on Thursday, ahead of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan next week. ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to be pressed on her thoughts about the central bank’s bond purchasing program, which has been stepped up recently to prevent a rise in borrowing costs from derailing the recovery, after Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot called the acceleration temporary.
  • The dollar languished on Wednesday, hovering just above a seven-week low with subdued U.S. bond yields reducing the currency's yield appeal. The safe-haven greenback got some respite from a pullback in world stocks from record highs as flare ups in coronavirus infections from India to Canada soured the outlook for a quick global recovery. The safety bid also bolstered the yen, which climbed to a fresh seven-week peak of 107.88 per dollar on Wednesday. The European Central Bank decides policy on Thursday, with the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan following next week. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was around 1.56%, not far from its lowest since mid-March, as it continued to consolidate following its retreat from the 14-month high at 1.7760% reached at the end of last month. Declines in U.S. yields and the dollar in April have come as evidence mounted that the Fed would be slower in tightening monetary policy than it had appeared to the market, analysts said.
  • The dollar inched up on Wednesday morning in Asia but remained near multi-week lows as subdued U.S. bond yields also diminished the U.S. currency’s yield appeal. The dollar did get some support, however, as global shares pulled back from record highs as COVID-19 numbers continue to soar globally and put paid to expectations of a quick economic recovery. The European Central Bank is also due to hand down its policy decision on Thursday. Investors’ flight to safety also boosted the yen, another safe-haven currency, and the Japanese currency climbed to a seven-week high against the dollar. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovered around the 1.56% mark and near its lowest level since mid-March 2021, continuing its consolidation following its retreat from a 14-month high at the end of March. Mounting evidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be slower in tightening monetary policy than it had appeared to the market have led to declines in U.S. yields and the dollar in April, according to some investors. Meanwhile, surging COVID-19 numbers globally also triggered investor caution. India reported 1,761 deaths from COVID-19, a record daily toll, and there were more than 142.5 million COVID-19 cases as of Apr. 21, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
  • Gold was up on Wednesday morning in Asia as softer U.S. Treasury yields increased demand for the safe-haven yellow metal. Meanwhile, investors are waiting for policy decisions from central banks globally, including the European Central Bank on Thursday and the U.S. Federal Reserve in the following week. Investors expect the Fed and other central banks to “remain dovish” due to the ever-rising numbers of COVID-19 cases, Phillip Futures senior commodities manager Avtar Sandu to Reuters. The number of COVID-19 cases globally passed the 142.5-million mark as of Apr. 21, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
  • Oil was down Wednesday morning in Asia over renewed rise in the number of COVID-19 cases globally and a surprise build in U.S. crude oil supplies renewed fuel demand worries. The number of COVID-19 cases continues to soar in India, the third-largest oil importer, exceeding 15 million as of Apr. 21 according to Johns Hopkins University data. This led to the imposition of a six-day lockdown starting Tuesday. In Japan, the cities of Tokyo and Osaka requested a state of emergency to curb the increasing cases. The number of COVID-19 cases has also surpassed the 142.5-million mark globally as of Apr. 21, according to Johns Hopkins University data. On the supply side, Tuesday’s U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a surprise build of 436,000 barrels for the week ending Apr. 16. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com had predicted a 2.86-million-barrel draw, while a 3.608-million-barrel draw was reported during the previous week. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due later in the day. However, with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and relaxed restrictive measures contributing to a rise of more than 25% for the black liquid, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are expected to ease current supply cuts from May onwards. Some investors also remained optimistic, including independent oil trader Vitol Group which is expecting fuel demand to grow as the economic recovery from COVID-19 still continues and positive demand in China. Traffic and factory activity across the biggest crude importer globally is surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels, according to data from TomTom International BV.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,803 1,816 1,824-1,830
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.50 27.25 27.90-28.50
Crude Oil 62.70¬-63.70 64.55 65.00-66.00
EURO/USD 1.2070-1.2140 1.2200 1.2240-1.2300
GBP/USD 1.4010-1.4065 1.4100 1.4140-1.4180
USD/JPY 108.50-109.00 110.00 111.00-111.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,780-1,770 1,763 1,754-1,741
Silver-XAG 25.60-24.70 23.90 23.55-23.00
Crude Oil 62.00-61.45 60.80 59.25-58.50
EURO/USD 1.2010-1.1960 1.1905 1.1800-1.1760
GBP/USD 1.3900 1.3860 1.3800-1.3747
USD/JPY 108.00 107.35-106.50 105.90

Intra-Day Strategy (21st April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1780.37/oz and low of US$1763.57/oz. Gold up 0.441% at US$1778.62/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1780-1741 with risk below 1741, targeting 1790-1803-1816 and 1824-1830. Sell below 1790-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1780-1770-1763 and 1754-1743.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,780-1,770
S2     1,763
S3     1,754-1,741
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,790-1,803
R2     1,816
R3     1,824-1,830

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$26.07/oz and low of US$25.68/oz settled up by 0.081% at US$25.82/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.60-24.70
S2     23.90
S3     23.55-23.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.50
R2     27.25
R3     27.90-28.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US64.33/bbl, intraday low of US$61.46/bbl and settled down by 1.804% to close at US$62.34/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 62.00-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00 and targeting 62.70-63.50 and 64.45-65.00-66.00. Sell in between 62.50-66.45 with stop loss at 66.45; targeting 62.00-61.45-60.50 and 59.00-58.25-57.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.00-61.45
S2     60.80
S3     59.25-58.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.70¬-63.70
R2     64.55
R3     65.00-66.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.168 Sell
20-DMA   60.20 Buy
50-DMA   61.01 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.2021/EUR, high of US$1.2079/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0124% to close at US$1.2034/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1960-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.2010-1.2049-1.2090 and 1.2140-1.2200. Sell below 1.2010-1.2200 targeting 1.1960-1.1905-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705-1.1650 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2010-1.1960
S2     1.1905
S3     1.1800-1.1760

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2070-1.2140
R2     1.2200
R3     1.2240-1.2300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3925/GBP, high of US$1.4008/GBP and settled the day up by 0.343% to close at US$1.3935/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.4010-1.4180 with targets at 1.3900-1.3800 and 1.3745-1.3700- 1.3650 stop-loss should be 1.4100. Buy above 1.3950-1.3700 with targets 1.4010-1.4065-1.4100 and 1.4140-1.4180 with stop loss closing below 1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3900
S2     1.3860
S3     1.3800-1.3747

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4010-1.4065
R2     1.4100
R3     1.4140-1.4180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

1.3820

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3314 Buy
200-DMA   1.3314 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY107.96/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.54/USD and settled the day down by 0.0480% at JPY108.08/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00
S2     107.35-106.50
S3     105.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50-109.00
R2     110.00
R3     111.00-111.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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