AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar weakened in early European trading Thursday, remaining near to multi-week lows, with the euro in focus as the European Central Bank meets. Investors have also turned away from the greenback as U.S. Treasury yields reversed their climbs in March 2021, and an auction of 20-year Treasuries drew strong demand on Wednesday, which also helped to cap yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last seen around 1.53%, around the lowest it has been since mid-March, a sharp move lower from the 14-month high at 1.7760% reached at the end of last month. Still, most attention Thursday will be on the European Central Bank, as it hands down its latest policy decision later in the day. The central bank is widely expected to maintain its current policy, but any positive comments from the central bank about the economic outlook or hints of tapering bond purchases are widely expected to boost the euro, especially after it said at its last meeting that it would step up net asset purchases to curtail the rise in bond yields. "The outlook has improved for both the global and Canadian economies. Activity has proven more resilient than expected in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the rollout of vaccines is progressing," the BoC said in a statement.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched down. Investors are looking to the European Central Bank (EBC) policy decision, which will be handed down later in the day. Any positive comments from the central bank about the economic outlook or hints of tapering bond purchases are widely expected to boost the euro. The single currency was trading at $1.2043, not far from a record level set on Mar. 3. The ECB is widely expected to maintain its current policy when it meets later in the day, but some investors anticipate that the meeting will indicate whether ECB will slow down bond-buying from June onwards. De Nederlandsche Bank president Klaas Knot has already said tapering is possible, and the euro could resume its rise against the dollar. Monetary policy remains a focus as the Bank of Canada signaled that it could start raising interest rates in late 2022 after cutting the pace of bond purchases, becoming the first Group of Seven central bank to move towards withdrawing unprecedented stimulus. The Canadian dollar climbed to a six-week high on Wednesday, and last traded at 1.2500 against its U.S. counterpart. The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars also traded near one-month highs against the dollar, as improving economic outlooks in the Antipodean countries make their central banks more likely to follow the Reserve Bank of Canada’s footsteps Investors have also turned away from the greenback as U.S. Treasury yields reversed their climbs in March 2021, but some retained a more positive outlook in the long term over a strong U.S. economy and an improving COVID-19 vaccine rollout. An auction of 20-year Treasuries drew strong demand on Wednesday, which helped the fixed income market regain its footing and capped yields.
  • Gold was up on Thursday morning in Asia, sticking around an eight-week high thanks to a weaker dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields. A U.S. Senate committee on Wednesday backed a bill aimed at China and proposing closer scrutiny of overseas donations to U.S. colleges and universities among other measures. The passage of the bill, also aimed at bolstering U.S. competitiveness in the technology and critical manufacturing industries, also raised tensions between the two countries. U.S. lawmakers also introduced a separate bill seeking billions to fund technology research, and the economy is widely expected to grow at its fastest annual pace in decades in 2021, although the recent rise in COVID-19 cases could slow that pace down. The number of COVID-19 cases globally exceeded the 143 million mark and over three million have died as of Apr. 22, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Meanwhile, investors await a European Central Bank policy decision later in the day and a U.S. Federal Reserve decision the following week. Investors will be paying close attention to these decisions after the Bank of Canada signaled that it could start hiking interest rates in late 2022 after cutting the pace of bond purchases, making it the first central bank in the Group of Seven to progress towards withdrawing unprecedented stimulus measures.
  • Oil was down Thursday morning in Asia as the ever-rising number of COVID-19 cases in India and Japan continues to raise fuel demand concerns. The market was also rattled by Wednesday’s crude oil supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that showed a surprise build of 594,000 barrels for the week ending Apr. 16. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com had predicted a 2.975-million-barrel draw, while a 5.889-million-barrel draw was reported during the previous week. Supply data from the American Petroleum Institute the day before showed a build of 436,000 barrels. On the COVID-19 front, India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, reported another record number of COVID-19 cases on Wednesday. Japan, a place behind India on the importer scale, is also considering imposing a state of emergency in Tokyo and Osaka due to rising COVID-19 cases. Elsewhere, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) will meet in the following week but is not likely to make major changes to the current production cuts, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Meanwhile, Libya’s National Oil Corp. could extend Monday’s force majeure on exports from Hariga port to other facilities.
  • "Earlier this week, the market rose briefly on news of Libya's force majeure on exports but concerns over the spread of COVID-19 in Asia are outweighing Libya's news now," Fujitomi’s Tazawa said. U.S. crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly edged higher in the week ended on April 16, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, confirming American Petroleum Institute data from the day before. India, the world's third-largest oil user, on Wednesday reported another record increase in its daily death toll from COVID-19. Japan, the world's No.4 oil importer, is considering a state of emergency for Tokyo and Osaka as new case numbers surge, broadcaster NHK reported. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, a producer group known as OPEC+, are heading for a largely technical meeting next week in which major changes to policy are unlikely, Russian Deputy Prime Minister and OPEC+ sources said. Libya's National Oil Corp (NOC) declared force majeure on Monday on exports from the port of Hariga and said it could extend the measure to other facilities due to a budget dispute with the country's central bank.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,795-1,803 1,816 1,824-1,830
Silver-XAG 26.55-27.25 27.90 28.50-29.00
Crude Oil 62.70¬-63.70 64.55 65.00-66.00
EURO/USD 1.2070-1.2140 1.2200 1.2240-1.2300
GBP/USD 1.4010-1.4065 1.4100 1.4140-1.4180
USD/JPY 110.00 110.00 111.00-111.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,780-1,770 1,763 1,754-1,741
Silver-XAG 26.05-25.60 24.70 23.90-23.55
Crude Oil 62.00-61.45 60.80 59.25-58.50
EURO/USD 1.2010-1.1960 1.1905 1.1800-1.1760
GBP/USD 1.3900-1.3860 1.3800 1.3747-1.3700
USD/JPY 107.90-107.35 106.50 105.90-105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1797.15/oz and low of US$1776.18/oz. Gold down 0.838% at US$1793.50/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1780-1741 with risk below 1741, targeting 1790-1803-1816 and 1824-1830. Sell below 1794-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1780-1770-1763 and 1754-1743.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,780-1,770
S2     1,763
S3     1,754-1,741
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,795-1,803
R2     1,816
R3     1,824-1,830

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$26.63/oz and low of US$25.75/oz settled up by 2.985% at US$26.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     26.05-25.60
S2     24.70
S3     23.90-23.55

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.55-27.25
R2     27.90
R3     28.50-29.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US62.52/bbl, intraday low of US$60.83/bbl and settled down by 2.194% to close at US$61.02/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.00-61.45
S2     60.80
S3     59.25-58.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.70¬-63.70
R2     64.55
R3     65.00-66.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.168 Sell
20-DMA   60.20 Buy
50-DMA   61.01 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1997/EUR, high of US$1.2043/EUR and settled the day down by 0.004% to close at US$1.2034/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1960-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.2010-1.2049-1.2090 and 1.2140-1.2200. Sell below 1.2010-1.2200 targeting 1.1960-1.1905-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705-1.1650 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2010-1.1960
S2     1.1905
S3     1.1800-1.1760

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2070-1.2140
R2     1.2200
R3     1.2240-1.2300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3884/GBP, high of US$1.3948/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0545% to close at US$1.3927/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.4010-1.4180 with targets at 1.3900-1.3800 and 1.3745-1.3700- 1.3650 stop-loss should be 1.4100. Buy above 1.3950-1.3700 with targets 1.4010-1.4065-1.4100 and 1.4140-1.4180 with stop loss closing below 1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3900-1.3860
S2     1.3800
S3     1.3747-1.3700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4010-1.4065
R2     1.4100
R3     1.4140-1.4180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3672 Buy
200-DMA   1.3314 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY107.86/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.27/USD and settled the day down by 0.0185% at JPY108.06/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.90-107.35
S2     106.50
S3     105.90-105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00
R2     110.00
R3     111.00-111.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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