AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar weakened in early European trading Friday, sticking to narrow ranges as traders turn their attention onto next week’s Federal Reserve meeting following the conclusion of the European Central Bank get-together. The European Central Bank maintained its very accommodative policies at its latest meeting Thursday, and President Christine Lagarde shut down expectations that the central bank will start to consider tapering its bond purchases even while predicting a robust recovery for the region in the second half of the year. Some of this data is due later Friday, with French and German PMI numbers for April expected to show improving sentiment throughout the region. Also of interest will be the Federal Reserve meeting next week, with the U.S. central bank expected to keep its current policy largely unchanged on April 28. Investors will be looking more for any comments about scaling back monetary easing in the future from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, although he is likely to take a leaf out of Lagarde’s playbook and warn against expecting the tapering of bond purchases anytime soon. U.K. retail sales surged more than expected to levels higher than before the coronavirus pandemic struck, even with most shops still closed, rising 5.4% in March from the month before, double the gain of the previous month. Britain also recorded a 28 billion-pound ($39 billion) budget deficit in March, a shortfall for 2020-21 as a whole of 303.1 billion pounds, the largest budget deficit in peacetime history. As large as this figure is, it’s still smaller than the 327.4 billion pounds predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility last month. USD/RUB fell 1.7% to 75.352, as Russia started to pull its troops back from the Ukrainian border, reducing the apparent likelihood of a fresh invasion of its western neighbor. Russia’s central bank is also set to meet later Friday, and many analysts expect it to raise its key interest rate to try and restrain rising inflation. Russia's consumer price index rose 5.8% in March in year-on-year terms, its highest reading in nearly five years, something that President Vladimir Putin touched on in his annual address to the nation on Wednesday.
  • Gold was up on Friday morning in Asia and was set to record a third consecutive weekly gain, as the dollar weakened and U.S. Treasury yields fell. U.S. initial jobless claims hit a 13-month low of 547,000 claims during the past week. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com had predicted 617,000 claims while 586,000 claims were filed during the previous week. On the central bank front, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned that expectations of tapering of bond purchases are premature as ECB handed down its policy decision on Thursday. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is widely expected to reiterate this message when the Fed hands down its own decision the following week. In Central Asia, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan will not sell gold until it perceives that prices are peaking, its deputy governor Behzod Khamraev told Reuters. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s March gold exports hit their highest level in over 10 months, largely thanks to the highest number of shipments to India since 2013, according to Swiss customs data.
  • Oil was up Friday morning in Asia, with investors expecting an increase in fuel demand as the economy recovers and lockdown ease in the U.S. and Europe. However, investors remained concerned about record numbers of COVID-19 cases in India. In the U.S, refiner Valero said gasoline and diesel demand recovered back to pre-COVID-19 levels, at 93% and 100% respectively, with its chief commercial officer Gary Simmons added the firm is "pretty bullish on gasoline going forward". Across the Atlantic, Europe is expecting an increasing demand as France looks to reopen schools on Monday and lift domestic travel curbs which started earlier in the month, on May 3. However, both Brent and WTI futures headed towards a nearly 2% weekly loss as the number of COIVD-19 cases in India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, continues to set new records. The country set a fresh global record of 314,835 cases on Thursday, and several countries, including Singapore, the UAE and Australia, restricted the number of flights from India. Some investors remained optimistic, however. Oil prices rose on Friday on hopes of a fuel demand recovery in the United States and Europe as economic growth picks up and lockdowns ease, but worries about India's raging second wave of COVID-19 cases kept a lid on gains. U.S. refiner Valero said gasoline and diesel demand were back to 93% and 100% of the levels they were at before the pandemic, with chief commercial officer Gary Simmons saying the company is "pretty bullish on gasoline going forward". Improving conditions in Europe also buoyed sentiment. France said schools would reopen on Monday and domestic travel curbs in place since early April restricting people to within 10 km (6 miles) of their homes would end on May 3. Nevertheless, both benchmark crude contracts are headed for a weekly loss of nearly 2% on concerns about sliding fuel demand in India, the world's third largest oil importer, where daily infections and deaths from COVID-19 hit new records this week. Several countries, including Australia, Britain, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates, have barred or cut flights from India.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,795-1,803 1,816 1,824-1,830
Silver-XAG 26.55-27.25 27.90 28.50-29.00
Crude Oil 62.70¬-63.70 64.55 65.00-66.00
EURO/USD 1.2070-1.2140 1.2200 1.2240-1.2300
GBP/USD 1.3900-1.4010 1.4065 1.4100-1.4180
USD/JPY 108.50-109.00 110.00 111.00-111.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,780-1,770 1,763 1,754-1,741
Silver-XAG 26.05-25.60 24.70 23.90-23.55
Crude Oil 62.00-61.45 60.80 59.25-58.50
EURO/USD 1.2010-1.1960 1.1905 1.1800-1.1760
GBP/USD 1.3860-1.3800 1.3747 1.3700-1.3650
USD/JPY 107.90-107.35 106.50 105.90-105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1797.80/oz and low of US$1777.36/oz. Gold down 0.548% at US$1783.78/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1780-1741 with risk below 1741, targeting 1790-1803-1816 and 1824-1830. Sell below 1794-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1780-1770-1763 and 1754-1743.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,780-1,770
S2     1,763
S3     1,754-1,741
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,795-1,803
R2     1,816
R3     1,824-1,830

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$26.57/oz and low of US$25.96/oz settled down by 1.536% at US$26.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 25.50-27.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     26.05-25.60
S2     24.70
S3     23.90-23.55

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.55-27.25
R2     27.90
R3     28.50-29.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US61.83/bbl, intraday low of US$60.58/bbl and settled up by 0.780% to close at US$61.58/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 62.00-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00 and targeting 62.70-63.50 and 64.45-65.00-66.00. Sell in between 62.50-66.45 with stop loss at 66.45; targeting 62.00-61.45-60.50 and 59.00-58.25-57.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.00-61.45
S2     60.80
S3     59.25-58.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.70¬-63.70
R2     64.55
R3     65.00-66.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.168 Sell
20-DMA   60.20 Buy
50-DMA   61.01 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1992/EUR, high of US$1.2068/EUR and settled the day down by 0.167% to close at US$1.2014/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1960-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.2010-1.2049-1.2090 and 1.2140-1.2200. Sell below 1.2010-1.2200 targeting 1.1960-1.1905-1.1800 and 1.1760-1.1705-1.1650 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2010-1.1960
S2     1.1905
S3     1.1800-1.1760

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2070-1.2140
R2     1.2200
R3     1.2240-1.2300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3884/GBP, high of US$1.3948/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0545% to close at US$1.3836/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3900-1.4180 with targets at 1.3860-1.3800 and 1.3745-1.3700-1.3650 stop-loss should be 1.4100. Buy above 1.3860-1.3700 with targets 1.3900-1.4010-1.4065 and 1.4100-1.4180 with stop loss closing below 1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3860-1.3800
S2     1.3747
S3     1.3700-1.3650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3900-1.4010
R2     1.4065
R3     1.4100-1.4180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3672 Buy
200-DMA   1.3314 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY107.80/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.22/USD and settled the day down by 0.098% at JPY107.95/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 110.50-108.00 with targets of 111.00-111.70-112.20 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.90-107.35
S2     106.50
S3     105.90-105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50-109.00
R2     110.00
R3     111.00-111.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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