AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar weakened in early European trading Monday, with risk sentiment on the rise as economic data point to a global economic recovery ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Risk appetite has been boosted of late by strong signs of a global economic improvement, to the detriment of the safe haven dollar, with early April manufacturing activity indicators, released late last week, hitting record highs in the United States and also showing impressive improvement in Europe. A survey from Germany's Ifo institute due later on Monday is expected to show business conditions continued to improve in Europe's largest economy. Attention this week will be centered around the latest policy-setting meeting of the Federal Reserve, with the two-day get together scheduled to finish on Wednesday. The European Central Bank maintained its very accommodative policies last week, with President Christine Lagarde shutting down expectations that the central bank will start to consider easing back its bond purchases any time soon. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to face questions over whether an improving labor market and rising coronavirus vaccinations warrant a withdrawal of monetary easing, but he is likely to take a very similar stance to Lagarde, shunning talk of tapering bond purchases.
  • The dollar slumped to an almost eight-week low versus major peers on Monday amid speculation that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will shun talk of tapering bond purchases at a policy meeting this week. The euro rose to a two-month high against the greenback before data later on Monday forecast to show an improvement in German business sentiment, which would bolster hopes for a brighter economic outlook. Powell is likely to face questions over whether an improving labour market and rising coronavirus vaccinations warrant a withdrawal of monetary easing, but most analysts expect him to say such talk is premature, which would put downward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar. The euro rose as high as $1.2117, adding to gains made on Friday after positive data on European services and manufacturing activity. A survey from Germany's Ifo institute due later on Monday is expected to show business conditions continued to improve in Europe's largest economy. The Fed's next meeting ends on Wednesday, and while no major policy changes are expected, investors will pay close attention to Powell's comments after the meeting. Rising coronavirus vaccination rates and an improving economic outlook are reasons to be optimistic, but many traders and analysts say Powell is likely to reiterate his commitment to keep easy policy in place for an extended period U.S. funds have been selling the dollar against the yen recently in Asian trading, which is an additional sign that major investors expect lower U.S. Treasury yields to push the dollar lower, some traders in Tokyo said. In emerging markets, traders are watching the Turkish lira to see if it will test its all-time low of 8.58 per dollar due to worsening relations with the United States and worries about a dovish central bank governor. The lira was last quoted at 8.4225.
  • Gold was up on Monday morning in Asia as the dollar weakened and investors await the U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision due to be handed down later in the week. The Fed’s decision, to be handed down on Wednesday, is widely expected to keep to the status quo. Investors will, however, monitor Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's replies to questions over whether an improving labor market and rising COVID-19 vaccinations could lead to a withdrawal of monetary easing. In Asia, the Bank of Japan will hand down its own policy decision on Tuesday. Investors injected $16.4 billion into global bond funds and $14.9 billion into money market funds for the week ending Apr. 21 according to Refinitiv Lipper data. Investors also turned to the safe-haven yellow metal as the number of COVID-19 cases continues to increase globally. In India, ever-increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases and the ensuing restrictions kept gold buyers away. Meanwhile, gold production in Zimbabwe also decreased 30% to 3.98 tons in the first quarter of 2021. Also on the supply front, mining companies Newmont and Barrick on Friday announced that its partnership in Chile will work with local communities to boost the development of its Norte Abierto gold-copper project.
  • Oil prices fell almost $1 on Monday on fears that surging COVID-19 cases in India will dent fuel demand in the world's third-biggest oil importer, while an expected supply increase from OPEC+ also added to pressure. India and Japan are world’s third and fourth biggest crude oil importers. India's new coronavirus infections hit a record peak for a fifth day on Monday as countries including Britain, Germany and the United States pledged to send urgent medical aid to help battle the crisis overwhelming its hospitals. Consultancy FGE expects gasoline demand in India to slip by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April and by more than 170,000 bpd in May. India's total gasoline sales came to nearly 747,000 bpd in March. Diesel demand, which at about 1.75 million bpd accounts for about 40% of refined fuel sales in India, may slump by 220,000 bpd in April and by another 400,000 bpd in May, FGE says. In Japan, a third state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka and two other prefectures began on Sunday, affecting nearly a quarter of the population as the country attempts to combat a surge in cases. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, will discuss output policy at a meeting this week, but most analysts believe it will go ahead with its decision to ease output restrictions from May. The group in a meeting at the start of April agreed to ease production curbs by 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May, another 350,000 bpd in June and a further 400,000 bpd or so in July.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,780-1,795 1,803 1,816-1,824
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.55 27.25 27.90-28.50
Crude Oil 61.45-62.00 62.70 63.70-64.55
EURO/USD 1.2140-1.2200 1.2240 1.2300-1.2350
GBP/USD 1.4010 1.4065 1.4100-1.4180
USD/JPY 108.50-109.00 110.00 111.00-111.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,770 1,763 1,754-1,741
Silver-XAG 25.60 24.70 23.90-23.55
Crude Oil 60.80-59.25 58.50 56.40-55.50
EURO/USD 1.2070-1.2010 1.1960 1.1905-1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3900-1.3860 1.3800 1.3747-1.3700
USD/JPY 107.50-107.00 106.50 105.90-105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (26th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1795.83/oz and low of US$1769.93/oz. Gold down 0.380% at US$1776.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1770-1741 with risk below 1741, targeting 1790-1803-1816 and 1824-1830. Sell below 1794-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1780-1770-1763 and 1754-1743.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,770
S2     1,763
S3     1,754-1,741
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,780-1,795
R2     1,803
R3     1,816-1,824

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$26.39/oz and low of US$25.83/oz settled down by 0.3904% at US$26.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.50-28.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.60
S2     24.70
S3     23.90-23.55

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.55
R2     27.25
R3     27.90-28.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US62.36/bbl, intraday low of US$61.20/bbl and settled up by 0.780% to close at US$61.98/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     60.80-59.25
S2     58.50
S3     56.40-55.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     61.45-62.00
R2     62.70
R3     63.70-64.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.168 Sell
20-DMA   60.20 Buy
50-DMA   61.01 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.2012/EUR, high of US$1.2099/EUR and settled the day down by 0.161% to close at US$1.2095/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.2070-1.1800 with risk below 1.1800, targeting 1.2140-1.2200-1.2240 and 1.2300-1.2350. Sell below 1.2140-1.2350 targeting 1.2070-1.2010-1.1960 and 1.1905-1.1800-1.1760 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2070-1.2010
S2     1.1960
S3     1.1905-1.1800

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2140-1.2200
R2     1.2240
R3     1.2300-1.2350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3831/GBP, high of US$1.3894/GBP and settled the day up by 0.258% to close at US$1.3872/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.4010-1.4180 with targets at 1.3900-1.3860-1.3800 and 1.3745-1.3700-1.3650 stop-loss should be 1.4100. Buy above 1.3900-1.3700 with targets 1.4010-1.4065 and 1.4100-1.4180 with stop loss closing below 1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3900-1.3860
S2     1.3800
S3     1.3747-1.3700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4010
R2     1.4065
R3     1.4100-1.4180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3732 Buy
200-DMA   1.3391 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY107.47/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.14/USD and settled the day down by 0.0583% at JPY107.89/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90. Long positions above 107.50-105.00 with targets of 108.50-109.00-110.00 and 111.00-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.50-107.00
S2     106.50
S3     105.90-105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50-109.00
R2     110.00
R3     111.00-111.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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