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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trading Tuesday, but remained near multi-week lows ahead of the start of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy decision meeting. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy-setting meeting, concluding on Wednesday, even if no changes to monetary policy is widely expected. The market will still pay close attention to comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who is likely to face questions over whether improving conditions warrant a withdrawal of monetary easing. There seems to be a real conviction that the global economy is on a recovery path, even with the Covid situation in India causing anxiety, and this is weighing on the dollar. June looks like being a much more significant FOMC meeting, as there will have been a number of months of likely strong economic data for the central bank to digest, and “the seven weeks between the April and June FOMC meetings is a long time to be sitting on the sidelines in defensive dollar positions when more attractive alternatives are available elsewhere,” ING added. Also of interest Tuesday will be the auction of $62-billion of seven-year U.S. Treasurys later in the session. A seven-year debt auction in February saw very weak demand, which sparked a dramatic rise in yields, helping the dollar push higher. However, the dollar has fallen nearly 3% since late March as U.S. Treasury yields traded in narrow ranges after retreating from a 14-month high of 1.776%, in the benchmark 10-year yield, slashing the currency's appeal. The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia but remained near multi-week lows as U.S. Treasury yields fell and investors consolidated positions ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. The Bank of Japan also kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.10% when it handed down its policy decision earlier in the day, in line with investor expectations. Investors now await the Fed’s decision, due on Wednesday, and will pay particular attention to comments from Chairman Jerome Powell, who will likely face questions on whether the improved economic outlook warrants a withdrawal of monetary easing by the central bank. However, some investors expect Powell to dismiss such talk, which could potentially put further downward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar. The yen showed a muted response after the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy on hold as widely expected. Additionally, no change to policy is expected when the Federal Open Market Committee ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday. However, the market will pay close attention to comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who is likely to face questions over whether improving conditions warrant a withdrawal of monetary easing. Most analysts though expect him to say such talk is premature, which could put downward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar. The yen showed a muted response after the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy on hold as widely expected. Additionally, no change to policy is expected when the Federal Open Market Committee ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday However, the market will pay close attention to comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who is likely to face questions over whether improving conditions warrant a withdrawal of monetary easing. Most analysts though expect him to say such talk is premature, which could put downward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar.
  • Gold was down on Tuesday morning in Asia as investors await U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision, which will be handed down on Apr.29. Investors will mainly focus on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's outlook on the economy, but no major surprises are expected in the central bank’s decision. Meanwhile, demand for U.S.-made capital goods rose in March and shipments surged, indicating that the accelerated economic growth in the first quarter due to government aid and increasing rates of COVID-19 vaccination gave demand a boost. In Asia, the Bank of Japan will hand down its own policy decision later in the day, with the central bank expected to maintain its massive stimulus measures and inflation also predicted to miss its 2% target for years to come. The country’s imposition of a state of emergency on Tokyo, Osaka, Hyogo and Kyoto prefectures earlier in the week to curb the rising number of COVID-19 cases also casts a shadow over its recent economic growth on the back of solid global demand. India, meanwhile, ordered its armed forces to help battle against COVID-19 on Monday, as the number of cases topped 17.3 million as of Apr. 27 according to Johns Hopkins University data.
  • Oil prices bounced back early on Tuesday from drops in the previous session, but gains were seen likely capped by growing concern about fuel demand in India, the world's third-biggest crude importer now slammed by spiralling new coronavirus cases. The Indian government ordered the country's military to help respond to the surging coronavirus infections, with countries including Britain, Germany and the United States promising aid as the emergency overwhelms hospitals. India's woes comes as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, a group known as OPEC+, are set to discuss policy on production at a meeting this week. The OPEC+ joint technical committee has maintained a forecast for growth in oil demand growth this year, but has concerns about the surging COVID-19 cases in India and elsewhere, three sources from the producer group told Reuters. The Indian government also sprang into action, ordering its armed forces to deal with COVID-19 as the number of cases topped 17.3 million as of Apr. 27, according to Johns Hopkins University data. On the supply front, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+)’s joint technical committee has maintained a forecast of increasing oil demand in 2021. However, the committee reportedly remains concerned about the surge of COVID-19 cases in India and elsewhere, as it prepares to discuss policy on production at its Wednesday meeting. Investors also await U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,780-1,795 1,803 1,816-1,824
Silver-XAG 26.55 27.25 27.90-28.50
Crude Oil 62.70-63.70 64.55 65.30-66.40
EURO/USD 1.2140-1.2200 1.2240 1.2300-1.2350
GBP/USD 1.3900-1.4010 1.4065 1.4100-1.4180
USD/JPY 108.50-109.00 110.00 111.00-111.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,770 1,763 1,754-1,741
Silver-XAG 26.05-25.60 24.70 23.90-23.55
Crude Oil 62.00-61.45 60.80 59.25-58.50
EURO/USD 1.2070-1.2010 1.1960 1.1905-1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3860 1.3800 1.3747-1.3700
USD/JPY 107.50-107.00 106.50 105.90-105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (27th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1783.43/oz and low of US$1768.67/oz. Gold up 0.313% at US$1781.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1770-1741 with risk below 1741, targeting 1790-1803-1816 and 1824-1830. Sell below 1794-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1780-1770-1763 and 1754-1743.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,770
S2     1,763
S3     1,754-1,741
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,780-1,795
R2     1,803
R3     1,816-1,824

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$26.20/oz and low of US$25.84/oz settled up by 0.816% at US$26.18/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.50-28.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     26.05-25.60
S2     24.70
S3     23.90-23.55

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.55
R2     27.25
R3     27.90-28.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US62.24/bbl, intraday low of US$60.61/bbl and settled down by 0.299% to close at US$61.88/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 62.00-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00 and targeting 62.70-63.50 and 64.45-65.00-66.00. Sell in between 62.50-66.45 with stop loss at 66.45; targeting 62.00-61.45-60.50 and 59.00-58.25-57.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.00-61.45
S2     60.80
S3     59.25-58.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.70-63.70
R2     64.55
R3     65.30-66.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.168 Sell
20-DMA   60.20 Buy
50-DMA   61.01 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.2060/EUR, high of US$1.2116/EUR and settled the day down by 0.049% to close at US$1.2084/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.2140-1.2350 targeting 1.2070-1.2010-1.1960 and 1.1905-1.1800-1.1760 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2400. Buy above 1.2070-1.1800 with risk below 1.1800, targeting 1.2140-1.2200-1.2240 and 1.2300-1.2350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2070-1.2010
S2     1.1960
S3     1.1905-1.1800

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2140-1.2200
R2     1.2240
R3     1.2300-1.2350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3859/GBP, high of US$1.3928/GBP and settled the day up by 0.257% to close at US$1.3895/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.4010-1.4180 with targets at 1.3900-1.3860-1.3800 and 1.3745-1.3700-1.3650 stop-loss should be 1.4100. Buy above 1.3900-1.3700 with targets 1.4010-1.4065 and 1.4100-1.4180 with stop loss closing below 1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3860
S2     1.3800
S3     1.3747-1.3700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3900-1.4010
R2     1.4065
R3     1.4100-1.4180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3732 Buy
200-DMA   1.3391 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY107.63/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.19/USD and settled the day up by 0.161% at JPY108.07/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 107.50-105.00 with targets of 108.50-109.00-110.00 and 111.00-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 108.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.50-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.50-107.00
S2     106.50
S3     105.90-105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50-109.00
R2     110.00
R3     111.00-111.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

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