AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday as investors moved to the sidelines ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy statement and a speech by Joe Biden later in the day where the U.S. president is set to announce more stimulus plans. Though the greenback recovered from a one-month low hit earlier this week, investors expect the U.S. central bank to maintain its policy settings and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is seen as likely to repeat his dovish message. Investors' inflation expectations, measured by the break-even inflation rate calculated from U.S. inflation-linked bonds, rose above 2.40% on Tuesday, the highest level since 2013. But analysts expect the Fed will remain unperturbed by the prospects of more stimulus plans and rising inflation expectations, holding the prospect of more losses for the greenback in the coming week. Biden is expected to roll out a plan to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, including the largest-ever increase in levies on investment gains, to fund about $1 trillion in childcare and other social spending.
  • The dollar edged higher in early European trading Wednesday, trying to extend its recovery from two-month lows ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. The dollar's recent decline has been largely based on the market starting to believe that the Federal Reserve will look through rises in inflation and delay future policy tightening even as the U.S. economy rapidly recovers. With this in mind, attention now turns to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy-setting meeting later Wednesday, and in particular the accompanying comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell given the U.S. central bank is widely expected to maintain its policy settings. Analysts at Nordea agree that this meeting is too soon for the central bank to start talking about easing back on its asset purchases, but think that the discussion could start sooner than currently expected as the country’s vaccination program continues at a fierce pace. Away from the Fed, President Biden's first address to a joint session of Congress, also later Wednesday, will attract attention as he is expected to roll out his tax-raising plans. The dollar was up on Wednesday morning in Asia ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and U.S. President Joe Biden’s address in front of a joint session of Congress, both due to take place later in the day. Although the dollar rebounded from its lowest level since Mar.3 hit on Monday, skepticism remains on whether its downward trend since late March is over. Receding bets on whether the Fed will start laying the groundwork for a future policy tightening soon when its hands down its decision, also contributed to the U.S. currency’s decline. Although the central bank is expected to maintain its dovish policy, some investors suggested that signs of rising inflation expectations could nudge it to abandon the stance sooner than expected. The break-even inflation rate rose above 2.40%, its highest level since 2013, on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve said last year it aims to bring average inflation around 2% and to allow it to overshoot above 2%, rather than trying to cap it around 2%. Investors are also paying attention to Biden's address, his first as president, for more details on his prosed tax hike for the wealthiest Americans to fund about $1 trillion in childcare.
  • Gold was down on Wednesday morning in Asia against rising U.S. Treasury yields. Investors also await the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy decision for further clues on the direction of the central bank's monetary policy. The Fed will hand down its decision later in the day. Investors will also monitor U.S. President Joe Biden’s address to a joint session of Congress on the same day for clues on further stimulus measures. The Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence index also rose to 121.7, a 14-month high, in April. Increasing COVID-19 vaccination rates and additional fiscal stimulus measures, allowing more business to reopen, also contributed to a stronger economic recovery. In Asia, Japan’s retail sales rose 5.2% in March year-on-year, the fastest pace in five months. The figure was higher than both the 4.7% increase in forecasts prepared by Investing.com and February's 1.5% contraction. The rosier economic outlook saw investors turn away from the safe-haven yellow metal On the COVID-19 front, the U.S. will assist India in dealing with the latter’s record numbers of COVID-19 cases, which topped 17.6 million cases as of Apr. 28, according to Johns Hopkins University data. In other precious metals, silver fell 0.9% and platinum slid 1%, while palladium eased after hitting a record high of $2,941 on Monday.
  • Oil was down Wednesday morning in Asia, as investors digested an Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decision to increase crude oil supply. The cartel’s decision comes as the surge of COVID-19 cases in countries including India continues to cast a shadow over fuel demand. OPEC+'s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee agreed on Tuesday to increase global crude oil supply from May onwards after revising its demand growth forecasts for 2021 the day before. British oil and gas company BP (NYSE:BP) Plc. also expects a strong recovery for the market. OPEC+ will reportedly skip its scheduled full ministerial meeting, due to have taken place later in the day, after announcing its decision and will next meet on Jun. 1. Crude oil demand is reportedly set to record its biggest climb in the next six months due to increased COVID-19 vaccination rates in Europe. Meanwhile, the flare-up of COVID-19 cases globally, including in India and Brazil, continues to raise concerns over near-term demand. Also on the supply side, U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a build of 4.319 million barrels for the week ending Apr. 23. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com predicted a 375,000-barrel build, while a 436,000-barrel build was recorded during the previous week. Investors await crude oil supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, due later in the day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,780-1,795 1,803 1,816-1,824
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.55 27.25 27.90-28.50
Crude Oil 63.70 64.55 65.30-66.40
EURO/USD 1.2140-1.2200 1.2240 1.2300-1.2350
GBP/USD 1.3900-1.4010 1.4065 1.4100-1.4180
USD/JPY 109.00 110.00 111.00-111.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,763-1,754 1,741 1,780-1,795
Silver-XAG 25.60 24.70 23.90-23.55
Crude Oil 62.70-62.00 61.45 60.80-59.25
EURO/USD 1.2070-1.2010 1.1960 1.1905-1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3860 1.3800 1.3747-1.3700
USD/JPY 107.00 107.00 106.50-105.90

Intra-Day Strategy (28th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1785.50/oz and low of US$1773.63/oz. Gold down 0.258% at US$1776.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1763-1741 with risk below 1741, targeting 1780-1790-1803-1816 and 1824-1830. Sell below 1780-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1763-1754-1743 and 1718-1705.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,763-1,754
S2     1,741
S3     1,780-1,795
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,780-1,795
R2     1,803
R3     1,816-1,824

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1726.62 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$26.44/oz and low of US$26.03/oz settled up by 0.187% at US$26.24/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.50-28.50 with stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 24.70-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.60
S2     24.70
S3     23.90-23.55

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.55
R2     27.25
R3     27.90-28.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US63.21/bbl, intraday low of US$61.85/bbl and settled down by 1.681% to close at US$62.94/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 62.70-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00 and targeting 63.50-64.45 and 65.00-66.00. Sell in between 63.50-66.45 with stop loss at 66.45; targeting 62.00-61.45-60.50 and 59.00-58.25-57.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.70-62.00
S2     61.45
S3     60.80-59.25

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     63.70
R2     64.55
R3     65.30-66.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.168 Sell
20-DMA   60.20 Buy
50-DMA   61.01 Buy
100-DMA   51.51 Buy
200-DMA   45.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.2056/EUR, high of US$1.2092/EUR and settled the day down by 0.049% to close at US$1.2088/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.2140-1.2350 targeting 1.2070-1.2010-1.1960 and 1.1905-1.1800-1.1760 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2400. Buy above 1.2070-1.1800 with risk below 1.1800, targeting 1.2140-1.2200-1.2240 and 1.2300-1.2350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2070-1.2010
S2     1.1960
S3     1.1905-1.1800

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2140-1.2200
R2     1.2240
R3     1.2300-1.2350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3857/GBP, high of US$1.3923/GBP and settled the day up by 0.086% to close at US$1.3907/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.4010-1.4180 with targets at 1.3900-1.3860-1.3800 and 1.3745-1.3700-1.3650 stop-loss should be 1.4100. Buy above 1.3900-1.3700 with targets 1.4010-1.4065 and 1.4100-1.4180 with stop loss closing below 1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3860
S2     1.3800
S3     1.3747-1.3700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3900-1.4010
R2     1.4065
R3     1.4100-1.4180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3732 Buy
200-DMA   1.3391 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.06/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.76/USD and settled the day down by 0.562% at JPY108.68/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 109.00-110.00 and 111.00-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 109.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 108.50-108.00 and 107.50-106.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-105.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.00
R2     110.00
R3     111.00-111.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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