AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher Friday, but remains near multi-week lows and was set for a fourth consecutive week of losses with the U.S. Federal Reserve retaining its dovish monetary policy even as the economy recovers. The index is on course to end the week 0.2% lower, bringing its losses for April to 2.8%. A four-week losing streak would be the longest since the six-week slide to the end of July. In part that's because of the gains of commodity currencies, amid surging prices for both industrial and agricultural products. The dollar's biggest losses this week have been against the Canadian and New Zealand dollars. This dollar weakness was helped by the decision of the Federal Reserve to leave its ultra easy monetary policies in place even while it acknowledged that there had been an improvement in the economic conditions, as typified by first-quarter GDP growth of 6.4%, released Thursday. Evidence of that coming rebound in Europe came with the release of the first-quarter French GDP figure earlier Friday, with output in the euro area’s second-largest economy growing 0.4% in the three months through March.
  • The USD/CNY pair inched down 0.04% to 6.4684. China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April was 51.1, while the non-manufacturing PMI was 54.9. The Caixin manufacturing PMI for April was 51.9 and the Caixin services PMI is due in the following week. The greenback’s losses were its Canadian counterpart’s gains, with the latter climbing to a more-than-three-year high against the U.S. dollar on Friday. Investors are still digesting the Fed’s latest policy decision, handed down on Wednesday. Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged the U.S. economy's growth, he added that there was not yet enough evidence of "substantial further progress" toward recovery to justify a change in policy. Optimism that signs of economic recovery, particularly in the labor market, could force the Fed into tapering its asset purchases earlier than expected, drove DXY to a five-month high in March 2021. The gauge is likely to drop below 90 in the near term, from 90.6 currently, but the "DXY's depreciation trend is likely more of an ongoing grind than a wholesale sharp setback," the note added. Data released on Thursday said that the U.S. GDP rose 6.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2021 and 553,000 initial jobless claims were filed over the past week. The Fed’s stance contrasts with that of its northern neighbor. The Bank of Canada has already begun tapering its asset purchases, and the commodity-linked Canadian dollar got a further boost from rising oil prices, which were at a six-week high. The prices also boosted the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are also linked to commodities. Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, with investors digesting a slew of economic data as the month of April ends. The U.S. GDP rose 6.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2021 and 553,000 initial jobless claims were filed over the past week, with government support such as money to mostly low-income households driving Thursday’s positive data. Investors also continue to monitor progress on a $1.8 trillion stimulus plan proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden earlier in the week. In Asia, China recorded a slowing pace of growth ahead of a weeklong holiday beginning on Saturday. Data released earlier in the day said that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April was 51.1 and the non-manufacturing PMI was 54.9. The Caixin manufacturing PMI for April was 51.9 and the Caixin services PMI is due in the following week. In Japan, industrial production increased 2.2% month-on-month in March and the Tokyo core Consumer Price Index contracted 0.2% year-on-year in April.
  • Oil was down Friday morning in Asia, but still headed towards a weekly gain as signs of strengthening U.S. and China demand raised fuel demand hopes. Major cities in the U.S. are moving towards a full re-open, with New York City aiming to do so in July 2021. In Asia, a weeklong holiday in China beginning Saturday is expected to see travel numbers hit record highs. However, the COVID-19 shadow has not completely lifted, as countries such as India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, and Brazil continue to see a record number of cases. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) also issued a warning earlier in the week that surging COVID-19 cases could derail fuel demand. OPEC+ added to a slew of bullish calls on the outlook issued throughout the week by raising its consumption estimates for 2021. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) forecasted oil demand will post a record jump COVID-19 vaccination rates increase. On the supply side, the cartel is set to ease its current production curbs from May onwards, and other short-term risks to the demand outlook are starting to become visible. The Middle Eastern Dubai benchmark’s structure flipped to a slight contango on Thursday, indicating that market tightness may be easing. Oil headed for a weekly gain -- after topping $65 a barrel on Thursday -- as signs of strengthening demand from the U.S. to China stoked optimism the demand recovery from the pandemic is accelerating. Futures in New York edged lower Friday, but are up more than 4% this week. Major American cities are moving to fully reopen, travel across China over an extended holiday that starts Saturday is expected to reach a record, and sales of transport fuels in the U.K. are climbing. Big oil companies are also starting to reap the rewards of the recovery. There’s been a raft of bullish calls on the market this week, with the OPEC+ alliance raising its consumption estimates for this year and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). predicting oil demand will post a record jump as vaccination rates increase. The coronavirus is still looming over the market, however, with a resurgence in regions such as India clouding the near-term outlook.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th April 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,780-1,795 1,803 1,816-1,824
Silver-XAG 26.05-26.55 27.25 27.90-28.50
Crude Oil 64.55-65.30 66.40 67.00-67.80
EURO/USD 1.2140-1.2200 1.2300-1.2350 1.2300-1.2350
GBP/USD 1.4010 1.4065 1.4100-1.4180
USD/JPY 109.00 110.00 111.00-111.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th April 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,763-1,754 1,741 1,718-1,705
Silver-XAG 25.60 24.70 23.90-23.55
Crude Oil 63.70-62.70 62.00 61.45-60.80
EURO/USD 1.2070-1.2010 1.1960 1.1905-1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3900-1.3860 1.3800 1.3747-1.3700
USD/JPY 108.50-107.50 107.00 106.50-105.90

Intra-Day Strategy (30th April 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1789.85/oz and low of US$1756.09/oz. Gold down 0.531% at US$1771.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1780-1741 with risk below 1741, targeting 1790-1803-1816 and 1824-1830. Sell below 1780-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1763-1754-1743 and 1718-1705.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,763-1,754
S2     1,741
S3     1,718-1,705
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,780-1,795
R2     1,803
R3     1,816-1,824

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.752

Buy
20-DMA   1766.69 Sell
50-DMA  

1766.69

Sell
100-DMA   1812.42 Sell
200-DMA   1857.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.276 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$26.46/oz and low of US$25.69/oz settled down by 0.530% at US$26.08/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 26.00-28.50 with stop loss above 28.50; targeting 25.60-24.70-24.45 and 23.90-23.50-23.00. Buy silver in between 25.60-22.60, targeting 26.05-26.50 and 27.25- 28.20-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.60
S2     24.70
S3     23.90-23.55

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.05-26.55
R2     27.25
R3     27.90-28.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.994 Buy
20-DMA   25.99 Sell
50-DMA   26.36 Sell
100-DMA   25.59 Sell
200-DMA   24.49 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.151 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US65.37/bbl, intraday low of US$63.57/bbl and settled up by 1.780% to close at US$64.75/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 63.70-58.00 with risk daily closing below 58.00 and targeting 64.45-65.30-66.00 and 66.40-67.00-67.80. Sell in between 64.55-67.80 with stop loss at 68.00; targeting 63.70-62.90-62.00 and 61.45-60.50-59.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.70¬-62.70
S2     62.00
S3     61.45-60.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.55-65.30
R2     66.40
R3     67.00-67.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.168 Sell
20-DMA   61.49 Buy
50-DMA   61.80 Buy
100-DMA   48.96 Buy
200-DMA   48.96 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.188 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.2101/EUR, high of US$1.2133/EUR and settled the day up by 0.298% to close at US$1.2119/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.2140-1.2350 targeting 1.2070-1.2010-1.1960 and 1.1905-1.1800-1.1760 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2400. Buy above 1.2070-1.1800 with risk below 1.1800, targeting 1.2140-1.2200-1.2240 and 1.2300-1.2350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2070-1.2010
S2     1.1960
S3     1.1905-1.1800

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2140-1.2200
R2     1.2300-1.2350
R3     1.2300-1.2350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.812 Buy
20-DMA   1.1842 Sell
50-DMA   1.1962 Sell
100-DMA   1.2047 Sell
200-DMA   1.1892 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3928/GBP, high of US$1.3975/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0394% to close at US$1.3938/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.4010-1.4180 with targets at 1.3900-1.3860-1.3800 and 1.3745-1.3700-1.3650 stop-loss should be 1.4100. Buy above 1.3900-1.3700 with targets 1.4010-1.4065 and 1.4100-1.4180 with stop loss closing below 1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3900-1.3860
S2     1.3800
S3     1.3747-1.3700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4010
R2     1.4065
R3     1.4100-1.4180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

1.3820

Buy
20-DMA   1.3820 Buy
50-DMA   1.3852 Buy
100-DMA   1.3732 Buy
200-DMA   1.3391 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY108.56/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.21/USD and settled the day down by 0.0579% at JPY108.91/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 109.00-110.00 and 111.00-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 109.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 108.50-108.00 and 107.50-106.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.50
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-105.90

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.00
R2     110.00
R3     111.00-111.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.407 Buy
20-DMA   109.48 Sell
50-DMA   107.72 Sell
100-DMA   105.79 Sell
200-DMA   105.70 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   31.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.508 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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