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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar traded lower in early European trade Friday, heading for a weekly loss as concerns eased over Federal Reserve members discussing potentially tapering back bond buying. The dollar has given back a bounce it made after a mention of possible future tapering discussions, in minutes from the Fed's April meeting, prompted fears of early rate rises. Data released on Thursday showed that U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 444,000 over the past week, a new post-pandemic low, adding to evidence of a steady recovery in the labor market. That said, the number of continuing claims, which are measured with a one-week time lag to initial ones, rose by over 100,000, suggesting the recovery still has some way to go Sterling is heading for a third consecutive weekly gain and has climbed 2.6% during May so far.
  • The dollar hovered around recent lows on Friday and was set to notch a modest weekly drop as traders' concerns at taper talk in Federal Reserve minutes faded, though a pullback in commodity prices and nerves about virus outbreaks kept losses in check. The dollar has given back a bounce it made after a mention of possible future tapering discussions, in minutes from the Fed's April meeting, prompted fears of early rate rises. Investors now figure that any action remains a long way away and that the path might again be clear for a resumption of April's downtrend as the U.S. trade and account deficits weigh. Against the euro the dollar was parked at $1.2230, not far above the four-month low $1.2245 it hit earlier in the week and close to testing major support around $1.2345. The dollar index was held below 90 and was last at 89.777. Lingering doubts about the Fed as well as worry about new COVID-19 outbreaks and curbs to contain them in Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam and Singapore held most of the majors steady in Asia Sterling, which is heading for a third consecutive weekly gain and has climbed 2.6% during May so far, was pinned just short of multi-year highs as traders await retail sales and Purchasing Managers' Index data due later on Friday. April figures may be depressed by lockdowns, but the hope is that Britain's reopening this week is going to lay a solid foundation for recovery in a population where just shy of three-quarters of adults have had their first inoculation shots. Left behind in all the recent focus on inflation, tapering and future hikes has been the Japanese yen. It is near its weakest in three years at 133.02 per euro and is poised for a fifth consecutive weekly loss against the common currency. The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia, staying near milestone lows and set to record a weekly loss. Investors’ risk appetite increased as concerns about the U.S. Federal Reserve's hint of tapering eased, and economic recovery from COVID-19 gave other currencies a boost against the greenback The GBP/USD pair inched down 0.03% to 1.4185 as investors await U.K. retail sales data for April due later in the day. The U.K. will also release its composite, manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes for May. In the U.S., data released on Thursday showed that the initial jobless claims fell to 444,000 over the past week, below 450,000 claims in forecasts prepared by Investing.com and 478,000 reading filed during the previous week. Investors also seem less concerned about the Fed’s minutes from its latest meeting, released on Wednesday, which hinted at a scale-back of asset purchases.
  • Oil prices nudged up on Friday, recovering from three days of losses as investors braced for the return of Iranian crude supplies after officials said Iran and world powers made progress on talks to revive a 2015 nuclear deal. For the week, however, both contracts are down nearly 5% and on track to post their biggest weekly loss since March after Iran's president said the United States was ready to lift sanctions on his country's oil, banking and shipping sectors. Iran and world powers have been in talks since April on reviving the deal and the European Union official leading the discussions said on Wednesday he was confident a deal would be reached. Still, investors remain upbeat about fuel demand recovery this summer as vaccination programmes in Europe and the United States would allow more people to travel, although rising cases across parts of Asia could weigh on that region's consumption. Option bets on oil prices rising above $100 for the December 2021 Brent contract have jumped after last week's surprisingly strong U.S. inflation data, with open interest on calls nearly tripling in May, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) analysts said. The bank's forecast is for Brent to end 2021 at $74. To reach $100, demand would need to average above 102.6 million bpd in the third quarter and grow to 103.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter, JPMorgan said, in the absence of any additional OPEC+ supply response. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, chief executive of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, said on Thursday that oil demand has risen to 95 million bpd. The bank expects Iranian crude and condensate production to rise to 3.2 million bpd in December, from around 2.8 million bpd in the first quarter, and only reach full capacity of 4.2 million bpd in early 2023. Oil prices are on track to record their biggest weekly loss since March as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to reviving a 2015 nuclear deal that could lift sanctions on Iran’s oil, banking and shipping sectors, and thus boost Iranian crude supply. Enrique Mora, the European Union official in charge of coordinating diplomacy in Vienna for the nuclear talks, said he was confident a deal, in the works since April 2020, could be reached. On the demand side, investors remain optimistic about fuel demand outlook heading into the peak summer travel season due to accelerating COVID-19 vaccination rates in Europe and the U.S. However, the COVID-19 outbreaks in parts of Asia continue to cast a shadow on fuel demand.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st May 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,876 1,884 1,890-1,900
Silver-XAG 27.90-28.50 28.90 29.50-30.10
Crude Oil 62.60-63.70 64.55 65.30-65.90
EURO/USD 1.2240 1.2300 1.2350-1.2400
GBP/USD 1.4240-1.4300 1.4360 1.4400-1.4500
USD/JPY 109.00-109.70 110.20 110.90-111.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st May 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,865-1,854 1,844 1,824-1,816
Silver-XAG 27.25 26.55 26.00-25.60
Crude Oil 62.00-61.10 59.50 58.40-57.60
EURO/USD 1.2200-1.2140 1.2070 1.2010-1.1960
GBP/USD 1.4180-1.4090 1.4065 1.4010-1.3900
USD/JPY 108.50 107.50 107.00-106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (21st May 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1883.76/oz and low of US$1863.79/oz. Gold up 0.402% at US$1876.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 200DMA (1858) and breakage above will call for 1916. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1865-1800 with risk below 1795, targeting 1874-1880 and 1890-1900. Sell below 1874-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1864-1852-1844 and 1824-1816-1803.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,865-1,854
S2     1,844
S3     1,824-1,816
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,876
R2     1,884
R3     1,890-1,900

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.752

Buy
20-DMA   1782.15 Buy
50-DMA  

1748.10

Buy
100-DMA   1796.61 Buy
200-DMA   1851.57 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   88.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   12.276 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$27.99/oz and low of US$27.38/oz settled up by 0.0613% at US$27.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 27.90-30.10 with stop loss above 30.10; targeting 27.25-26.55-26.00 and 25.60-24.70-24.45. Buy silver in between 27.25-25.00, targeting 27.90-28.35 and 28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 25.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     27.25
S2     26.55
S3     26.00-25.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     27.90-28.50
R2     28.90
R3     29.50-30.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.037 Buy
20-DMA   26.96 Sell
50-DMA   26.06 Sell
100-DMA   26.25 Sell
200-DMA   25.64 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.436 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$63.89/bbl, intraday low of US$61.63/bbl and settled down by 2.487% to close at US$61.73/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 48.34 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 45.74. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 62.00-57.60 with risk daily closing below 57.60 and targeting 62.60-63.70-64.55 and 65.30-65.90. Sell in between 62.60-65.90 with stop loss at 65.90; targeting 62.00-61.10-59.50 and 58.40-57.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     62.00-61.10
S2     59.50
S3     58.40-57.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.60-63.70
R2     64.55
R3     65.30-65.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.168 Sell
20-DMA   63.35 Buy
50-DMA   62.30 Buy
100-DMA   58.16 Buy
200-DMA   49.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.097 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.2168/EUR, high of US$1.2228/EUR and settled the day up by 0.457% to close at US$1.2226/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.2028), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and still giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.2200-1.2490 targeting 1.2140-1.2070-1.2010 and 1.1960-1.1905-1.1800 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2400. Buy above 1.2140-1.1800 with risk below 1.1800, targeting 1.2200-1.2240 and 1.2300-1.2350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2200-1.2140
S2     1.2070
S3     1.2010-1.1960

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2240
R2     1.2300
R3     1.2350-1.2400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.621 Buy
20-DMA   1.2050 Buy
50-DMA   1.1948 Buy
100-DMA   1.2047 Buy
200-DMA   1.1946 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4100/GBP, high of US$1.4191/GBP and settled the day down by 0.541% to close at US$1.1.4188/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3610) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.4240-1.4490 with targets at 1.4180-1.4100-1.4065 and 1.4010-1.3900-1.3800 stop-loss should be 1.4360. Buy above 1.4180-1.3900 with targets 1.4240-1.4300aa and 1.4360-1.4400 with stop loss closing below 1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.4180-1.4090
S2     1.4065
S3     1.4010-1.3900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4240-1.4300
R2     1.4360
R3     1.4400-1.4500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.3892 Buy
50-DMA   1.3858 Buy
100-DMA   1.3785 Buy
200-DMA   1.3447 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0022 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY108.74/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.32/USD and settled the day up 0.289% at JPY108.75/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 108.50-106.50 with targets of 109.00-109.70-110.20 and 110.90-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 109.70-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 109.00-108.50-108.00 and 107.50-106.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50
S2     107.50
S3     107.00-106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.00-109.70
R2     110.20
R3     110.90-111.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.407 Buy
20-DMA   108.83 Sell
50-DMA   109.07 Sell
100-DMA   106.99 Sell
200-DMA   106.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   51.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Sell

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