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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia. However, a softer-than-expected U.S. employment report for May put the greenback under gentle pressure as the week opens. The yuan staged a comeback to again trade stronger than 6.4 per dollar and last bought 6.3880 offshore. Chinese trade data that is due later in the day could provide clues on the fundamental forces behind the yuan's recent rapid rise Non-farm payrolls rose by 559,000 in May according to Friday’s U.S. employment report, below the 650,000 in forecasts prepared by Investing.com but above April’s 278,000 reading. May’s unemployment rate was at a better-than-expected 5.8%, and the data helped calm worries about an earlier-than-expected asset tapering by the U.S. Federal Reserve for now. The worries had pushed a small increase in short bets against the dollar during the past week, even as Fed officials maintained that the economic recovery from COVID-19 still has a long way to go and that they expected to maintain their current dovish policy. Investors’ focus is now on the consumer price index (CPI) figures due later in the week. The figures could influence the Fed’s next move as it further gauges current price pressures. A lower-than-expected figure could mean further declines for the U.S. currency. Investors also await the European Central Bank (ECB)’s latest policy decision, due to be handed down on Thursday, with the Fed’s own June meeting scheduled for Jun. 15 to 16. The focus will be squarely on whether the ECB will begin tapering its bond-buying program. However, this is partly due to resolute dovishness from several members, setting the stage for debate inside the meeting that could deliver a small slowdown in the pace of bond buying, the note added.
  • The dollar fell on Friday after U.S. nonfarm payrolls data showed hiring increased in May as the pandemic eased, but not as much as expected, tempering expectations the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy sooner, rather than later. The softer-than-expected report means there is no urgency for the Fed to begin tapering its monthly purchase of $120 billion in bonds to support the economy, he said. Despite May's gain, nonfarm payrolls remained 5%, or 7.6 million jobs, below their pre-crisis level, Jocelyn Paquet, an economist at the National Bank of Canada (OTC:NTIOF), said in a client note. Foreign exchange strategists in a Reuters poll were almost evenly split on the dollar's near-term direction following two months of broad weakness, as they await clearer signs from policymakers. The dollar had rallied on Thursday, notching up its biggest daily gain in a month, after weekly U.S. jobless claims fell below 400,000 for the first time since the pandemic started more than a year ago and private payrolls increased by significantly more than expected. U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order on Thursday that bans U.S. entities from investing in dozens of Chinese companies with alleged ties to defense or surveillance technology sectors, a move his administration says expands the scope of a legally flawed Trump-era order. Tesla's big position in bitcoin and Musk's large personal following often set crypto markets on edge whenever he tweets.
  • Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia after lower-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data released during the previous week eased investors’ concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve would tighten its current dovish monetary policy. Data released on Friday said that non-farm payrolls in May increased to 559,000, higher than April’s 278,000 reading but below 650,000 figure in forecasts prepared by Investing.com. The lower-than-expected figure eased investors’ concerns about potential runaway inflation and earlier-than-expected interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that U.S. President Joe Biden’s $4 trillion spending plan would be good for the U.S. even if it results in inflation that persists into 2022 and interest rate hikes. Investors now await the European Central Bank's policy decision, due to be handed down on Thursday. The Fed is also scheduled to meet from Jun. 15 to 16. On the demand front, India, the second-largest gold consumer globally, posted the biggest discounts in eight and a half months last week as the number of COVID-19 cases in India topped 28.8 million as of Jun 7, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
  • Oil was down Monday morning in Asia, as investors await talks between Iran and world powers later in the week that could lead to increased Iranian supplies. Investors could have sold off some contracts to take profit when WTI futures hit the $70 mark, according to Avtar Sandu, a senior commodities manager at Phillips Futures. Talks between Iran and world powers in reviving a 2015 nuclear deal have been delayed, with the fifth round of talks to take place on Jun. 10 in Vienna. The European Union envoy coordinating the discussion had expected that they would strike a deal this week, however, other senior diplomats have said it still has a long way to go. Analysts expect Iran will increase its production by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day once a deal is sealed. Investors expected that fuel demand will surpass supplies in the second half of 2021 even if OPEC+ is gradually easing the supply cuts. Oil prices have jumped over 40% this year due to demand rebound in the U.S., Europe and China as governments are lifting COVID-19 restrictions. However, the recent outbreak of COVID-19 cases in parts of the world indicated an uneven demand recovery In the U.S., the number of oil and natural rigs operating dropped for the first time in six weeks due to a slowdown of growth in drilling.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th June 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,900-1,910 1,920 1,929-1,940
Silver-XAG 27.90-28.50 28.90 29.50-30.10
Crude Oil 69.30 69.70-70.50 71.00
EURO/USD 1.2170-1.2240 1.2300 1.2350-1.2400
GBP/USD 1.4200 1.4240 1.4300-1.4360
USD/JPY 110.20-110.90 111.70 112.50-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th June 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,890-1,884 1,876-1,865 1,856-1,845
Silver-XAG 27.55-27.25 26.55 26.00-25.60
Crude Oil 68.50-67.90 67.00 66.10-65.30
EURO/USD 1.2140-1.2100 1.2070 1.2010-1.1950
GBP/USD 1.4150-1.4090 1.4065 1.4010-1.3900
USD/JPY 109.70-109.00 108.50 107.50-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (7th June 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1896.08/oz and low of US$1855.68/oz. Gold up 1.074% at US$1890.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1843) and breakage below will call for 1800. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1890-1845 with risk below 1845, targeting 1900-1910-1920 and 1929-1940. Sell below 1900-1940 keeping stop loss closing above 1940, targeting 1884-1876-1864 and 1856-1845-1836.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,890-1,884
S2     1,876-1,865
S3     1,856-1,845
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,900-1,910
R2     1,920
R3     1,929-1,940

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.420

Buy
20-DMA   1873.61 Buy
50-DMA  

1805.67

Buy
100-DMA   1795.01 Buy
200-DMA   1842.37 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   45.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   26.276 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$27.83/oz and low of US$27.21/oz settled up by 1.173% at US$27.75/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 27.90-30.10 with stop loss above 30.10; targeting 27.25-26.55 and 26.00-25.60-24.70. Buy silver in between 27.55-25.00, targeting 28.35-28.90 and 29.50-30.10 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 25.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     27.55-27.25
S2     26.55
S3     26.00-25.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     27.90-28.50
R2     28.90
R3     29.50-30.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.037 Buy
20-DMA   27.46 Buy
50-DMA   26.26 Buy
100-DMA   26.30 Buy
200-DMA   25.68 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.436 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$69.59/bbl, intraday low of US$68.04/bbl and settled up by 0.654% to close at US$69.21/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 65.09 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 62.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 68.90-71.70 with stop loss at 71.70; targeting 68.50-67.90-67.00 and 66.10-65.30-64.70. Buy above 68.50-65.70 with risk daily closing below 65.70 and targeting 69.00 and 69.70-70.50-71.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.50-67.90
S2     67.00
S3     66.10-65.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.30
R2     69.70-70.50
R3     71.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.168 Sell
20-DMA   65.88 Buy
50-DMA   63.57 Buy
100-DMA   61.24 Buy
200-DMA   52.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.831 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.2103/EUR, high of US$1.2185/EUR and settled the day up by 0.328% to close at US$1.2166/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.2170-1.2490 targeting 1.2100-1.2070 and 1.2010-1.1960-1.1905 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2490. Buy above 1.2140-1.1900 with risk below 1.1900, targeting 1.2240-1.2300-1.2350 and 1.2400-1.2490.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2140-1.2100
S2     1.2070
S3     1.2010-1.1950

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.2170-1.2240
R2     1.2300
R3     1.2350-1.2400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.621 Buy
20-DMA   1.2175 Buy
50-DMA   1.2047 Buy
100-DMA   1.2039 Buy
200-DMA   1.1980 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.4082/GBP, high of US$1.4199/GBP and settled the day up by 0.412% to close at US$1.4160/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.4079) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.4150-1.4490 with targets at 1.4100-1.4065 and 1.4010-1.3900-1.3800 stop-loss should be 1.4360. Buy above 1.4150-1.3900 with targets 1.4200-1.4240-1.4300 and 1.4360-1.4400 with stop loss closing below 1.3700.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.4150-1.4090
S2     1.4065
S3     1.4010-1.3900

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4200
R2     1.4240
R3     1.4300-1.4360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.4079 Buy
50-DMA   1.3923 Buy
100-DMA   1.3869 Buy
200-DMA   1.3520 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY109.35/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.32/USD and settled the day down 0.705% at JPY109.47/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.70-106.50 with targets of 109.70-110.20 and 110.90-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.90-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 109.00-108.50-108.00 and 107.50-106.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.70-109.00
S2     108.50
S3     107.50-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.20-110.90
R2     111.70
R3     112.50-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.407 Buy
20-DMA   108.83 Sell
50-DMA   109.07 Sell
100-DMA   106.99 Sell
200-DMA   106.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   51.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Sell

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